Saudi Arabia is in a state of strategic shock, as Riyadh sees the worst-case scenario unfolding before it, while attacks from Iran escalate and US support is not reinforced to the extent it expected. According to an analysis by The New York Times, Saudi Arabia is facing an extremely difficult situation following the stance of Donald Trump, as the monarchy attempts to simultaneously manage growing military pressure and the reluctance of the US to offer additional military support. Analysts estimate that Riyadh is now in an environment of strategic shock, as it sees its security and economic interests threatened by the broader conflict.
Trapped between the US and Iran
Saudi Arabia increasingly sees itself trapped in the middle of the conflict between the United States and Iran. The leadership of the Kingdom is now examining the diminishing options available to respond to the situation, while trying to avoid further escalation that could have severe consequences for the country's economy and security. Riyadh faces a particularly difficult dilemma: on one hand, it needs to protect its energy infrastructure, and on the other, it does not wish to become directly involved in a wider war.
Houthi attacks threaten oil
In recent weeks, Houthi forces in Yemen, who are allied with Iran, have carried out repeated attacks against Saudi Arabia. These attacks threaten the country's oil exports and increase pressure on the global economy, as any major disruption to production or transport could trigger new turmoil in international energy markets. However, according to former diplomats and analysts cited by The New York Times, the Saudi leadership appears frustrated by the reluctance of Donald Trump to decisively confront Houthi forces. For Riyadh, the American stance creates an additional problem: the country relies heavily on US defense support, while simultaneously trying to maintain balances in its relations with regional powers.
Yahya Saree: "We shot it down with a domestically produced surface-to-air missile"
Meanwhile, the Houthis claim to have shot down a Saudi Arabian F-15 fighter jet, built in the US, which according to the group was conducting "hostile operations" over Yemen's Marib province. Houthi spokesman Brigadier General Yahya Saree stated that the aircraft was downed by a surface-to-air missile manufactured domestically in Yemen. In a post on Telegram, Saree claimed that the Houthis used this specific weapon system to intercept the F-15.
"Over 450 airstrikes"
The Houthi spokesman further claimed that Saudi Arabia has carried out more than 450 airstrikes on Yemeni territory, a fact that, according to him, justifies the group's response. At the same time, Saree reiterated the Houthis' denial that the organization has targeted the holy city of Mecca. These specific claims by the Houthis are not independently verified in the text.
"Yemen's airspace will not be violated"
Saree warned that Houthi forces will continue to defend Yemen's airspace and sovereignty against any attack or violation. "The Yemeni Armed Forces will continue to protect our country's airspace and sovereignty from any aggressive action or violation, using all available means," he stated. "By God's will, the skies of Yemen will not be violated," the Houthi spokesman added.
Bloomberg: Saudi Arabia requests military assistance from Britain
According to Bloomberg, British Prime Minister Andy Burnham is reviewing requests from Saudi Arabia for military support against the Houthis. Riyadh's requests include assistance to protect the country's oil infrastructure and prevent a further Houthi advance toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the most critical maritime gateways between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. According to the report, Andy Burnham has already agreed to send British military advisors to Saudi Arabia. However, it remains unknown whether he will approve Riyadh's remaining requests. This development demonstrates the growing pressure facing Saudi Arabia, as the military conflict in the region now directly threatens critical energy infrastructure and trade routes.
AP: Saudi Arabia pipeline to remain offline for weeks
According to the Associated Press, two officials with knowledge of the matter estimate that a major Saudi Arabian oil pipeline, which was attacked last week, will remain out of operation for several weeks due to extensive repair work. The two officials stated that restoring damage could take anywhere from three to five weeks. The operations will include, among other things, repairs to one of the main pumping facilities. One of the two officials mentioned that the pipeline might operate partially during the repair work. Both spoke on condition of anonymity, as they were not authorized to discuss the matter with the media.
The East-West pipeline bypasses Hormuz
The East-West pipeline crosses Saudi Arabia and is a key element of the country's strategy to transport oil to the Red Sea, allowing Riyadh to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait has been at the center of the crisis, as Iranian attacks have caused severe maritime disruptions. The pipeline is approximately 1,200 kilometers long and has a transfer capacity of up to 7 million barrels of oil per day. The attack, which Saudi Arabia attributed to drones from Iran-backed groups in Iraq, occurred on Thursday and led to the pipeline shutdown. This development forces Riyadh to seek alternative solutions to maintain its exports, while the Strait of Hormuz remains at the epicenter of the geopolitical and energy crisis.
Saudi Arabia has oil for only 5-7 days
At the center of the global energy crisis now sits Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. Sources speaking to Reuters warn that Saudi Arabia holds reserves for only 5 to 7 days at its export facilities, making the restart of the pipeline critical. If the pipeline is not brought back into operation within the coming days, the global market could lose up to 4% of the world's oil supply, according to buyers of Saudi crude and traders. This development threatens to deepen the global supply crisis, which has already pushed fuel prices to new highs, boosted inflation, and put pressure on bond yields.
The pipeline that "saved" Saudi Arabia from Hormuz
The East-West pipeline, which cuts through the desert regions of the Arabian Peninsula, served over the past six months as a critical alternative route for Saudi Arabia, protecting it from much of the impact of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The pipeline transports oil to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, allowing Saudi Arabia to bypass Hormuz. The country, which is the world's largest oil exporter, used the pipeline to transport around 4 million barrels of oil per day, an amount corresponding to roughly 4% of global supply. With the pipeline offline, reserves at Yanbu are now sufficient for only 5 to 7 days of exports, according to three oil industry sources familiar with Saudi exports.
IEA: Saudi Arabia's supply at lowest level in over 30 years
The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced last Friday that Saudi Arabia's oil supply in August fell to its lowest level in more than three decades. The drop is attributed to reduced oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. The IEA estimates that global oil supply will decrease this year by 5.7 million barrels per day, or about 6%. This development significantly increases the risk of prolonged pressure on energy prices and economies that depend on oil imports.
Houthis open a new front in the Red Sea
In addition to the attack on the pipeline, the Houthis have threatened Saudi Arabia and targeted the country's oil shipments. They have already seized an island at the entrance of the Red Sea. This development heightens fears that Saudi Arabia could simultaneously face disruptions on its two main alternative oil transit routes: the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
From 22 million barrels to just 6-9 million
Before the start of the war, the Middle East produced approximately 22 million barrels per day. Oil industry sources report that the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz has now fallen to just 6 to 9 million barrels daily. This contraction highlights the scale of the shock to the global market, as the Strait represents one of the world's most vital oil arteries.
Saudi Arabia cut production to 6.2 million barrels
Saudi Arabia informed OPEC last week that its oil production in August fell to just 6.2 million barrels per day. In February, before the start of the war, production stood at 10.9 million barrels daily. The difference illustrates the magnitude of the disruption that the crisis has caused to Middle Eastern energy flows. With the East-West pipeline out of service, shipping in Hormuz collapsed, and attacks in the region continuing, the oil market faces an explosive combination of restricted supply, heightened geopolitical risk, and renewed price pressures.
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