Nearly half of Muslims and Jews consider leaving France if Marine Le Pen wins - What a poll shows

Nearly half of Muslim and Jewish respondents in a major poll in France declare they would consider leaving the country if Marine Le Pen wins the 2027 presidential elections. According to an exclusive survey by Ifop for the French magazine Marianne, 46% of respondents who self-identify as Muslim answered that they would think about leaving France and settling in another country under a Marine Le Pen presidency. Among them, 20% stated they would definitely make such a move. Across the general population, the corresponding figure stood at 21%, capturing the differing perceptions of political developments among individual social groups. Concurrently, the survey records anxieties surrounding identity, the secular character of the French state, and potential reactions in the event of a National Rally (Rassemblement National – RN) victory.

81% of Muslims fear an increase in discrimination

Answers regarding the potential social consequences of a Marine Le Pen electoral victory present particular interest. 81% of Muslims participating in the survey estimate that her victory would lead to increased discrimination against their community. In addition, 27% stated they would consider concealing their religious identity in daily life. Among respondents, 18% mentioned they would stop wearing the headscarf in public spaces. These findings fit within a broader climate of concern regarding France's political and social trajectory under a change of government, without, however, constituting a standalone forecast of how social relations will evolve after the elections.

Who else declares they would consider leaving France

This trend is not confined to Muslim voters. According to the poll, 40% of younger French voter age cohorts, 43% of voters for the left-wing party La France Insoumise (LFI), and 44% of Jewish respondents stated they would consider leaving the country in the event of a Marine Le Pen victory. It is noteworthy that the percentage of Jewish respondents willing to consider such an option sits close to that of Muslims, despite Marine Le Pen having repeatedly framed her party as a protective force for the Jewish community in France. The survey also recorded heightened willingness for forms of civil disobedience among certain respondent groups. Significant percentages stated they could refuse to comply with laws they deem unjust.

Marine Le Pen's stance on Islam and the Jewish community

Marine Le Pen has advocated for stricter policies regarding Islamic religious expression in France, while simultaneously attempting to present herself as a defender of the Jewish community. In 2024, she had stated characteristically: "The best shield for French people of Jewish faith is the National Rally. It is the only movement possessing the will, conviction, and means to combat Islamic fundamentalism, which constitutes the greatest threat they face." Despite this explicit stance, 44% of Jewish respondents declared they would consider departing France in the event of her electoral victory. This finding highlights that concerns recorded in the survey do not necessarily follow the political dividing lines that parties themselves attempt to draw.

Intervention by François Kraus

François Kraus, director of the Politics and Current Affairs department at Ifop, described the climate reflected in the research as follows: "The assumption of power by the leading candidate in opinion polls may create significant obstacles and induces high levels of fear and a sense of insecurity." This specific assessment captures the expectations and fears of respondents within a hypothetical electoral scenario. It does not, however, constitute proof that policies eventually implemented will necessarily carry the consequences they predict.

Tougher immigration policy and headscarf restrictions

The National Rally has for years advocated tighter controls on immigration control, priority for French citizens in access to housing and employment, as well as restrictions on the use of the Islamic headscarf in public spaces. Marine Le Pen has stated she would not proceed with an immediate ban on the headscarf upon taking power, but would seek to impose broader restrictions through a national referendum. Concurrently, previous surveys by Ifop have recorded heightened religiosity and greater acceptance of stricter interpretations of Islam among younger Muslims in France. In specific hypothetical scenarios, significant percentages of respondents appeared to prioritize Islamic rules over French civil law on issues such as inheritance or ritual slaughter of animals. Remix News had published a related report on that study during the previous year.

The right sees integration failure

Politicians and commentators on the right treated the findings as evidence of integration failures and as an opportunity to reignite debate around the consequences of demographic changes in France. This interpretation represents a political reading of the results rather than an autonomous conclusion proven by the poll. On the political battlefield, Marine Le Pen has frequently appeared leading in first-round voting intention polls for the 2027 presidential elections. These specific findings, however, are insufficient to presage the final electoral outcome.

Intentions versus actual migration

There is a critical parameter to consider when reading the results: declaring an intention to leave a country does not equal a concrete emigration plan. Many voters in various countries declare they will leave their homeland if a political candidate they oppose prevails. In practice, however, executing such a decision is far more complex. Family ties, employment, relocation costs, financial obligations, and prospects of settling in another country represent factors that can make such a choice exceptionally difficult. Therefore, the figures of 46% for Muslims and 44% for Jews reflect a declared willingness or thought in a hypothetical scenario and do not mean that corresponding percentages of the two communities are actually planning to leave France. The core conclusion of the survey is that the prospect of a Marine Le Pen presidency causes deep concern among specific social and political groups. Whether this anxiety translates into actual emigration decisions remains a separate and distinctly more complex matter.

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