In 2026, global fertility may have fallen, for the first time in history, below the level required for the natural replacement of the population. This is argued by economists Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, professor at the University of Pennsylvania, and Patrick Norrick of Northwestern University, in their study «Terra Incognita: The Economics of a Shrinking World».
Demographers use the so-called total fertility rate, namely the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her lifetime, provided current birth levels are maintained. In developed countries, the replacement level is usually placed near 2.1 children per woman. At the global level, however, the two researchers estimate that the corresponding threshold lies closer to 2.2 children, due to differences in infant mortality and the sex ratio at birth.
According to the baseline scenario of the UN, the global fertility rate in 2026 stands at approximately 2.23 children per woman, which is slightly above the replacement level. Fernández-Villaverde and Norrick, however, consider that international projections have not fully captured the speed at which births have been declining in recent years. Based on more recent data, they estimate that the actual rate may already be near 2.19 children per woman.
The researchers point out that the decline is particularly pronounced in countries across Asia and Latin America, while fertility is gradually decreasing in several regions of Africa as well. In countries such as Egypt, Mexico, and the Philippines, recent figures appear lower than earlier projections, reinforcing the assessment that the global demographic transition is unfolding faster than anticipated.
If this trend continues, the study estimates that the global population could reach its peak, approximately 9 billion people, around 2056, and subsequently begin to decline. This estimate differs significantly from the baseline scenario of the UN, which projects a peak of approximately 10.3 billion people in the mid-2080s.
This development holds special significance for the global economy, as a prolonged period of low fertility can lead to population aging, a smaller labor force, and greater pressure on social security and pension systems. For this reason, demographic contraction is expected to constitute one of the most important economic and social issues of the coming decades.
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