Direct threats of total devastation for Greece in the event of an extension of territorial waters to 12 nautical miles south of Crete are being unleashed by circles within the Turkish deep state.
Ankara makes it clear that no defense pact with France can serve as a shield of protection for Athens, signaling that any unilateral measure will be construed as a casus belli.
The climate is intensifying dangerously, as the Turkish side communicates across every channel that the «Blue Homeland» (Mavi Vatan) is non-negotiable.
A voice of the Turkish establishment, the director of «Milliyet» and informal spokesperson for the Turkish government, Uzay Sendir, writes:
With elections scheduled for October 2026 in Israel, May 2027 in Greece, and February 2028 in the Greek Cypriot sector of Cyprus, and with efforts to rally votes via Turkey underway across all three nations, the unpleasant word «war» is being invoked excessively often.
As he underscores, «We must be realistic and prepare accordingly.
For some time now, discussions have circulated regarding a scenario under which Greece extends its territorial waters to 12 nautical miles south and west of Crete, which do not face the Aegean Sea, in order to circumvent the Turkey-Libya memorandum.
Athens knows very well that Ankara will not accept such a step that would usurp Turkey's continental shelf and the rights of the “Blue Homeland” in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Greece cannot undertake such a step relying on its defense agreement with France.
You might ask “How do you know?”, so allow me to explain:
In the English Channel, very close to the French coastline but belonging to Great Britain, lie the Channel Islands of Jersey and Guernsey.
International arbitration delimited the territorial waters of these islands in favor of France.
Paris would never embroil itself in a dispute, let alone a war, that would establish a precedent against its own interests.
Regarding the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which Greece presents as international law: first, Turkey consistently objects to this convention, which accords Ankara distinct legal rights.
Second, international tribunals have adjudicated not strictly according to UNCLOS, but in accordance with the specific circumstances of states in cases such as the Snake Island dispute between Romania and Ukraine, the maritime boundary dispute between Qatar and Bahrain, and the continental shelf delimitation between Libya and Malta.
The situation will be identical for the Aegean. Athens knows this perfectly well.
A unilateral extension of Greece's territorial waters in the Aegean Sea to 12 nautical miles would reduce international waters in the basin from 49% to 19%, expanding Greek territorial waters to 71.5%.
This would not only confine the Turkish Navy to its own immediate coastline, but would also disrupt nations like Russia, Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgaria, which utilize the Aegean as a trade artery, impacting all global actors.
Statements such as “We will certainly exploit our air superiority” should not be taken overly seriously.
In Athens, there are minor far-right factions such as Greek Solution, NIKI, and Spartans that are open to military confrontation with Turkey, alongside prominent center-right figures like former Prime Minister Antonis Samaras or Kostas Karamanlis.
And in Turkey, there are those who, instead of protracted diplomatic rounds, would prefer a scenario under which these figures, rather than Kyriakos Mitsotakis, become prime minister or enter a far-right coalition, settling the issue once and for all.
Given that even if an altercation occurs, we will ultimately have to sit down and reach an accord, no one seems to recognize that the mindset in Athens incapable of accepting an agreement without a clash is dragging Greece, not Turkey, into catastrophe.
Regarding statements made concerning the trilateral partnership among Israel, Greece, and the Greek Cypriot administration:
The most common scenario I hear is that these three intend to gain the upper hand in a brief localized clash and subsequently sit at the negotiating table holding an advantage due to international pressure for a ceasefire.
I doubt whether there is even a single government official in those capitals who genuinely believes in this scenario.
It would be utter madness to assume that Turkey would remain idle following an encounter that ends with the other side potentially holding the upper hand.
Other capitals also realize that given Turkey's military weight, the alliances in which it participates, and the lessons drawn from its history, Ankara will not and cannot remain passive...»
Regarding Cyprus
Concerning the «fly» (as he labels it) of the Eastern Mediterranean, Sendir writes:
«Cypriot leader Nikos Christodoulides is a man of specific projects.
The son of a Greek Cypriot farmer, he studied in the US at the Center for Byzantine and Modern Greek Studies on a scholarship.
Founded in 1974, it serves as a breeding ground for partisans of the Greek Cypriot lobby.
Apparently, the training did not proceed as planned, as Christodoulides is a major supporter of the ELAM party, which Greek politicians refused to meet during visits to Cyprus.
He holds no real standing in Athens.
Following corruption allegations that emerged last January, his wife, Philippa Karsera, was forced to step down from her post heading the Independent Social Support Body, and his brother-in-law, Charalambos Charalambous, resigned as Director of the Presidential Office.
The legal case remains ongoing.
Christodoulides can neither start a war nor conclude peace on his own. Consequently, he is not someone to be seriously factored into Eastern Mediterranean scenarios.
It is not unusual for provocative messages to emanate from Athens during electoral seasons».
The problem here lies in the rhetoric of these provocative messages and the threshold to which they escalate.
Today, roughly two million people travel to Greece from Turkey, but on the streets, tens of millions more think: “If only someone bolder came to power instead of Mitsotakis, so that we could do what must be done”.
Let us not forget that elections will also take place in Turkey, and domestic public opinion exists in Turkey as well.
Therefore, we must stretch the rope only just enough so that it does not snap, Sendir concludes.
P.S. To every bitter observer: Banking News has proven its patriotic credentials repeatedly, delivering hard-hitting truths that some find difficult to swallow. To the hyper-patriots who will hide in the event of an incident, let us say: «keep your friends close, but your adversaries closer». Knowledge is... power.
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