Uranium has emerged as the latest battleground of geopolitical rivalry, with Russia quietly consolidating its control over one of the most critical strategic raw materials for the global energy market. As the US and Europe pivot back to nuclear power and demand for reactor fuel is projected to surge, Moscow is expanding its reach not only domestically but also through major deposits in Kazakhstan, Tanzania, and Namibia. Research warns that if current and planned projects materialize, Russia under Vladimir Putin could control up to 36% of global uranium production capacity by 2040, creating a formidable new energy dependence for Western nations.
Supply concerns are further exacerbated by an existing deficit caused by years of underinvestment and delays in obtaining permits for new mining operations. At the same time, uranium extraction capacity within Russia, as well as in overseas mines owned by Russian entities, is projected to grow steadily, according to the first report by the non-profit Centre for Strategic Advantage (CSA). This trend deepens reliance on a nation that has demonstrated a willingness to weaponize energy supplies, raising the risk that Europe and other regions may face severe supply shortages of essential nuclear material, the center cautioned.
"By 2040, we could be facing a level of dependence on Russian-mined uranium comparable to our dependence on Russian oil and gas in 2022," stated Gareth Heywood, head of special projects at the center, ahead of the annual World Nuclear Symposium held in London.
Uranium supply deficit
Uranium, a silvery-grey radioactive metal, is primarily mined in Kazakhstan, Australia, Namibia, and Canada. However, mining market analysts foresee a growing supply deficit over the coming decade, following years of depressed uranium prices that forced mine closures and slashed exploration spending to a fraction of pre-Fukushima levels.
By the middle of the next decade, "there is no doubt that the industry will require new supply," noted Alex Bedwany, an analyst at Stifel. While countries like Canada possess the capability to bring new mines online, "these projects carry significant development risks, and it appears the market is heavily reliant on them," he added. Canadian firm NexGen Energy is currently developing a massive project in Saskatchewan, while mining giant Cameco has secured approval to expand its McArthur River mine by more than a third, raising output to 25 million pounds annually, or 11,340 metric tons.
The primary question facing the sector is whether there is "sufficient resilience and flexibility within the system," remarked Sarah Forman, head of strategy at Urenco, a company specializing in uranium enrichment. "It takes a long time to construct new mines," she emphasized. "What is needed is a clear signal from governments that nuclear power will remain a cornerstone of our energy mix for the long haul, effectively reassuring industry: 'you can safely commit capital to this.'"
Moscow spreads its net
Russia accounted for approximately 5% of global mined uranium output in 2024. However, its domestic output masks a far greater international footprint: when including foreign mines controlled by Russian entities, Moscow's share of global production capacity among top sources approached nearly a quarter in 2024, according to the center. Uranium One, a subsidiary of the state nuclear corporation Rosatom, controls roughly 10,000 metric tons of annual uranium extraction capacity outside Russian borders, located in Kazakhstan.
The CSA reports that if all countries proceed with existing, committed, planned, and potential projects, and every asset operates at peak capacity, Moscow's share could rise from nearly a quarter to 36% by 2040. Russia is actively advancing mine development in Tanzania and Namibia through Uranium One. Furthermore, Moscow signed an agreement with Niger last year to strengthen cooperation in the uranium sector, following the practical expulsion of French nuclear group Orano from Niger and subsequent legal proceedings over asset expropriation.
Western sanctions
Western nations have imposed sanctions on a broad array of Russian enterprises since the launch of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The UK, US, Canada, Japan, and France have declared their intention to challenge Russia's dominance across the nuclear supply chain and have invested heavily in critical uranium processing infrastructure. Nevertheless, Russia remains a major supplier of enriched uranium to Europe, necessary for fueling power reactors. Although the US has enacted a ban on Russian uranium imports, granted waivers permit shipments to continue through 2028.
Higher uranium prices, recent legal shifts in Kazakhstan, and international efforts aimed at preventing Russia from exploiting African assets could cap its share of global production at around 14%, according to the CSA. This scenario could result in bans targeting Russian-controlled uranium originating from Niger, Namibia, and Tanzania. Meanwhile, pending legislative changes in Kazakhstan are expected to increase the host country's direct stake in domestic production. UxC's long-term price forecast for uranium has risen from $80 per pound a year ago to $94 per pound in its latest assessment. "Whether we have reached a true long-term price that will act as an incentive for new mines remains unclear," stated Jonathan Hinze, president of UxC, adding that he expects prices to maintain an upward trajectory.
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