The war with Iran has already burdened American consumers with 100 billion dollars in additional energy costs, while the bill continues to grow at a rapid pace. According to Axios, this cost stems from the rise in energy prices since the outbreak of war. In fact, based on real-time calculations by Brown University's Watson Institute, the cost increases by approximately 1 million dollars every two minutes. And the problem for Donald Trump's administration is not merely financial. It has now become deeply political.
More than 760 dollars extra for every household
The Watson Institute's "Iran War Energy Cost Tracker" shows that the increase in gasoline and diesel prices since the start of the war on February 28 translates to more than 760 dollars in added costs on average for every American household. The largest portion of this burden comes from gasoline prices. However, diesel is now evolving into an even greater source of concern, as its prices are rising at a much faster rate. This surge does not affect drivers alone. Diesel represents a foundational cost for freight transportation, logistics operations, and a major portion of the American supply chain. Thus, energy inflation risks turning into a fresh wave of broader economic inflation.
Record high in diesel – Reaching 5.90 dollars per gallon
The price of diesel hit an all-time record high on Friday and continued its upward trajectory over subsequent days. According to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), Monday morning's average price reached 5.90 dollars per gallon. This represents a level roughly 60% higher than one year ago. This development creates a severe headache for US transport and travel over the coming weeks and months. Crucially, the energy burden does not stop at the fuel pump. The surge in diesel gradually passes through to product shipping costs and, ultimately, to the prices consumers pay.
Texas, California, and Florida footing the largest bill
Texas is the state that has absorbed the largest share of this extra burden. According to the Brown University index, Texas consumers have paid roughly 11 billion dollars extra for gasoline and diesel since the war began in late February. California and Florida follow, with additional costs of approximately 8 billion and 5 billion dollars, respectively. These figures demonstrate the sheer magnitude of the shock that this geopolitical crisis is inflicting on the daily lives of Americans.
Donald Trump: "Americans are willing to pay"
Donald Trump continues to maintain that Americans are willing to pay higher prices to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. However, a major contradiction remains. American voters consistently rank inflation as the single most critical issue facing the nation. In this arena, public assessment of Trump remains decidedly negative. With fuel prices rising again and transportation costs ballooning, the energy crisis threatens to transform into one of the administration's most formidable political headaches.
Middle East oil remains the big question mark
The pivotal question for the coming weeks and months is how much oil will continue flowing from the Middle East. Uncertainty remains exceptionally high, and the trajectory of regional exports will largely determine the future of fuel prices. If oil flows are restricted further, price pressures could intensify significantly. Conversely, a stabilization of exports could cap the upward pressure. The core issue is that, for now, the market operates within an extraordinarily volatile geopolitical landscape.
War in Ukraine added to the same tab
The ongoing war in Ukraine also enters the equation. Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have impacted global energy markets, particularly targeting the diesel market. As a result, American consumers face a dual geopolitical shock: conflict in the Middle East alongside disruptions to Russian infrastructure. Pressure on fuel markets is therefore by no means an isolated phenomenon.
The energy bill becomes a political bill
Most troubling for Donald Trump is that American consumers appear to be entering a prolonged period of high fuel prices that few anticipated at the start of war. The timing is politically precarious. With less than two months remaining until the US midterm elections, the Trump administration must manage a situation where geopolitical turmoil translates directly into higher costs for everyday households. The 100 billion dollar price tag is no longer just a raw statistic. It represents a tangible cost extracted from the pockets of American consumers. As long as gasoline and diesel continue to climb, it becomes increasingly difficult for the administration to argue that war costs are a price Americans are willing to pay. The major battle is no longer being waged exclusively in the Middle East; it is being fought directly at the American gas pump.
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