By late autumn, the stockpiles required for the operation of Ukraine's air defense systems may be depleted, according to an assessment by Russian military analyst and retired colonel Anatoly Matviychuk.
Speaking to NEWS.ru, Matviychuk argued that Kyiv faces a severe inventory replenishment problem, as it cannot secure the required quantities of weapon systems and missiles from either the USA or European countries.
At the same time, behind-the-scenes contacts involving US Vice President JD Vance stand at the center, who reportedly asked the Ukrainian president to halt attacks on infrastructure of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), linking the issue to approval procedures for Patriot missiles.
This development highlights how complex the background surrounding the supply of critical weapon systems has become, as military needs, diplomatic pressure, and energy interests intersect.
«Ukraine will exhaust its capabilities»
Matviychuk estimates that Ukraine faces constraints that involve not only the air defense systems themselves, but primarily the available interceptor missiles.
«Ukraine is not a self-sufficient country, as the weapons currently running out originate from Western countries», he characteristically stated.
As he argued, even Western countries do not know when they will be able to replenish their stockpiles, particularly in missiles for American Patriot systems.
Europe's stockpiles under pressure
According to the Russian analyst, the USA has restricted the provision of specific systems to third countries, while at the same time Europe has already begun to face its own stockpile problems.
«The USA supplies them to the EU, but Europe has exhausted its arsenals and must also replenish its military capabilities», he declared.
Based on this picture, Matviychuk estimates that by mid to late autumn the Ukrainian armed forces will have exhausted a significant portion of their air defense capabilities.
The «battle» for Patriots
The issue of missiles for Patriot systems is considered critical, as it constitutes one of the primary Western means utilized by Ukraine to counter Russian missile and air strikes.
Military analyst Yuri Knutov had previously estimated that the USA is not going to supply Ukraine with missiles for Patriots during the winter period.
However, according to the same assessment, Washington may offer Kyiv other weapon systems in order to limit reactions from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The critical autumn front
If Matviychuk's assessment is confirmed, the coming period acquires particular significance for Ukraine, as air defense effectiveness depends not only on the number of available systems but also on the capability for continuous missile replenishment.
The core question now is whether the USA and Ukraine's European allies can bridge the gap in time or whether Kyiv will face a severe shortage of air defense missiles before winter.
Kyiv wants a ceasefire to regroup
A hard line from Moscow regarding the possibility of a ceasefire in Ukraine, with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko arguing that Kyiv will attempt to exploit any temporary cessation of fire to regroup its forces and strengthen its military capabilities.
As Grushko stated to journalists, the Russian side estimates that a ceasefire would not be used by Ukraine as an opportunity to achieve a viable peace agreement, but as a tool for military regrouping.
Grushko: A ceasefire will become a «breather» for the Ukrainian army
«Any kind of ceasefire will be used by the Ukrainian side to regroup and accumulate forces», the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister characteristically declared.
According to him, these moves are not linked to an effort to achieve a stable and long-term peace settlement.
Moscow's position essentially reflects its deep skepticism toward a temporary ceasefire, as it considers that Kyiv could exploit this interval to replenish losses, relocate troops, and accumulate new military materiel.
«No official proposal for a Black Sea ceasefire»
At the same time, Grushko stated that Russia has not received an official and specific proposal for a moratorium on military operations in the Black Sea.
As he clarified, discussions exist among various sides regarding the possibility of a ceasefire in the maritime area, however so far no specific initiative has been officially submitted to Moscow.
This development acquires special significance, as the Black Sea constitutes a critical operational and strategic front of the war.
Ryabkov: We have no information on Zelensky proposals
Concurrently, Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia Sergey Ryabkov stated that Moscow does not possess information regarding proposals by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to end the military conflict.
Ryabkov also argued that Washington has not conveyed to Russia, through diplomatic channels, any relevant initiative from Kyiv.
«Millions of phone calls» for Patriots
A stir is caused by statements from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who revealed that he finds himself in a daily and extremely pressing struggle to secure missiles for Patriot air defense systems.
In an interview with CNN, Zelensky described a behind-the-scenes «marathon» of communications, making mention even of «millions of phone calls» over a span of months as he attempts to find available ammunition for Ukrainian air defense.
«There are months with millions of phone calls. I try to exchange something for missiles. I do things I cannot even share. This does not mean it is illegal. But I cannot talk about it», he characteristically stated.
Patriot hunt every single day
The Ukrainian president argued that searching for missiles for air defense systems constitutes now a daily affair, as Kyiv attempts to maintain adequate stockpiles for the protection of strategic facilities and cities.
The reference to moves he «cannot reveal» sparked particular interest. However, he rushed to clarify that he did not mean illegal actions, but negotiations and agreements that, as he said, cannot be publicized.
New backstory
At the same time, Zelensky's contacts with the American side stand at the center. According to the report, US Vice President JD Vance reportedly asked the Ukrainian president to stop attacks on infrastructure of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, linking the issue to procedures regarding permits for Patriot missiles.
This development highlights how complex the background surrounding the supply of critical weapon systems has become, as military needs, diplomatic pressure, and energy interests intersect.
Battle behind closed doors
The statements by Volodymyr Zelensky offer a picture of the intense diplomatic activity taking place behind every new shipment of military equipment to Ukraine. Behind public announcements, a continuous cycle of phone contacts, trade-offs, and negotiations appears to unfold.
And the Ukrainian president's phrase that there are things he «cannot share» is the one that leaves the greatest room for questions surrounding what exactly is discussed in the background of the battle for Patriots.
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