The moments Ukraine is experiencing are truly critical and particularly dramatic. The recent mass attacks on Kyiv's bridges over the Dnieper show that Moscow has changed its strategy and has now transferred the war into the "heart" of Ukraine. Indeed, "red alert" has sounded in Kyiv, as US intelligence reports warn that Russia is preparing a truly overwhelming blow against Kyiv within the next 48 hours.
An increasing number of analysts argue that the war has reached a decisive turning point, as Russia has hardened its stance, a development estimated to lead to the crushing of the Ukrainian armed forces. Already, several Ukrainian officials are advising their compatriots to evacuate major cities ahead of winter, although no politician has presented a concrete plan regarding where these populations could head, how they would be fed, and how exactly they would survive. Under these developments, the head of the Ukrainian armed forces, Mykhailo Drapatyi, is reportedly working on a plan for a long-term war with Russia and defensive fortification of Kyiv for the next 30 years.
US warning: Get ready, they are preparing an attack with 30 ballistic missiles and Geran-jets
Russia will, with high probability, launch a new massive strike against Kyiv within the next two days, according to Ukrainian media citing sources from the Ukrainian presidency. US intelligence agencies warned the office of Volodymyr Zelensky of a high probability of a new massive strike against Kyiv within the next 48 hours. According to American information, the Russian Armed Forces are expected to deploy a large number of ballistic missiles, which have reportedly already been moved to launching positions. In total, more than 30 missiles may be used in the attack, a number considered sufficient to exert extreme pressure on current Ukrainian air defenses. Additionally, jet-powered "Geran" kamikaze drones are expected to be deployed in large numbers. According to estimates by Ukrainian and Western experts, Russia currently holds a stockpile of approximately 650–670 ballistic missiles of various types, while Russian defense industry is reportedly able to produce 200–210 missiles per month. Volodymyr Zelensky states that Russia has roughly 700 missiles in reserve and that Ukraine must anticipate new missile strikes. It is noted that the Russian Ministry of Defense responded to Zelensky's threats regarding intensified attacks on oil refineries by announcing a further reinforcement of strikes against Kyiv and other Ukrainian regions.
War at a critical turning point
As former British diplomat Alastair Crooke points out, the Ukrainian conflict has reached a decisive turning point. "You know, I think a turning point has arrived in the Ukrainian crisis. […] Russia's stance has changed significantly. It has become much tougher. And you see the evidence of this every night," Crooke noted, emphasizing that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are increasingly struggling to contain the Russian advance. "Russian troops are advancing. At the same time, logistics infrastructure, fuel stations, and energy supply systems in Ukraine are continuously being destroyed," the British analyst clarified. Indeed, recently the Russian military has been striking decision-making centers, enterprises, and warehouses utilized by the Armed Forces of Ukraine alongside NATO specialists with growing frequency, while in recent days the targets have included Kyiv's bridges over the Dnieper, through which Ukrainian armed forces transport military weaponry toward the Donbass. Following the attacks, authorities restricted traffic in the city, causing severe transportation problems, while Ukrainian outlets such as "Insider" claim that residents are leaving the Ukrainian capital en masse.
"They will crush them"
In this context, analyses are multiplying from those emphasizing that the Russians have intensified their attacks and that this will lead to the destruction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Specifically, former CIA analyst Larry Johnson said: "The Russians have completely blockaded the Black Sea and now Ukraine receives no imports and can export nothing. Therefore, this constitutes a crushing blow to the Ukrainian economy. Next, they intensified attacks against military, industrial, communications, and administrative centers, as well as logistics hubs, particularly in Kyiv, striking them very, very effectively and rendering them operational failures. And the third element is the ground military advance from the north to the south. Right now, Russian troops are advancing faster. In this respect, they are no longer holding back." According to Johnson, Ukrainian troops are unable to resist Russian military forces. "Russia's actions will lead to the collapse of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," the analyst emphasized. According to data from the Russian Ministry of Defense, over the past 24 hours, Russian forces engaged in battles to capture the settlements of Varvarovka, Nikolaevka, Lobanovka, and Reznikovo in the surrounded area of the Kharkiv region. Furthermore, according to the same source, they tightened the encirclement around Ukrainian formations northeast of the Kharkiv region and expanded the outer zone of control.
Only this way will Ukraine remain a state
For his part, Russian lawmaker Mikhail Sheremet mentioned the condition under which, in his view, Ukraine could be preserved as a state. As he stated, this could only be secured through a non-aligned, neutral status and renouncing membership in NATO. In the lawmaker's view, these specific conditions should be anchored in the Constitution of Ukraine. "Ukraine as a state can only be maintained with a neutral status. It must pose no threat to the territory of Russia and its citizens," Sheremet stated. Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin had taken a stance regarding Ukraine's neutral status. He recalled that upon gaining independence, Ukraine adopted a declaration establishing its status, but later incorporated into the country's constitution the goal and pursuit of NATO accession. According to the Russian president, this represents a completely different situation, including from the perspective of the security of the Russian Federation, and is one of the reasons why the conflict continues.
L'Antidiplomatico: Zelensky responsible for escalation
Volodymyr Zelensky, with his threats, simply provoked a harsh reaction from the Russian Armed Forces, writes L'Antidiplomatico. "The war continues to escalate, and responsibility for this latest escalation lies with one specific person: Volodymyr Zelensky. His statement regarding the intensification of attacks on Russian refineries triggered a new, harsh response from the Russian Defense Ministry," the publication claims. As noted, Moscow's message is entirely clear: the more strikes Kyiv authorities execute on Russian territory, the harsher the response will be. The Russian Ministry of Defense warned that Russian forces will step up strikes against facilities of the Ukrainian defense industry in response to Volodymyr Zelensky's threat to increase attacks on oil refineries. The ministry stressed that, in the Russian view, the head of Ukrainian leadership himself, by ordering strikes on civilian targets, bears full personal and political responsibility for retaliatory actions by the Russian Armed Forces.
