A reversal is taking place in international oil markets, with prices returning to an upward trajectory despite initial losses and expectations of de-escalation following Donald Trump's announcement of an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine. Claims by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky regarding continued Russian strikes on energy infrastructure, Kyiv's warnings of retaliation, and uncertainty surrounding the implementation of the agreement sustain tension, while the Middle East remains another hazardous front for the global energy market. With Brent crude recovering above $105 per barrel, expectations for cheaper energy fade, while controversy over the Trump ceasefire brings risks to global oil supplies back into focus. It is noted that December Brent futures are rising 1% to $106, while November futures for American crude (WTI) gain 0.97% to $92.74.
Zelensky's... rant
The Ukrainian President welcomed the proposal for an energy ceasefire, clarifying, however, that its implementation requires a corresponding commitment from Moscow. In statements today, Monday (10/12/2026), he maintained that Russian attacks continued even after the US President's announcement, citing strikes on energy facilities and drones entering Ukrainian airspace. "For now, this is Putin's answer to Trump," Zelensky noted characteristically, alleging that the attacks threaten his country's energy infrastructure. He maintained that Ukrainian forces refrained from striking Russian refineries overnight, while a Russian missile struck a natural gas production facility in Ukraine. At the same time, he stated that the country faces daily power outages due to strikes on its energy infrastructure. His warning carries particular weight ahead of winter, when increased heating and electricity demand could further strain Ukraine's already tested energy grid. "This winter, if Russia does not agree to an energy ceasefire, we will respond," the Ukrainian President stated via video call at the Warsaw Security Forum. Zelensky further maintained that Ukraine has proposed similar measures in the past, repeating that it stands ready to halt attacks on Russian energy installations provided Moscow commits to doing the same.
"Putin does not read Trump's Truth Social"
The controversy surrounding the ceasefire is accompanied by sharp statements from the Ukrainian President regarding his Russian counterpart. Zelensky stated that Putin "does not read Truth Social," Trump's social media platform, implying that the US President's announcements are insufficient to ensure an end to attacks. Trump announced on Sunday (10/11/2026) that the energy ceasefire takes effect immediately and that both sides have agreed not to strike energy facilities. He did not, however, provide further details regarding the terms of implementation. Zelensky appeared taken by surprise by the announcement, stating that the proposal was new to him as well. Ukraine, as he mentioned, is ready to accept it provided Russia likewise commits to halting attacks. By Monday morning (10/12/2026), Moscow had not publicly confirmed acceptance of the deal, fueling uncertainty around the fate of the ceasefire agreement.
Oil rebounds
The ceasefire announcement had initially exerted downward pressure on oil prices, as investors assessed that war de-escalation and the potential for increased Russian energy exports could boost supply. However, initial losses reversed during the trading session. December futures contracts for Brent crude rose 0.69% to $105.44 per barrel, while November contracts for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) logged a 0.54% gain to $92.35. Earlier, both benchmarks had dropped by approximately 1.5%. The development captures market uncertainty: on one hand, the prospect of expanded supply could temper price pressure; on the other, ongoing hostilities and risks to energy production and transit sustain concerns. However, prices depend not only on developments along the Russian-Ukrainian front, but also on the trajectory of the conflict in the Middle East, which continues to influence global supply expectations.
Trump–Putin deal on Russian diesel
At the center also lies the deal announced by Trump on Friday (10/09/2026), according to which Russia will supply additional quantities of diesel to international markets. The US President maintained that Moscow will supply over 4 million tons of diesel following an understanding with Putin. According to details presented, deliveries would begin immediately with over 300,000 tons, with additional volumes following in November and subsequently depending on the operational status of Russian oil refineries. Neil Atkinson, former head of the oil industry division at the International Energy Agency, appeared cautious regarding the market impact of the agreement. As he noted, the quantities in question are relatively small, and the deal is not expected to fundamentally alter the market outlook. While the prospect of increased Russian supplies could offer relief for refined petroleum products, it does not eliminate risks linked to military conflicts and supply chain disruptions.
Middle East keeps markets on edge
Concurrently, the situation in the Middle East adds new variables of uncertainty for the energy market. According to Saudi Arabia's state news agency, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held a telephone consultation with his Saudi counterpart, Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdullah, regarding recent regional escalation and efforts to address it. Al Jazeera also reported that Araghchi stated Iran stands ready to facilitate dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthi rebels. The diplomatic contacts are taking place in an environment of heightened tension, as the US–Iran conflict and attacks across the wider Gulf region continue to weigh on security assessments for global energy supplies.
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