Developments surrounding Israel's recognition of Somaliland are acquiring broader geopolitical dimensions, as analysts estimate that the moves of Benjamin Netanyahu's government are not limited to creating a bridgehead against the Ansar Allah in Yemen and reinforcing the Israeli presence in the Red Sea. On the contrary, Turkey now appears to be part of Israel's strategic frame, as Ankara emerges as one of the primary opponents to Israeli plans in the wider region. The Horn of Africa, Somalia, Somaliland, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Aegean are forming a new geopolitical arc of confrontation, in which Greece and Cyprus are acquiring ever-greater significance.
Somaliland seeks Israeli support against Turkey
Already about a year ago, Mohamed Osman Fadal, senior foreign policy advisor to the president of Somaliland, stated that the region needs air defense systems to counter Turkish F-16s and unmanned aerial vehicles stationed in Mogadishu. He directly requested Israel's support in the conflict with Turkey. This specific stance reflects the prevailing mindset within Somaliland's self-proclaimed administration and simultaneously aligns with Netanyahu's ambitions. The common denominator is preparing for a potential clash with the de facto government of Somalia, which already possesses significant military capabilities developed with Turkish military support.
Turkey already has a military footprint in Somalia
Somalia's official army possesses special forces and naval units trained by Turkey. At the same time, it has at its disposal T129 ATAK attack helicopters, the well-known Bayraktar drones, as well as M48 and M60 main battle tanks. The Turkish military presence in Somalia is therefore not a theoretical scenario, but a reality that creates new conditions for Israel. Tel Aviv's recognition of Somaliland thus acquires special significance, as it can serve as a base for further expanding Israeli regional influence in an area where Turkey has already invested substantial military and diplomatic capital.
President of Somalia denounces Israeli plans for naval base
Somali President Sheikh Hassan Mohamud recently stated that Israel plans to establish a naval base at the port of Berbera in Somaliland, as well as utilize the region's airport. In an interview with Al Jazeera, Mohamud warned that Mogadishu would oppose any Israeli military presence on territory it considers part of Somalia. «Under no circumstances will we allow an Israeli presence in the country, given the way Israel treats Somaliland,» he argued. This development increases the risk of military escalation in the Horn of Africa, with Somalia on one side and Somaliland, backed by potential Israeli support, on the other.
The Horn of Africa could become the first Israel–Turkey front
Conditions are gradually driving the involved parties to bolster their military capabilities. Consequently, it cannot be ruled out that the Horn of Africa will become the first open front in a broader Israeli-Turkish confrontation. If the clash with separatist forces in Somalia constitutes the first line, the next question is what comes next. The answer points directly to the Eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean, where Greece is incrementally strengthening its defense cooperation with Israel.
Turkish military buildup across from Samos
According to reports, in late August Ankara transferred the 51st Commando Brigade, consisting of approximately 2,000 professional special forces soldiers, from Hozat in eastern Turkey to the Söke area of Aydın province. This location sits directly opposite Samos, giving particular significance to the deployment. This deployment forms part of a broader pattern of military mobility in the Aegean, at a time when Athens is accelerating the upgrade of its defense capabilities.
Greece purchases Israeli weapons and builds "Achilles' Shield"
Earlier in the spring, Greece proceeded with the acquisition of Israeli weapon systems valued at approximately 2.3 billion NIS. The package includes Elbit's PULS multiple rocket launcher system, training missiles, precision-guided munitions, loitering munitions, and ten years of logistical support. The purchase is part of the Greek blueprint to modernize its Armed Forces through 2030. Concurrently, Athens plans to spend around €28 billion through 2036 to construct an integrated air defense and military protection network modeled on Israel's systems, known locally as the "Achilles' Shield". The same framework encompasses the procurement of up to 40 F-35 fighter jets from the US, as well as frigates from France and Italy.
Athens now looks at the Turkish threat as well
Many analysts estimate that Greece pursued these specific moves in response to new threats stemming from the US–Israel conflict with Iran, particularly following Iranian attacks against US allies in the Persian Gulf. However, behind the Greek military upgrade lies another key factor: Turkey's growing prowess in unmanned aerial vehicles. Turkey has evolved into a major power in the field of UAVs, creating a new balance of power in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean.
New Greece–Israel–Cyprus–India geopolitical axis
At the same time, Greece is preparing to establish a new "Mediterranean Quadrilateral Dialogue" alongside India, Israel, and Cyprus. This new partnership could serve as a counterweight to the so-called "Mecca Pact," which involves Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan. Thus, two distinct geopolitical axes are gradually taking shape, extending beyond defense to encompass energy, transportation, commerce, and maritime trade routes.
The grand battle for IMEC and the new "Silk Road"
The region is entering a new tier of geopolitical competition as emerging blocs prepare for a future redistribution of spheres of influence. Israel, a primary backer of the IMEC project, views Turkey as an opponent due to Ankara's strategic position along the new "Silk Road" transit path. Control over commercial and energy corridors running from Asia to Europe has taken on paramount strategic value. In this environment, Somaliland and Greece appear to be acquiring critical roles within Israeli plans aimed at curbing Turkish regional influence and that of its partners.
From the Horn of Africa to the Aegean
The emerging landscape is one of expanded geopolitical rivalry stretching from the Horn of Africa through to the Eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean. Turkey's military presence in Somalia, Israel's outreach to Somaliland, Greek–Israeli defense cooperation, and new regional alliances create a complex web of friction. The critical question now is whether these maneuvers will remain within the realm of deterrence and geopolitical leverage, or if they will trigger an open military clash between Israel and Turkey, with the Horn of Africa, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Aegean serving as the potential operational theaters.
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