Should the adverse scenario materialize, this year's decline will exceed 15.8%, generating fresh pressures in a market already heavily reliant on imported quantities
Climate change is beginning to pose a severe threat to one of the most critical agricultural sectors in the Philippines, with coffee farmers bracing for an exceptionally difficult period. According to estimates by the Philippine Coffee Board Inc. (PCBI), green coffee production could drop below 30,000 metric tons in 2026, a development that would mark a significant reversal compared to the previous year. In 2025, production had reached 35,650 tons, recording an 11.5% increase over the 31,980 tons produced in 2024. Should the adverse scenario materialize, this year's decline will exceed 15.8%, generating fresh pressures in a market already heavily reliant on imported quantities.
"Coffee is leaving the plains" - The warning raising concern
PCBI Director Pacita "Chit" Juan warns that rising temperatures are drastically altering cultivation conditions. Regions that for decades were considered suitable for specific coffee varieties now face increasingly severe operational constraints. According to her, certain crops may require altitudes ranging between 1,800 and 2,000 meters to maintain suitable temperature conditions. The core issue is that available agricultural land at such high elevations remains extremely limited across the Philippines. Consequently, relocating plantations does not offer a straightforward solution; it demands new capital investments, adequate infrastructure, land access, and years before new plants yield crops. The threat is further magnified by the probability of intense El Niño events, which can intensify heatwaves and prolonged droughts.
Production on the brink of reversal - Which varieties face threats
Coffee production in the Philippines relies primarily on the Robusta variety, which dominates the domestic market. Data from 2025 highlights the nation's high dependence on specific cultivars:
Robusta: 27,272 tons, representing roughly 76.5% of total output.
Arabica: 5,953 tons, accounting for approximately 16.7%.
Excelsa: 2,032 tons, making up about 5.7%.
Liberica: 392 tons, comprising roughly 1.1%.
The Arabica variety is exceptionally sensitive to elevated temperatures and typically thrives in cooler microclimates, rendering it highly vulnerable to shifting climate patterns. While Robusta demonstrates generally higher heat tolerance, it remains susceptible to prolonged droughts and extreme weather phenomena. Agricultural experts are actively searching for measures to safeguard yields before climate pressures inflict heavier losses across the agricultural sector.
Mindanao holds the key to national coffee production
An additional factor heightening concern is the geographic concentration of coffee farming. The island of Mindanao serves as the heartbeat of Philippine coffee production, accounting for approximately 83.63% of total national output. Luzon follows with 9.18%, while the Visayas contribute roughly 7.2%. This heavy geographic concentration means that severe climate-induced disruptions in Mindanao could disproportionately impact the entire national industry. The ramifications extend beyond immediate harvest volumes: a sustained decline in output risks eroding farmer incomes, local processing enterprises, and commercial supply chains.
Coffee fails to cover domestic demand - Reliance on imports
The situation grows even more concerning when evaluating domestic consumption requirements. The Philippines requires between 150,000 and 200,000 metric tons of coffee annually, whereas local harvests cover only a small fraction of national needs. According to estimates cited by the PCBI, local production satisfies roughly 15% of national demand, leaving the vast majority supplied through foreign imports. This creates a dual pressure for the country. On one hand, climate change threatens to further constrict domestic output; on the other, the national economy remains exposed to international price fluctuations, freight costs, and global supply shifts. If domestic production continues to contract, the necessity for imported coffee will escalate further.
Race against time to save plantations - The varieties offering hope
Confronted with these systemic challenges, the PCBI recommends expanding the cultivation of heat-resistant cultivars. Efforts center on Liberica, Excelsa, and Robusta varieties, which under appropriate conditions can be cultivated at lower elevations ranging from 200 to 300 meters. This strategy could mitigate the need to relocate plantations into mountainous terrains, preserving productive activities across existing agricultural lands. Concurrently, members of the ASEAN Coffee Federation are collaborating to promote resilient varieties and climate adaptation techniques. However, transitioning between varieties offers no instant remedy, as every crop imposes distinct water, soil, and thermal requirements, while switching cultivars incurs significant financial costs for smallholder farmers.
Global warning: Will coffee become a more expensive daily luxury?
The crisis threatening the Philippines highlights a problem with international dimensions. Coffee cultivation depends on relatively precise climatic parameters that are shifting as global average temperatures rise. Elevated temperatures, altered rainfall patterns, and extreme weather events risk shrinking suitable growing regions, elevating production costs, and compromising harvest quality. This does not imply that a potential drop in Philippine output will single-handedly trigger a global coffee shortage, as the international market depends on far larger producing nations and a complex web of economic and climatic variables. Nevertheless, the country's situation serves as a prime example of the environmental pressures confronting agrarian economies. The coffee that millions of consumers consider an essential part of daily life is becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate change.
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