The stakes go far beyond Yemen. If Hormuz remains under military pressure and simultaneously Bab al-Mandab transforms into a zone of relentless attacks, the world will face a nightmare scenario: two of the planet's most vital energy arteries being threatened at the same time. It will be the moment Iran gains a virtual "nuclear weapon." This is because the US–Iran conflict would no longer be just another Middle Eastern war, but would turn into a direct threat to the global economy, energy prices, navigation, and supply chains from Asia to Europe and the United States.
Already in the wake of these developments, the price of Brent crude has passed $108 per barrel, while a record price for diesel fuel is recorded in the US.
Saudi Arabia's most strategic oil pipeline in flames
Satellite imagery shows a massive fire along Saudi Arabia's most strategic oil pipeline. According to Iranian news agency Tasnim, unofficial sources report a potential missile attack or drone strike on one of Saudi Arabia's primary oil transit routes. Following the attack, a large fire broke out near the city of Medina, while thick smoke became visible in the region's skyline.
Satellite images and data show that a massive thermal hotspot remained active in the area for several hours. Its intensity exceeded 70 megawatts at certain points, while total recorded thermal energy was reported to have surpassed 60 megawatts.
Some analyses based on satellite data estimate that this situation may have been caused by damage to a high-pressure section of the transmission pipeline, resulting in a significant oil spill. Saudi Arabia's East–West Crude Oil Pipeline, also known as Petroline, stretches from Abqaiq in the east of the country to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast. The pipeline allows Saudi Arabia to transfer a portion of its crude destined for export without passing through the maritime routes of the Persian Gulf.
US military advisors
More than 100 American military advisors are on the ground in Saudi Arabia, providing intelligence and targeting support to the Kingdom as part of its military campaign against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, according to multiple sources familiar with the operation. The assistance is provided as fighting on the Arabian Peninsula intensifies, threatening to escalate into open war with the Houthis and imperiling a second major maritime trade corridor out of the Middle East.
Joint forces command
US military personnel are working within a newly established joint forces command created in recent weeks, amid indications that Iran was also stepping up its own efforts to support Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia, according to a US official. The same official estimated the total number of troops at approximately 200. The presence of US troops assisting Saudi Arabia was described to CNN by five sources familiar with the military operations.
Target identification
The US has helped Saudi Arabia utilize a targeting tool that allows military officers to view the battlefield in real time, a US official told CNN, comparing it to the Maven system used by the Pentagon. Another source familiar with ongoing cooperation between the two nations also mentioned that the US is providing Saudi Arabia with geospatial support to identify targets in strikes against the Houthis. However, according to sources, strict limitations currently exist on US support.
Not participating in strikes
The US is sharing intelligence with Saudi Arabia — as it already does on a regular basis — but is not directly participating in airstrikes. The US is also not assisting with aerial refueling of Saudi warplanes or providing other operational support, as it had during previous conflicts with the Houthis. Instead, the effort centers on ensuring that Saudi operations are conducted smoothly and professionally, one of the sources stated. All sources characterized the effort as an extension of existing military cooperation and training provided by the US to Saudi Arabia, a key regional ally. A US Department of Defense official told CNN that "as a matter of practice, we do not comment on intelligence matters."
Houthi advance
US support comes amid the Houthis' recent advance across the Arabian Peninsula, with fighting in recent days reaching perhaps its most intense point since 2022. A fragile truce between the Houthis and the Saudi-backed Yemeni governmenttook effect that year, but the country has remained effectively split in two ever since. The armed group seized a strategically vital Red Sea port on Thursday 9/10, which could allow it to threaten the Bab al-Mandab strait.
Bab al-Mandab Strait in their hands...
