Developments on the Ukrainian front are rapid, as at the very moment US President Donald Trump «dumps» Zelensky, arguing on the one hand that Ukraine must find another leader to negotiate a peace deal with Russia and on the other hand that he will not send any more Patriot missiles, intense activity is recorded on the diplomatic chessboard.
Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, is expected to meet today, Tuesday, October 20, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Oslo in the presence of representatives from Britain, Germany, Italy, France, the EU, and NATO, while he subsequently wishes to travel to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in order to present him with the final proposals reached by the West within the framework of a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian issue.
Information from Western media indicates that the proposal taking shape for Russia will foresee either a freeze of the conflict along the current front line with a guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO, or the concession of the entirety of Donbass to Russia in exchange for Ukraine’s accession to NATO.
It is obvious that Russia’s response to this proposal will determine developments.
Russia has made it clear that it seeks a comprehensive solution stipulating that Ukraine will be a neutral state, hence outside NATO, that it does not desire a temporary ceasefire, and that any agreement must take into account the realities established on the ground...
However, following contacts between Presidents Trump and Putin, as well as the unprecedented rift between the American President and his Ukrainian counterpart, a new backdrop has formed allowing for optimism on the diplomatic track of the Ukrainian conflict.
Although Dmitry Medvedev, the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia, maintains reservations, pointing out how easily the climate could once again be reversed by the USA...
Financial Times: The 2 proposals
Two options for ending the conflict in Ukraine have begun to be discussed in Europe, which may be proposed to the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, argues Financial Times (FT) columnist Gideon Rachman.
The Russian leader is to be offered either a freeze of the conflict along today’s front line, with guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO, or the surrender of all of Donbass to Russia by Kyiv, in exchange for Ukraine’s accession to the North Atlantic Alliance.
Rachman added that Europeans are increasingly pointing to the need for direct participation by the European Union in peace negotiations with Russia.
It is expected that a telephone call between European leaders and Putin may take place in the near future.
«Europeans are far less certain that Putin is prepared to accept either of these options. They continue, however, to consider the launch of direct negotiations with the Russians important», Gideon Rachman points out.
Zelensky does not want to concede Donbass
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, continues to state that he does not wish to concede Donbass in order to reach a peace agreement.
In doing so, according to the publication, he undermines peace initiatives and prolongs the conflict.
The Head of the Office of the Ukrainian President, Kyrylo Budanov, is also advising Zelensky not to make compromises with Russia regarding Donbass.
He considers that any concession on this specific issue would represent a reward for Moscow.
For his part, the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, characterized the outcome of the «special military operation» (SVO) as inevitable.
The Russian President emphasized that, at present, approximately 11% of the territory of Donbass remains under the control of Kyiv.
Concurrently, Russian war correspondent for KP.RU, Dmitry Steshin, reported that a general assault against three cities in Donbass is imminent.
New York Times: Witkoff will attempt to impose the surrender of Donbass on Zelensky
During the meeting in Oslo, the American delegation will attempt to impose the surrender of Donbass on Volodymyr Zelensky, reports the New York Times.
According to the report, the situation for Ukraine has now worsened, as Washington intends to convey to the head of the Kyiv regime that «it is not worth» insisting on maintaining control over the portion of Donbass still held by the Ukrainian armed forces.
At the same time, according to the publication, the United States intends to argue that Ukraine «can reap economic benefits if it drops its objections to the agreement, even if it is shaped largely on Russia’s terms».
«This is the message that the USA will convey to Zelensky on Tuesday [...]», the report states.
It is noted that Trump maintained that Zelensky could have concluded a peace agreement on favorable terms long ago.
What they say in Russia
President Vladimir Putin had already stated in September, during the plenary session of the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF), that chances exist for resolving the Ukrainian conflict.
The Russian leader also stressed that the issue of settling the conflict concerns, in the final analysis, exclusively Russia and Ukraine.
At the same time, he pointed out that there is the possibility of third countries participating in the process in a mediating role.
The First Deputy Chair of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, Svetlana Zhurova, warned Zelensky of the consequences of potentially rejecting Moscow’s terms.
Donbass cannot be Ukrainian
She emphasized that Donbass is never going to become Ukrainian, while residents of these specific regions already feel that they constitute part of Russia, which provides them with assistance.
«People in these regions, in any case, are never again going to be part of Ukraine.
What will Ukrainian security forces themselves do there?
Will they drive out all the inhabitants, leaving behind a deserted area?
Will they tell them: «Leave for Russia, since you like it so much»?
The people living today in these areas feel that they are in Russia.
Russia helps them and, of course, this is now a reality that cannot change.
Donbass can no longer, under any circumstances, be Ukrainian», maintained Svetlana Zhurova, First Deputy Chair of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs.
The EU continues to finance Kyiv
Despite the fact that the European Union speaks of the need for a peaceful resolution to the Ukrainian conflict, it continues to finance Ukraine and supply it with weapons.
Indeed, the Chancellor of Germany, Friedrich Merz, appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin to suspend strikes and commence negotiations.
For instance, the Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Rob Jetten, promised that several countries will increase their aid to Ukraine in the coming period.
However, Jetten did not clarify which specific states he was referring to.
Concurrently, at the EU summit in Brussels, European leaders discussed the possibility of granting a new loan of 70 billion euros to Ukraine.
However, it was not possible to agree on a specific financing mechanism.
The Prime Minister of Sweden, Ulf Kristersson, pointed out that, in the short term, Kyiv will need to seek other sources of financing.
For his part, the President of the European Council, António Costa, stated that European leaders tasked the European Commission with drawing up proposals to address Ukraine’s funding issues.
