If ND falls below 25%, political and party developments will obviously be rapid. ND will have lost 55% of its strength in seats, it will have lost the seat bonus, and Mitsotakis will announce succession actions.
Therefore, because at Maximos Mansion they know the disaster scenario, they are working on plans to stay in power.
The 28% threshold for remaining in power
A source speaking to BN states that 28% as a base ensures that Mitsotakis will remain leader of ND and aspiring contenders will not challenge him.
With 28%, ND will need only one party for a coalition government.
One scenario examined is whether ND can exceed 30% through abstention.
The pollsters of Maximos Mansion and existing mechanisms have identified that abstention favors them.
Traditional voters of ND, mainly the elderly, will go to vote. Therefore, if abstention is high, through abstention the denominator, that is the electoral base of valid votes, will decrease, and thus the percentage of ND will increase even if in absolute numbers it has lost 1.1 million voters compared to the 2023 elections.
Mitsotakis, we will not get rid of him easily, does not plan to leave, and he will do everything to remain in power.
Contenders are backing down
In the 28% scenario, aspiring contenders will back down since no one will step forward to challenge Mitsotakis for leadership.
The only clean solution that will lead to political change is for ND to fall below 25% and for there to be high turnout among citizens and voters, who amount to 9.8 million citizens.
The higher the turnout, the more the plans of Maximos Mansion and Mitsotakis fade away.
Abstention favors Mitsotakis
In any case, if Mitsotakis manages to become prime minister for a third term, he will be able to plan his European future in 2028 or 2029 from a position of strength.
This is the scenario being worked on at Maximos for the May 2027 elections.
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