A single phrase uttered from his ancestral home was enough to trigger... an earthquake in Turkey and bring back to the forefront scenarios for constitutional revision.
Specifically, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, addressing his supporters in Güneysu in the province of Rize, made an overt reference to «approaching elections», adding fuel to scenarios for an early trip to the ballot box. Despite the fact that regular presidential and parliamentary elections are scheduled for 2028, this verbal hint, coupled with pressures from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) for a renewed candidacy, reignites the broader debate over whether the Turkish president will ultimately succeed in bypassing the constitutional hurdle to seek a third term.
Erdogan's remark that set off... fires
«Within this climate of unity and solidarity, I reiterate my belief that, God willing, we will achieve success in the approaching elections, in the upcoming elections as well», Erdogan characteristically stated while addressing assembled citizens.
The constitutional... riddle
The Turkish president's remark neither specified a date nor clarified whether he was referring to the regularly scheduled elections of 2028 or a potential early trip to the polls. This is precisely what lends political interest to his statement.
The government and the AKP have already been speaking for months about the next elections, while top government officials do not hide their desire to see Erdogan run once again. In June, AKP spokesperson Ömer Çelik explicitly declared that the party's candidate in the upcoming presidential elections remains Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a stance mirrored by Minister of Transport Abdulkadir Uraloğlu, who stated that the governing alliance intends to re-elect him.
The political intention, therefore, has been voiced. The arduous component is the constitutional pathway. Specifically, Article 101 of the Turkish Constitution clearly stipulates that a person may be elected president at most twice. The critical exception, however, lies in Article 116: provided the president is serving their second term and the Grand National Assembly of Turkey resolves to renew elections, they may run as a candidate once more.
This detail holds tremendous significance, as holding elections earlier than the regular timetable is not sufficient on its own. The relevant constitutional exception is explicitly linked to a parliamentary decision, which requires a qualified supermajority of three-fifths of the total 600 lawmakers, meaning at least 360 votes. If this transpires while Erdogan is serving his second term, the constitutional path opens for yet another presidential run.
Here lies a crucial distinction frequently overlooked in public debate. Specifically, the Turkish Constitution permits both parliament and the president himself to lead the country toward a renewal of presidential and parliamentary elections. However, the provision for an additional presidential candidacy is explicitly codified only when that decision is adopted by the Grand National Assembly. Consequently, a scenario in which Erdogan single-handedly decides to expedite the vote does not automatically generate that same constitutional eligibility, rendering the parliamentary balance of power just as vital as the political intentions of the presidential palace.
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