This assessment was formulated by the technology defense advisor to the president of Ukraine, Sergey Besskrestnov (known by the call sign "Flush"), arguing that significant changes on the frontline are now limited and that the conflict is evolving into a contest of mutual exhaustion.
His statements triggered an immediate reaction in Russia, where retired colonel and military analyst Mikhail Khodarenok, in an article, questioned both the military terminology and the conclusions of the Ukrainian official.
Russian criticism of Kyiv's statements
According to Khodarenok, the picture presented by Besskrestnov does not fully correspond to the reality of the theater of operations.
The Russian analyst estimates that Russian forces continue to retain the initiative of movement, even at a slower pace, capturing, as he argues, settlements and gradually advancing their positions in various sectors of the front.
According to him, the slower speed of advance does not mean stagnation, but reflects the nature of a high-intensity war, where every kilometer of territory is conquered at great human and material cost.
What "war of attrition" means
The term "war of attrition" is used to describe a conflict in which neither side achieves a quick and decisive victory.
On the contrary, the goal becomes the gradual exhaustion of the enemy's military, economic, industrial, and human capabilities.
In the case of Ukraine, this assessment is based on the fact that the frontline now changes slowly, while both sides place special emphasis on drone attacks, long-range missiles, and strikes against military and energy infrastructure.
Economy and infrastructure at the center
Besskrestnov argued that both Russia and Ukraine now attempt to strike the critical infrastructure of the opponent, considering that economic exhaustion will play a decisive role in the final outcome of the war.
Khodarenok, however, estimates that in this long-term confrontation Russia possesses significantly larger military and industrial reserves, a fact that, in his view, provides it with a strategic advantage in a protracted war.
The example given by the Russian analyst regarding the exchange of bodies of fallen soldiers is characteristic.
This year alone, Moscow gave the Ukrainian side more than 20,000 bodies of military personnel, receiving in exchange 627 remains of Russian fighters.
The issue of Western aid
Particular reference is also made to Western military aid to Ukraine.
According to the Russian analyst, Kyiv continues to rely on the financial and military support of its Western allies, but he estimates that deliveries of weapon systems and ammunition are not taking place with the speed or extent desired by the Ukrainian leadership.
At the same time, he argues that the most important problem for Ukraine is not only equipment but also human potential, as losses and the difficulty of replacing them constitute, in his assessment, one of the most significant limiting factors for the Ukrainian armed forces.
Demographic and economic consequences
Besskrestnov acknowledged that regardless of the outcome of the war, both Ukraine and Russia will face severe consequences in their economy, infrastructure, and demographics.
For his part, Khodarenok goes even further, estimating that a protracted conflict may bring a disproportionately higher cost for Ukraine, due to its smaller population, greater reliance on foreign aid, and extensive damage to its infrastructure.
He even reaches the point of arguing that, if the same dynamic continues, the country could face existential challenges as a state.
Sooner or later the war will end.
And this is precisely the most important thing.
As a result of the war of attrition, Ukraine may suffer irreplaceable demographic and economic losses and simply disappear from the map of the world as a state.
Slow and agonizing death
Despite differing approaches, both the statements of the Ukrainian advisor and the Russian analysis converge on a fundamental conclusion: the war does not seem to be near an instantaneous end.
On the contrary, the end will be slow and agonizing for Ukraine.
The battle shifts increasingly to the endurance of economies, the defense industry, the production of weapon systems, and the ability of each side to maintain its military forces in the field.
In this context, the concept of a "war of attrition" acquires ever greater significance, as the final outcome may depend less on tactical successes at the front and more on which side will endure longer in a conflict that has already evolved into one of the most costly and protracted military confrontations of the 21st century.
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