Tax revenues of the federal budget of Russia from oil and gas exploitation, which correspond to roughly 20 percent of total state revenues, are estimated to record an annual increase of 10 percent in October, reaching 1 trillion rubles, an amount equivalent to 11.97 billion dollars, according to calculations by Reuters.
Revenues from oil and gas taxation are expected to more than double in October compared to September. A key driver of this rise is the quarterly payments of the additional tax imposed on profits from oil production. Even excluding this specific tax charge, revenues for October are projected to exceed those of the previous month by about 164 billion rubles, recording an increase of 36 percent.
The estimates by Reuters are based on data concerning oil and natural gas production, refined volumes, as well as supplies to the domestic market and international markets.
Dependence on natural gas sales
Russia, which constitutes the third-largest producer and exporter of oil worldwide, after the United States and Saudi Arabia, relies on oil and gas sales for a significant part of its state revenues.
These revenues are also a key source of funding for its military campaign in Ukraine.
The rise in international oil prices has taken on major proportions, as the conflict in the Middle East causes disruptions to the smooth supply of the market. Nevertheless, the additional revenues expected to arise from higher prices are estimated to be partially limited by the projected 5 percent decline in Russian oil production in the third quarter of 2026, compared to the corresponding quarter of 2025.
For 2026, the Russian budget projects revenues of 8.918 trillion rubles from oil and natural gas, out of total state revenues amounting to 40.283 trillion rubles.
Despite the expected monthly recovery, total revenues of Russia from oil and natural gas for the period of January-October 2026 are estimated to stand at 6.45 trillion rubles. This amount corresponds to a 14 percent decrease compared to the same period of the previous year, according to calculations by Reuters.
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