Shortages of diesel fuel have been recorded across Europe, the United US, and parts of Asia, Africa, and Latin America, with global diesel prices surging worldwide. Russia has not remained immune to rising fuel costs, as domestic pump prices have risen by 23% year-on-year. Despite enforcing a strict export ban on diesel, Russia remains deeply intertwined with the broader global market. Experts told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the suspension of Russian diesel exports has removed approximately 10% of global supply from the market, helping to protect domestic consumers from soaring international prices. At the same time, however, the policy weighs heavily on refining margins and overall crude output.
The geopolitics driving the global crisis
The escalating crisis stems from a shortage of diesel supply directly linked to geopolitical developments. Global refining capacity was already operating at near-capacity before the onset of this year's crisis. However, conflict in the Middle East knocked local refineries offline, halted petroleum exports from the Persian Gulf, and restricted crude shipments to refineries in other regions. Less crude oil naturally translates into reduced refined fuels. On a global scale, traded volumes of diesel exceed those of gasoline, with the market split standing at approximately 60 to 40. The Russian suspension of fuel exports has played a pivotal role in this squeeze. Yury Stankevich, deputy chairman of the State Duma Energy Committee, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that the curtailment of Russian shipments effectively removed roughly 10% of global supply from international markets.
Russia turns off the taps to shield its domestic market
The situation inside Russia presents a distinct picture. As noted, the country enacted a complete prohibition on diesel exports in early August, with the restriction currently scheduled to run through the end of September. The measure was introduced following emergency repairs at domestic refineries, which suffered damage from UAV attacks that led to immediate drops in production. Historically, Russia produced about 40% more diesel fuel than it consumed internally, meaning the export ban effectively secured ample supply for domestic markets while placing downward pressure on local prices. Indeed, according to Rossiyskaya Gazeta, domestic fuel prices eased slightly in September.
The price tag: Blows to refining and crude output
Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, told the publication that restricting diesel exports compresses refining margins while acting as an operational cap on crude oil production. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Russian oil production dropped to 8.36 million barrels per day in August 2026, down from 8.56 million barrels per day the previous month. The market expert considers that the core conditions required to lift the export ban have already been established.
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