Significant discounts are maintained in the EV/EBITDA ratio
Valuations of Greek listed companies remain attractive on measurement metrics such as enterprise value to operating earnings (EV/EBITDA index), as a significant discount relative to European peers persists across almost most FTSE25 companies. Despite the rally in stocks since the beginning of the year, as well as the upgrades of the Greek market and equities, a discount is maintained that varies across different sectors of activity. In banking stocks, for example, there was a period when the discount compared to European banks narrowed, but subsequently the discount returned to between 10-15%. As Greek market managers estimated, the discount on Greek stocks is expected to close following the upgrade of the Greek market to developed status (September 2026).
However, as demonstrated, the process is taking place gradually and does not mean it will solely depend on upgrade inflows. On the other hand, it should not be overlooked that the Greek stock market remains in a transition phase, attracting investors from both emerging markets and developed markets. Cenergy stock is trading at the midpoint of the market capitalization of its European peers, such as Prysmian and Nexans, which represent the two leading global companies. Specifically, according to Piraeus Securities, Cenergy's EV/EBITDA ratio for 2027 stands at 10.5x, representing a discount compared to 12.5x for Prysmian and Nexans. Despite the stock's rise since the start of the year, Cenergy retains upside potential, especially when factoring in the new facility in the US market, as well as the recent acquisition of the pipeline plant in the United Kingdom. Ambrosia Capital, in its analysis of PPC, highlights that the stock trades at an EV/EBITDA valuation of 8.5x for 2026 and 8.9x for 2027, calculating the stock's discount at 17-18% compared to equivalent European utilities. Based on expected 2027 operating profits (2.7 billion euros), the discount has narrowed.
Large discount on Metlen
Metlen trades at a ratio of 6.8x for 2027 compared to 9.2x for its peers, representing the largest stock discount among Greek equities, according to data. OTE trades at a ratio of 5.5x for 2027 and, despite its recent rally, remains at a discount compared to its European competitors. Helleniq Energy features a ratio below 5.5x for 2027 against 6.8x in Europe, although the recent rise in the share price narrowed the valuation discount. According to data from NBG Securities, the other refiner, Motor Oil, was trading at 3.6x the ratio for 2027, well below its ten-year historical average of 4.8x. The stock's rise to 53 euros reduced Motor Oil's discount, but a gap remains relative to European refiners — which are not directly comparable as complex refineries no longer exist in Europe, providing a current competitive edge. Both companies, however, benefit not only from high refining margins but also from expanded operations in renewable energy sources, upstream, and the circular economy.
Dimitris Pafilas
www.bankingnews.gr
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