The US and Israel are considering a new plan to escalate pressure against Iran, this time not through air strikes or direct military confrontation, but through a large scale land blockade aiming at the economic weakening of Tehran.
According to an exclusive report by the Telegraph, the plan is allegedly a topic of discussion between American President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, within the framework of a new strategy combining military and political means of pressure.
The primary objective is to drastically limit the ability of Iran to conduct imports and exports through its land borders, effectively imposing an economic blockade without the official declaration of war.
From bombs to economic siege
The military operations and air strikes of recent months failed to achieve the strategic goal of Tehran's retreat.
On the contrary, the Iranian government maintained its cohesion, while the country's military capabilities were not neutralized to the extent pursued by Western plans.
Under these circumstances, Washington and Tel Aviv appear to be shifting the weight of confrontation to the economy, attempting to strike the supply chain and cross-border trade of Iran.
Pressure plan toward neighboring countries
The proposed plan envisions intense diplomatic pressure toward almost all countries bordering Iran.
Specifically, the following are targeted:
1) Iraq
2) Pakistan
3) Turkey
4) Turkmenistan
5) Afghanistan
6) Armenia
7) Azerbaijan
The goal is for the governments of the above countries to limit or even close key border crossings, significantly hindering the movement of goods to and from Iran.
If fully implemented, such a plan could severely impact imports of raw materials, exports of Iranian products, and the overall economic activity of the country.
A strategy of economic suffocation
Critics of American and Israeli policy argue that this is a form of economic warfare, attempting to enforce political outcomes through economic pressure rather than direct military conflict.
As they point out, this strategy may primarily burden the civilian population, limiting access to essential goods, raw materials, and commercial transactions, while simultaneously increasing the risk of destabilizing the entire region.
At the same time, analysts consider that the attempt to involve all neighboring states in such a blockade would create severe geopolitical tensions, as many of these countries maintain significant economic and energy ties with Iran and would hardly accept a complete termination of their cooperation.
Implementation difficulties
Despite the planning, several experts estimate that the realization of such an extensive land blockade would be extremely difficult.
The borders of Iran stretch for thousands of kilometers, while the commercial and energy interconnections of the country with its neighbors are an important factor for the region's economies.
Furthermore, such an initiative would require unprecedented coordination among states with differing geopolitical interests, a fact that makes its implementation particularly complex.
In conclusion, the plan of the US and Israel signals a transition from direct military pressure to a more complex strategy of economic isolation of Iran.
Critics of this approach argue that it is a policy attempting to impose geopolitical objectives through economic suffocation, with potential consequences not only for Iran but also for the stability of the entire Middle East.
At the same time, the success of such a plan remains uncertain, as the cooperation of all neighboring countries is not considered guaranteed and the geopolitical balances of the region are particularly fragile.
How Iran will react
The Iranian leadership characterizes the plan as an "act of economic warfare", arguing that the US and Israel are attempting to achieve through economic isolation what they failed to accomplish through military operations.
Tehran has repeatedly stated that it considers sanctions and blockade attempts a form of illegal pressure, while it would attempt to strengthen its trade relations even further with Russia, China, and the organizations in which it participates, such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, to reduce its reliance on Western markets.
Iraq: The difficult neighbor
Iraq would hardly accept a complete closure of the borders.
It possesses extensive commercial, energy, and religious relations with Iran, while powerful pro-Iranian political and military forces operate internally.
Such a decision could trigger a severe political crisis in Baghdad.
Turkey: Economy above all
Turkey maintains competitive relations with Iran on several regional issues, yet remains an important commercial and energy partner.
Ankara is more likely to reinforce border controls for security reasons or migration pressures, rather than accept a complete economic blockade that would also harm its own economy.
Pakistan: Balance between two worlds
Pakistan maintains strategic relations with the US, but also close proximity to Iran.
Islamabad usually seeks balance and avoids actions that could cause severe destabilization on its western borders.
Afghanistan: Limited capabilities
Afghanistan faces severe economic and humanitarian difficulties.
The Taliban government would likely seek to keep commercial channels open with Iran, as a large portion of essential goods enters through this route.
Turkmenistan: Neutrality as a priority
Turkmenistan historically follows a policy of neutrality and cooperates in energy with Iran.
Full participation in a blockade would contradict this policy and create problems for the country's energy agreements.
Armenia: Crucial passage toward Iran
For Armenia, the border with Iran constitutes a strategically important trade passage.
Yerevan would hardly accept its closure, as this would significantly limit its international economic options.
Azerbaijan: The most complex front
Azerbaijan maintains close cooperation with Israel on defense and security matters, a fact that could make it more receptive to American pressure. However, the government in Baku will have to carefully weigh the risk of further deteriorating its already delicate relations with Tehran.
Could the plan be implemented?
Despite the discussions reportedly taking place, many analysts estimate that a full land blockade of Iran is extremely difficult to implement in practice.
The seven neighboring countries have different interests, different relations with Washington, and varying degrees of economic dependence on Tehran.
Furthermore, the length of Iran's borders, existing trade corridors, and energy partnerships render such a plan particularly complex and probably incomplete in its execution.
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