Axios: After Zelensky, Witkoff heads to Moscow
Steve Witkoff, the special envoy of the US President, intends to discuss with Russian leader Vladimir Putin the proposals for a peace plan formulated jointly with Ukraine and European partners.
As reported, Witkoff hopes to visit Russia and looks forward to a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, after first holding consultations in Oslo with Volodymyr Zelensky.
This was reported on platform X by Axios and Israeli television Channel 12 journalist Barak Ravid, citing sources.
According to the same information, Witkoff is currently en route to Oslo to meet with Zelensky on October 20.
Consultations are expected to include the Prime Minister of Norway, Jonas Gahr Støre, as well as representatives from Britain, Germany, Italy, France, the leadership of the European Union, and NATO.
«The aim of the meeting is to continue drafting a comprehensive proposal, which could form the basis for the resumption of negotiations with Russia», Ravid added.
Continuation of Miami
The scheduled meetings in Oslo constitute a continuation of talks held at Witkoff’s Shell Bay Club in the wider Miami area.
During those talks, Zelensky pledged to consider and advance a series of proposals aimed at formulating a framework for a comprehensive and lasting peace agreement, the official added.
The American official stated that representatives of the USA, Ukraine, and Europe worked together last week on refining the proposals.
«Steve and Jared also spoke with President Zelensky on Sunday to assess the progress made and discuss next steps», the American official stated.
The proposal to Putin
As reported by a source who spoke to the journalist, after Oslo, Witkoff looks forward to a visit to Russia, where he hopes to discuss with Putin the proposals formulated jointly with Ukraine and European partners.
Last week, representatives of the USA, Ukraine, and Europe worked at a technical level on refining these proposals.
Among them is included the release of 72-year-old US citizen Stephen Hubbard, who has been sentenced in Russia for participating in combat operations on the side of the Ukrainian armed forces.
«US President Donald Trump instructed that intensive efforts be made to draw up a comprehensive peace proposal, with the participation of Ukraine and Europe.
The next step will be to ascertain whether this work can serve as the foundation for substantive negotiations with Russia», the source told the journalist.
There is much work to be done
«These discussions are continuing and much work remains.
The goal of President Trump is clear: to stop the bloodshed, to end the war, and to create the conditions for a lasting peace that will benefit Ukraine, Russia, Europe, and the United States», Ravid reported.
According to the American official, discussions focus on two parallel tracks:
1. Securing the future of Ukraine
Creating the conditions for a sovereign, secure, and prosperous Ukrainian state.
This includes credible security guarantees, the European integration of Ukraine, and a comprehensive post-war economic framework addressing the country’s financing needs and creating opportunities for long-term growth and investments.
2. Creating the conditions for lasting peace
Formulating a comprehensive proposal toward Russia addressing the issues necessary to resolve to end the war.
The proposal will also provide for the creation of a new and stable security architecture between Russia and Europe, while examining possibilities for post-war economic cooperation.
Kushner remotely
Jared Kushner, son-in-law of the American President and also special envoy, will not accompany Witkoff in person this time, as he has contracted the flu.
He will participate in consultations remotely.
On October 1, Putin stated that Russia would like hostilities in Ukraine to end as soon as possible through a peaceful settlement.
Concurrently, the Russian President added that Moscow is ready for negotiations, yet does not perceive a corresponding will on the part of the Kyiv regime.
Le Figaro: The USA is pushing Ukraine into capitulation
The White House is constantly intensifying pressure on Ukraine, seeking the conclusion of an agreement under terms considered in Europe to be favorable to Moscow and amounting almost to a capitulation of Kyiv, reports French newspaper Le Figaro.
Examining potential further developments, the publication points out that the European Union is now called upon to decide whether it is capable of continuing to support Ukraine without the American backing it enjoyed until recently.
«Washington’s shift in policy puts Europeans with their backs against the wall: either they drastically boost their own aid to Kyiv or they risk facing the defeat of Ukraine and the strengthening of Russia», the report states.
It is recalled that recently, relations between Washington and Kyiv have deteriorated significantly.
The reason was the refusal of Volodymyr Zelensky to halt strikes against Russian oil refineries, as demanded by the United States.
As analysts point out, ahead of the midterm congressional elections, Donald Trump considers it important to achieve a decrease in diesel oil prices in the USA.
This is precisely the reason, according to the same analysts, why he exempted trade in Russian petroleum products from sanctions.
In return, Moscow promised to supply hundreds of thousands of tons of diesel oil to the American market.
However, the mere conclusion of the so-called «diesel deal» between Moscow and Washington triggered a storm of reactions in Europe and Ukraine.
The head of the Kyiv regime, Volodymyr Zelensky, for example, openly described this specific agreement as a betrayal on the part of Donald Trump.
Medvedev’s warning
In the statement by US President Donald Trump regarding his reluctance to impose sanctions against Russia, the operative word is «now», says Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, who published his thoughts on VKontakte.
As reported earlier, Trump refused to put into effect certain provisions of the so-called «crushing sanctions» against Russia.
These are tariffs that could reach up to 500% on goods.
The American President pointed out that tightening restrictive measures could lead to undesirable outcomes within the framework of negotiations over Ukraine.
According to Medvedev, although Trump’s statements on sanctions carry a significant degree of political courage, in reality these specific sanctions could be put into force even years later, by the successors of the current American President.
«It is very likely that our grandchildren will live under the enforcement regime of this law, as occurred with the notorious Jackson-Vanik amendment, which remained in effect for nearly 40 years», he assessed.
«What conclusions emerge from all this?
Very simple.
We must recognize that relations between Russia and the USA have once again suffered severe damage, which will last for the coming decades.
We were, are, and will remain systemic adversaries», Medvedev said.
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