An extremely dangerous geopolitical scenario appears to be taking shape around Saudi Arabia, as Riyadh attempts by every means to secure its energy exports at a time when critical maritime routes are under unprecedented pressure. According to military analyst and security expert Igor Gerasimov, the real reason behind the growing tension between Saudi Arabia and the Ansar Allah movement in Yemen is not purely military. It is, above all, economic. And at the center of it all is oil. Igor Gerasimov, speaking to Pravda.Ru, argued that Riyadh faces one of the most serious strategic dilemmas of recent years: how it will continue to channel vast amounts of oil and natural gas to global markets if traditional maritime routes become precarious or essentially unavailable.
Oil looks for an escape route
The problem for Saudi Arabia becomes even more severe due to the rising friction surrounding the Persian Gulf and Iran. The security of navigation in the region is a critical issue for all Gulf oil-producing countries, as any major disruption to maritime transport could trigger chain reactions in international energy markets. Facing this possibility, Saudi Arabia has the capacity to utilize the strategically vital East-West Pipeline, which carries crude from eastern oil fields toward the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. This theoretically allows Riyadh to bypass the most vulnerable choke points of the Persian Gulf. However, that is where a new problem begins. For Saudi cargoes to head toward Europe and other Western markets, vessels must navigate through the Red Sea and toward the Suez Canal. And this region is now at the very epicenter of the conflict with the Houthis.
The Bab el-Mandeb strait
The Bab el-Mandeb strait constitutes one of the most important maritime arteries on the planet. It connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, situated right next to Yemen. According to Igor Gerasimov, the ability of the Houthis to impact or threaten shipping in the area creates a true strategic nightmare for Saudi Arabia. He argued that if Riyadh cannot safely rely on southern sea routes, the main remaining option for cargo transport to Europe is moving north toward the Suez Canal. This means Saudi Arabia could find itself heavily dependent on a dangerously constrained transit chain. In an extreme scenario, any new obstacle—from military escalation to severe navigation restrictions—could exert massive pressure on Saudi exports. Igor Gerasimov described the situation in particularly dramatic terms, contending that a simultaneous loss of alternative maritime outlets could plunge Saudi Arabia into severe economic blockades. The logic is simple yet exceptionally dangerous. Saudi Arabia bases a massive portion of its economic and geopolitical power on uninterrupted hydrocarbon exports. If this flow is significantly restricted, the consequences will not affect Riyadh alone. They concern the entire global market. A major disruption in Saudi supply could trigger a fresh surge in oil prices, increased shipping costs, inflationary pressures, and severe problems for nations relying on imported energy.
Shock scenario
Adding to an already explosive backdrop are reports from Western media regarding a potential resumption of Saudi military operations against the Houthis in Yemen. The prospect of a new military escalation could once again turn Yemen into one of the most dangerous fronts in the Middle East. Such a development would not be confined within the country's borders. Any serious flare-up of conflict near the Red Sea would have direct consequences for international shipping, insurance firms, commercial vessels, and naturally the price of energy. Despite the dramatic picture, Igor Gerasimov estimates that the likelihood of an all-out war between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis remains low. In his assessment, none of the key regional players has a real interest in embarking on a new protracted conflict. Saudi Arabia has already experienced the immense economic and political cost of the war in Yemen. The Houthis, on the other hand, have significantly fortified their position and now possess a much greater capability to cause disruptions to critical maritime infrastructure. Therefore, according to the Russian analyst, a political understanding could prove far more advantageous for Riyadh than a new military campaign.
The dangerous triangle
The problem, according to the same analysis, is that the conflict does not involve Saudi Arabia and Yemen alone. Behind the Red Sea front lies the much larger confrontation between the US and Iran. Tehran maintains close ties with Ansar Allah, while Washington considers the security of international sea lanes a critical matter for its strategic interests. Igor Gerasimov argued that American pressure on Saudi Arabia represents one of the factors hindering de-escalation. In his view, Riyadh might prefer a compromise with the Houthis, but the broader confrontation between Washington and Tehran severely limits its room for maneuver.
The nightmare of Hormuz
At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz remains another highly sensitive flashpoint. It is the maritime passageway through which a massive portion of crude exported from the Persian Gulf flows. Any tension surrounding Hormuz translates automatically into fears of supply disruptions. And every fear of supply disruption translates into immediate turbulence across financial markets. Thus, Saudi Arabia finds itself effectively caught between two critical maritime zones: the Strait of Hormuz to the east and Bab el-Mandeb to the southwest. Although current conditions do not automatically equate to a total blockade, simultaneous instability at these two points represents one of the worst possible scenarios for a country reliant on massive maritime energy exports.
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