China, as the leading oil importer, will not support Donald Trump’s economic war against Iran, as it has officially stated.
At the same time, the factor of the American midterm elections makes it even harder for the US President to escalate the confrontation with the third-largest trading partner of the US.
The Trump administration is threatening once again with «regime change» in Iran, while the occupant of the White House continues the absurdity of characterizing Hormuz as «American territory».
This time, however, it attempts to achieve its goal not through military force, but through what Donald Trump himself calls «economic warfare».
The problem for Washington is that China this time shows no willingness, even tacitly, to accept the economic strangulation of the Islamic Republic.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is asking the entire world to participate in the effort to economically isolate Iran.
Beijing, however, as the second-largest economy on the planet and one of the most important buyers of Iranian oil, refuses to become part of the American sanctions campaign.
And precisely here lies Donald Trump’s major strategic contradiction.
The American military campaign failed to force Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran began restricting in response to American and Israeli attacks in late February.
Now Washington is changing tactics.
Scott Bessent announced that the US will impose the «toughest sanctions in history» against Iran, attempting to intensify a strategy of economic pressure that for nearly five decades has caused immense economic and social consequences in Iran, without however managing to remove the country’s leadership from power.
The US Treasury Secretary was clear: this strategy, he argued, can only succeed if «all our allies» participate, creating the largest coordinated effort of economic isolation in history.
The goal is not hidden.
Washington wants to inflict severe economic pain on Iran, impacting its 90 million inhabitants through higher inflation, food price surges, and general economic suffocation.
Scott Bessent compared the effort to sanctions imposed on Venezuela and Cuba, countries where prolonged economic pressure has been linked to major humanitarian crises.
«Either with us or against us»
Washington did not limit itself to appeals.
Scott Bessent effectively delivered an ultimatum to countries that do not participate in the American campaign.
«You are either with us or against us», he warned, signaling that the US will use «all its might and force» against those refusing to contribute to the economic isolation of Iran.
And he was even more explicit: any country offering an economic «lifeline» to Tehran could, according to him, face «economic annihilation».
Iran responded by threatening harsh retaliation.
The Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Major General Ali Abdollahi, warned that the country is prepared on land, sea, air, air defense, and cyberspace, and that it will respond to new threats with «crushing and destructive» strikes.
Even the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, acknowledged that the new sanctions could have destructive consequences.
Tehran accepts that at this critical juncture, military power alone is insufficient.
Without economic activity, production, financial flows, and food adequacy, no country can hold out indefinitely.
China is the crucial link, and will overturn US plans
Here lies the major problem for Washington.
The US is attempting to curb Iranian oil exports, while Scott Bessent openly calls on China to «get with the program» of sanctions.
Except that China purchases approximately 80% of the oil exported by Iran.
And nearly half of Chinese energy consumption is linked to the Persian Gulf.
In other words, Beijing does not view the issue as a distant geopolitical clash.
Hormuz directly concerns the energy security of China itself.
Beijing’s response was unequivocal.
The spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Lin Jian, stated that China will not cooperate with efforts to isolate Iran.
«China believes that military means, sanctions, and pressure tactics are not a solution», he emphasized, warning that instead of resolving the crisis, they could lead to further escalation.
Beijing, he added, supports dialogue and negotiation.
When asked about the impact that American sanctions could have on Chinese energy imports from Iran, the answer was equally clear: China opposes unilateral sanctions that it considers unlawful and lacking a basis in international law or a mandate from the UN Security Council, while at the same time Tehran has proclaimed that they run contrary to international law as they violate the rights of sovereign states (in this case, to choose their supplier of energy goods).
Trump’s dilemma and the Achilles’ heel
The real question now is whether Donald Trump will attempt to act on his threats and impose economic retaliation on China.
Theoretically, Washington possesses the capability to escalate.
Practically, however, an economic war with China could prove exceptionally dangerous for Donald Trump himself.
China is the third-largest trading partner of the United States.
A major new clash with Beijing could cause further market turbulence, increase the cost of energy and goods, and fuel inflation in the US.
And there is a factor that Donald Trump can hardly ignore: the midterm elections of November.
The US President is already facing the economic fallout of the war.
Crude oil prices remain approximately 30% higher than pre-conflict levels, while gasoline prices in the US continue to be elevated by more than one dollar per gallon.
At the same time, vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains far below pre-war levels, with daily transit numbers lingering in the single digits.
This creates an exceptionally awkward reality for the Trump administration.
If Washington chooses to strike China economically to strangle Iran, it risks triggering a new wave of economic pressures inside the US, exactly when the President needs to demonstrate to Americans that he can lower the cost of living.
China will not «fall into line»
Danny Citrinowicz, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel, assesses that China will hardly back down.
Beijing has a strong strategic interest in preserving Iran under its current governance and strengthening its relationship with Tehran, as well as Iran’s dependence on China.
This means that any American strategy based on the premise that, sooner or later, Beijing will «fall into line» with Washington may rest on a fundamentally flawed assumption.
And here lies perhaps the greatest geopolitical dimension of the Hormuz crisis.
China does not need to dispatch warships to enter the fray.
It is enough for it to refuse to enforce the American economic blockade.
If it continues to buy Iranian oil, offering Tehran its primary economic «lifeline», then the American strategy of economic suffocation acquires an enormous void.
And if Donald Trump decides to close that void by imposing harsh sanctions on China, he may open an even wider front: a new economic war with Beijing.
The paradox is that Donald Trump may find himself facing a choice where neither option is painless.
He must either tolerate Chinese circumvention of American pressure on Iran or risk a new economic clash with China, with the cost of the latter ultimately shifting onto the American economy, just a few months ahead of the midterm elections.
This is the real «shock» of Hormuz for Donald Trump: the effort to bring Iran to its knees economically could pit him not only against Tehran, but against Beijing as well, while watching the US economy sustain a significant blow.
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