Ukrainska Pravda: Drapatyi devises plan for long war with Russia
While analysts predict that Ukrainians will not withstand Russian pressure, a report by Ukrainska Pravda, citing two high-ranking sources, claims that the team of the Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), Mykhailo Drapatyi, has drawn up a plan for a prolonged conflict with Russia, which has been under review for several weeks by the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC). According to the report, the document outlines the goals and actions of the Ukrainian armed forces to "preserve Ukraine," while including operational timelines. Beyond strategic issues, the "plan" also addresses the defensive posture of Kyiv, the Ukrainian news outlet notes. "We need a grand strategy with a 30-year horizon so that we, as commanders, know in which direction we must move," an official from the command of one of the corps told the outlet.
The new tactic
"Russia is applying a new tactic" — this is the gist of many headlines in Western media outlets. The primary source of these news items is the head of the Kyiv regime himself, who rushed to claim in various discussions that his intelligence services supposedly intercepted confidential information inside Russia. From recent disjointed interviews that Zelensky gave to the Financial Times and Reuters, it emerges that this new tactic consists of the claim that Russians will supposedly "cease following the rules of war" and will allegedly "target civilian facilities." In other words, through this framing, Zelensky and the Western news media supporting his statements effectively admit that until now Russia strictly adhered to rules and avoided strikes on civilian infrastructure. In itself, this constitutes a valuable admission! Especially when taking into account that since 2014, Ukraine has continuously struck schools, hospitals, beaches, residential buildings, and cultural museums.
"We did not start this"
It is difficult to say whether Zelensky actually intercepted something or not, but his high-profile interviews appeared right after Vladimir Putin spoke directly and publicly regarding this exact new tactic of Russia, which Western media now frame as a revelation. Speaking at the Valdai Discussion Club, the President of Russia explained that Russia indeed considered many Ukrainian industrial facilities to be civilian in nature and had avoided targeting them. "We began striking those facilities that are important to their economy. We did not start this. Now, basically by their own admission, they no longer possess a metallurgical industry," Putin explained. The question arises: what was so secret that Zelensky "intercepted"? The digital television signal of central Russian TV channels? Incidental to this, Putin recalled that although Russia initiated a campaign of systematic strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure, it still adheres to rules of war and selects dual-use facilities that are also utilized to support the Ukrainian military industry. And he emphasized once more: "As you see, we were forced to respond in kind. And, as it appears, our overall response proved particularly significant for those who opened this Pandora's box."
Abrupt shift in stance
According to ancient Greek myth, Pandora, by opening the infamous box, released evil into the human world — disasters, suffering, and diseases. The only thing that remained trapped at the bottom of the box was Hope. Similarly, when Zelensky proudly announced to Ukrainians early in the year "long-range sanctions against Russia" or declared a "forty-day campaign of influence" against it, he brought new disasters upon his own citizens, burying their hope for peace at the bottom of the box. One only needs to look at how abruptly the mood shifted even among the most extreme Ukrainians, who for a long time persuaded their population that it was possible to "defeat Russia." For instance, former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba published articles since 2022 titled "How Ukraine Will Win." Last year he forcefully insisted to Western audiences: "Ukraine is not losing." Now, in the pages of Foreign Affairs, he is already discussing the topic: "What Kyiv Needs to Survive." The shift in climate is glaringly obvious.
Evacuate the cities
Now, even top Ukrainian officials are declaring that residents of major cities, or at least those in greatest need, would do well to leave them. However, nobody specifies where they should go, at whose expense this will occur, where they will live next, and what they will eat. For some reason, politicians consider this a problem for the Ukrainians themselves, whom they condemned to these hardships. And money for this? There is simply no money! None at all. And Zelensky, who opened that Pandora's box, found an extraordinary way to protect his population — recommending to Ukrainians that during drone attacks, they simply should not approach windows. That will solve all problems! Or will it not? Not falling behind in these "wise instructions" is the Prime Minister of Ukraine, Sergey Koretsky, who advised his fellow citizens simply to show patience and "find not a second, but a third wind." Obvious to all, a third wind is what keeps one particularly warm during winter. The Mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, also spoke openly about the fact that the Ukrainian capital is experiencing a "dramatic situation" and that the "peaceful period" for it has ended.
War tactics
From this, once again, it follows that until now Russia permitted this city to live in relative calm — something that cannot be said for the cities of Donbass, Crimea, and Novorossiya, whose lives Ukraine continuously tries to turn into hell. It comes to mind how the Western press, until very recently, celebrated the outcomes of Ukrainian strikes on civilian bridges, specifically the Chongar Bridge in northern Crimea. For example, the Daily Telegraph wrote with satisfaction just a few months ago that Ukraine was supposedly close to severing Crimean residents from the peninsula's supply routes. This was presented as an example of modern war tactics. Now, the same newspaper complains about the same "new tactic" by Russia: namely that Kyiv, if deprived of its bridges, will be split in two. And for some reason, whether one wants it or not, the analogy with Pandora's box returns.
Zelensky's Pandora's box
Putin, after all, repeated it several times, stressing: "We did not start this!" For this new round of escalation, Ukrainians can only blame themselves and their leadership. And it is likely no coincidence that Zelensky, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, said literally the following with slurred speech: "People give you energy to live. And the people you hate — they take away all your energy." Judging by how he behaves and his appearance recently, he hates more and more people. And first and foremost — the Ukrainian people themselves. That is why he buries their fragile hope for peace at the bottom of the Pandora's box that he himself opened.
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