The Houthis achieved a striking victory against the forces of Yemen's internationally recognized government west of Taiz. As reported by Al Jazeera, the two sides have been fighting for the past ten days, with the Houthis attempting to push west of Taiz, as their main prize was capturing the city of al-Makha along with the Red Sea coastline. This development gives the Houthis a clear advantage in obstructing vessel transit through Bab al-Mandab and, even more importantly, allows them to cut off three primary government supply lines in the southern part of the country. These lines have now officially passed under Houthi control. It is merely a matter of time before the Houthis formally announce the complete capture of the city of al-Makha. According to Al Jazeera, the city has been taken, and government forces have fully withdrawn all their military units from al-Makha.
Development of immense significance
Defense analyst Wolfgang Pusztai stated that if Houthi fighters have indeed captured the coastal city of al-Makha (Mocha) on the Red Sea, it would represent a development of major significance. "They are advancing even further past government forces," he told Al Jazeera, adding that if Yemeni rebels manage to cut off the road between Taiz and al-Makha, it would be "a very significant blow to the government." "If they take Mocha, they will control almost the entire Yemeni coast on the Red Sea. This means it will be easier for them to control Bab al-Mandab." He noted that while the Strait of Hormuz is approximately 50 km (30 miles) wide, the Bab al-Mandab Strait is much narrower, with a width of around 20 km (12 miles). "This means they could control it with artillery alone; they wouldn't even need to use missiles or drones to attack ships. This would certainly deal a severe blow to Saudi shipping and international navigation," Wolfgang Pusztai stated.
Second front
Although Saudi Arabia was initially reluctant to get deeply involved in the US war with Iran — going so far as to refuse support for initial US efforts to escort commercial vessels affected by the war earlier this summer — increasingly aggressive Houthi attacks have heightened both US and Saudi concerns over the potential opening of a second front.
Role of the Revolutionary Guards
US officials estimate that hundreds of officers from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are currently in Yemen, working with the Houthis with the ultimate goal of closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, a US official told CNN. CNN had previously reported that Iran was planning an economic "nuclear option" if negotiations with the US collapsed: asking the Houthis to shut down this critical maritime choke point. Secretary of State Marco Rubio indirectly referenced intelligence regarding the IRGC presence in Yemen earlier this week when he told reporters that Iran was involved in recent Houthi strikes against Saudi energy infrastructure, according to a US official.
Americans under pressure
Nevertheless, American forces are already under heavy strain following more than six months of combat in Iran, during which US troops in the region have faced repeated missile and drone attacks, endured extended deployments, and face growing concerns regarding ammunition stockpiles. The US military is also concentrating most of its focus on operations around the Strait of Hormuz, carrying out strikes against Iranian targets, escorting commercial ships transiting the waterway, and maintaining a naval blockade of Iranian ports. At the same time, within the US military, there is strong hesitancy toward becoming too closely linked with a Saudi strike campaign against the Houthis — particularly if a strike fails and results in civilian casualties, as has occurred in the past, another US official noted. "It's not like before," another source stated.
Iran does not need a nuclear weapon
Yemen's ambassador to Qatar, Rajeh Badi, stated that Iran is behind the resurgence of fighting in Yemen and is using the Houthis to solidify its control over Red Sea shipping routes. As he noted, what is currently unfolding is "a surprise Houthi offensive to seize strategic territory along the Red Sea," aimed at helping Tehran control maritime waterways. Badi stated that the relationship between Iran and the Houthis "is no longer a secret," describing the group as one of Iran's core regional proxies, alongside Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq. As other Iranian allies face pressure, he noted, Tehran "is investing even more heavily in the Houthis as its remaining lever of influence" and contributed to reigniting the war after a period of relative calm lasting about five years. He recalled the words of the late former Yemeni leader, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who remarked that if Iran controls Bab al-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz, "it won't need a nuclear weapon." "Control over these two strategic passages would be stronger than any nuclear arsenal," Badi stated. "Events have proven he was right."
