The midterm election battle is turning into an existential showdown for Trump, with as few as 10-15 toss-up districts potentially deciding who will control the US House and, by extension, how freely the president will be able to govern. Trump himself is dramatically escalating tensions, warning that a Democratic victory will lead the US into "hell", while his opponents see a unique opportunity to block his agenda, upend the balance of power in Congress, and lead him into political asphyxiation. At the same time, the strengthening of the left wing of the Democrats and trouble in the Republican camp indicate that the upcoming electoral battle could turn into a genuine political earthquake nationwide. American voters now appear to be expressing serious doubt about his ability to govern the country effectively overall.
What exactly is happening in Washington?
According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, for the first time in nearly a decade, Democrats are viewed by Americans as more capable of managing the economy than Republicans. A total of 37% of respondents consider Democrats more effective economic managers, compared to 36% who hold the opposite view. The picture has reversed dramatically in just a year and a half: in January 2025, only 25% considered Democrats better at economic management, while the corresponding figure for Republicans reached 45%. Pollsters attribute the shift, among other factors, to a 25% increase in gas prices, which they link directly to the war with Iran.
Trump's popularity at 35% – Down from 47% at the start of his second term
Donald Trump's popularity rating has dropped to 35%, down from the 47% he enjoyed when starting his second term. If Congressional elections were held today, 42% of Americans would prefer a Democratic candidate, compared to 37% who would choose a Republican. It should be recalled that the elections are scheduled for November 3 upcoming. At the same time, according to a joint survey by CNN and polling firm SSRS, 73% of Americans believe the Trump administration is not paying sufficient attention to the country's most serious and urgent national problems. Only 27% of respondents believe the current sitting president is doing things correctly.
Particularly low approval for Trump even among Republicans
Trump's popularity among Republicans stands at 78%, which represents his lowest recorded level. Only 19% of respondents believe the situation in the US will not deteriorate further before the end of his presidential term expires. In the spring, the corresponding figure stood at 38%. Trump's policies receiving the lowest approval ratings primarily concern Iran, inflation, and rising gas prices. Only 28% approve of his policy regarding Iran, 25% endorse his methods for tackling inflation, and a mere 21% approve of his efforts to curb rising fuel costs. Concurrently, roughly 75% of Americans estimate that the president's actions have led to a noticeable deterioration of the country's overall economy.
Trump's reaction: "My popularity is at the highest level"
Donald Trump himself, however, holds a completely different view of the current national situation. In his estimation, his popularity stands at an exceptionally high level. "How could it be otherwise, given the largest tax cut in history and employment performance, the greatest foreign investments in America in world history, fully protected borders, the huge victory in Venezuela, the denuclearization of Iran, unprecedented respect and success worldwide and many others?" he asserted to supporters.
"Only radical leftists fail to understand it"
Trump further argued that only radical leftists fail to recognize his administration's effectiveness due to what he characteristically termed their "unimaginable utter stupidity". At the same time, he called on all other Americans to vote for the Republican Party so that, as he claimed, "America becomes great" once again. The picture emerging from the polls, however, is clearly far more unfavorable: the economy, inflation, gas prices, and especially foreign policy toward Iran appear to be the largest political weights dragging down the sitting US president. If Democrats win, the US will find itself in "hell" – Trump warns of socialism. In the event of a Democratic victory, the US will be led straight into "hell" — meaning into full socialism. President Donald Trump, during a campaign speech in Las Vegas, launched a fierce attack against Democrats, warning American voters that their victory would lead the country into economic and social catastrophe. "By the end of the year there will be only death, poverty, filth, life in hell, crime, destruction and shame left. <...> You will lose your houses and apartments – the communists will take them from us 100%," Trump warned voters.
The left wing of the Democrats is gaining strength
Indeed, the progressive wing appears particularly strong inside the broader Democratic Party. A prime example is Abdul El-Sayed, son of Egyptian immigrants and an epidemiologist physician, who won the primary elections in Michigan. His opponent was incumbent Representative Haley Stevens, who spent 30 times more money on her campaign than El-Sayed, without that proving sufficient to secure her victory. Among her major financial backers was the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC campaign group). "Money has no place in politics. Money belongs in your pocket. Free healthcare for everyone," El-Sayed declared following his victory. In the November elections, he will face off against Republican Representative Mike Rogers directly. Should he prevail, El-Sayed has the opportunity to become the first Muslim senator in US political history.
Republican primary upset in Michigan
In Michigan as well, but during the Republican primary for the House of Representatives, another major political blow occurred. Trump-backed candidate Amir Hassan, a Navy veteran, gathered only 33% and was defeated by engineer Thomas Smith, who received 50% of votes. In fact, on the eve of the election process, the veteran had wanted to drop out of the race because he had raised less than $2,000 in financial campaign support. However, the ballots had already been printed, forcing him to remain in the contest essentially without realistic prospects of success.
"Black swan" for Trump – Rift among Republicans
The General Director of the Center for Political Information, Alexei Mukhin, points out that despite Trump's triumphant public statements, many American voters feel the president is not doing enough for America. According to him, this dynamic has already caused a rift within the GOP political base. "If Democrats win, they will do everything to turn Trump into a 'lame duck' president. During the first year and a half of his administration, he attacked them with every available tool, and now they will respond in the exact same manner," he estimates. As he argues, Democrats could initiate criminal proceedings against Trump for abuse of power, personal enrichment, and other legal matters. "They will completely paralyze his presidential work," the expert maintains.
Democrats could capture the House
Senior Researcher at the Institute for US and Canada Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vladimir Vasiliev, estimates that Democrats are likely to wrest control of the House of Representatives from the ruling Republican Party. In the Senate, however, he expects a fine balance of power, where a one-vote margin could be decided by Vice President JD Vance himself. "In practice, this means Democrats will not allow Trump to move forward with the reforms he considers vital. Essentially, they will return him to the political realities of his first presidential term," the analyst notes. At the same time, he estimates that impeachment proceedings could be formally initiated. "It is unlikely lawmakers will manage to remove Trump from the presidency outright. However, in this manner, they will rally voters around the idea that the next president should not be a Republican candidate again," he adds. As he notes, given that Democrats still lack an exceptionally strong singular leader, such a strategy appears logical.
The battle will be decided in 10-15 swing districts
However, several months still remain until the elections, and according to the same analysis, the final outcome may hinge on just 10-15 swing districts. The fact that Republicans possess far greater financial resources than Democrats means they still hold the capability to attract key voters to side with them. Despite this, if the Republican Party fails in this effort, Donald Trump will face a political "black mark" that could decisively impact the remainder of his second presidential term.
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