Perim: The tiny island that could become a global nightmare
At the heart of this new geopolitical game lies a seemingly insignificant island: Perim, also known as Mayyun. It sits at the narrowest point of Bab al-Mandab, where just a few miles of sea separate the Arabian Peninsula from the Horn of Africa. For centuries, it served as a strategic prize for empires. Now, it could turn into one of the most vital focal points of the US–Iran war. The Houthis captured Mocha, roughly 50 miles north of Perim. If they manage to control the area and subsequently gain access to the island, they will be able to threaten maritime navigation through Bab al-Mandab much more directly. "We had told the world that this was an Iranian plan, but back then nobody listened to the Yemenis… Now it has become a geopolitical crisis," Tarik Saleh, vice president of Yemen's internationally recognized government, told CNN. According to Saleh, if the Houthis capture Perim Island and secure control of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, "then a massive international task force and fleets will be required" to oust them.
The nightmare scenario: Mines in Bab al-Mandab
Warnings from Yemen's internationally recognized government are dramatic. Officials estimate that if the Houthis gain a real foothold at Bab al-Mandab, they will no longer require long-range missiles to threaten commercial shipping. They will be right alongside them. And that is when the worst-case scenario emerges: the naval mining of the strait. As Abdel Nasser El Mamlouh, a Yemeni military official, warned, the Houthis could attempt in Bab al-Mandab what the Yemeni government claims has already occurred in Hormuz. "They will mine the strait, just as Iran did in Hormuz," Mamlouh said. If such a scenario occurs, the world will face not one, but two critical energy choke points in a state of active warfare.
The second noose around the global economy
Here lies the true strategic dimension. If Hormuz is severely restricted and Bab al-Mandab simultaneously becomes a zone of continuous attacks, markets will lose two of the Middle East's most vital maritime corridors at once. A complete closure isn't even necessary. Fear alone is enough. A few damaged tankers, soaring insurance premiums, shipping lines altering routes, and crews refusing to sail through war zones are all it takes. Already, the volume of oil passing through Bab al-Mandab has dropped dramatically compared to three years ago. A prolonged Houthi campaign could compress crude oil flows even further.
The fire spreads
This is precisely where the new phase begins. The war ceases to have a single, clear geographical center. The Persian Gulf connects to the Gulf of Oman, the Gulf of Oman to the Arabian Sea, and the Arabian Sea to Bab al-Mandab. Yemen connects with Saudi Arabia, and the missile conflict reaches all the way to Jordan. This is not merely escalation. It is the geographical spillover of the war.
Tehran's gamble
For Iran, time and the economy serve as weapons. As long as oil prices remain elevated, as gasoline becomes more expensive in the US, and as the cost of military deployment mounts, political pressure on Washington grows. And the calendar holds particular significance: the US midterm elections on November 3 are approaching. Geography itself grants Tehran a capability few states possess: to directly or indirectly threaten points through which a massive portion of global energy flows. At Hormuz, it can exert pressure directly; at Bab al-Mandab, the Houthis can exert it on its behalf.
The grand trap
The scenario now terrifying markets and Western governments is straightforward. Hormuz is under military pressure, and Bab al-Mandab is under Houthi pressure. This means tankers are in danger, insurance rates are skyrocketing, oil is significantly more expensive, and supply chains face suffocation. At that point, we are no longer discussing a regional war, but a global economic crisis.
At $108 per barrel – Historic records in the US
Oil prices continue their upward trajectory, with Brent crude futures gaining $1.05 by 00:45 GMT on Friday 9/11, or 1%, reaching $108.68 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 95 cents, also rising 1%, to $103.45. The rally comes as both benchmark indices head toward closing the week above $100 per barrel for the first time since mid-May, according to Reuters, following increased attacks along critical maritime trade routes in the Middle East and fears of prolonged supply disruptions. Both benchmarks surged by more than 6% on Thursday. At the same time, the average price of diesel fuel in the US crossed $6 per gallon for the first time in history, according to data published Thursday by fuel tracking service GasBuddy, cited by Reuters.
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