A cheap, yet extraordinarily lethal ballistic missile has turned into the biggest headache for the US military in the Middle East.
The reason is the Iranian Kheibar Shekan, which manages to breach advanced US defense lines by combining agility, high precision, and low manufacturing costs. Thus, at the same time that Iran launches waves of missiles alongside drones to cause confusion for radars, the Pentagon finds itself facing a nightmare scenario, the rapid depletion of its expensive interceptor ammunition, a fact that forces US commanders to choose which targets to shoot down and which to let pass.
Breached US air defenses
Although ballistic missiles are relatively easy targets to shoot down (compared to hypersonic missiles) due to their fixed trajectories, several Kheibar Shekan have penetrated US air defense systems in the Middle East, drawing the attention of US military officials and security analysts.
According to anonymous US officials who spoke to the Wall Street Journal, Iran has adapted its military tactics using Kheibar Shekan ballistic missiles to target US bases across the Middle East, modifying flight paths, speeds, and maneuvers in the air to breach US air defense.
Iran relies increasingly on these cheap missiles to breach US defense lines, using them as part of complex attacks, where they are launched alongside a barrage of cheap drones and fixed trajectory missiles, to cause confusion for US air defense. These complex attacks, alongside the changes introduced to the Kheibar Shekan ballistic missiles to make them more lethal and harder to intercept, highlight that Iran is an adaptive adversary.
So what is this Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile that has become the new headache for the US military and what makes it so lethal?
The "Destroyer of Kheibar"
The Kheibar Shekan, or "Destroyer of Kheibar", owes its name to a Jewish castle captured by Muslim warriors in the early days of Islam.
In 628 AD, Prophet Muhammad himself led a military campaign against the Jewish communities living in the oasis of Khaybar. It is a medium range ballistic missile revealed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in 2022. It belongs to the Fateh solid fuel missile family and represents one of the most advanced developments of the missile program of Iran.
According to Iranian claims, the missile has a range of approximately 1,400 to 2,400 kilometers. This allows it to strike targets in most of the Middle East, including Israel. Additionally, the missile travels at a speed of over 6,000 miles per hour (about 9,650 km/h).
It carries a warhead of 550 kg in its front section.
Unlike older Iranian liquid fuel missiles, the Kheibar Shekan uses a solid fuel propulsion system. This design offers several advantages: missiles can be stored for longer periods of time in a state of readiness, require less time for launch preparation, and can be redeployed quickly after use.
This represents a significant progress, as older missiles of Iran required a time consuming refueling process before launch, a fact that made them easier to spot and target for the US.
However, Kheibar Shekan can be kept refueled and loaded quickly onto trucks or other launch vehicles, making their targeting difficult.
For modern missile systems, rapid deployment has become an important factor. Even a precision missile has limited effectiveness if its launchers are easy to spot and destroy.
Despite these advantages, the US was able to shoot them down easily due to their fixed, easily predictable flight trajectories. Ballistic missiles travel to the upper layers of the atmosphere into space before diving back toward the target, usually at hypersonic speeds, but are not capable of maneuvers in the terminal phase of their flight.
Here is where the Kheibar Shekan differs and becomes more lethal.
According to US military officials, in certain Kheibar Shekan, the front section of the missile, which carries the explosive head and detaches during the terminal phase, is equipped with a small engine that gives it the ability to adjust its flight path in the terminal phase as it approaches its target. This maneuver in the terminal phase makes interception by air defense systems much more difficult.
Another advantage is its cost. The cost ratio between offensive and defensive means constitutes a major differentiating factor.
Although Iran has not officially disclosed the cost of the Kheibar Shekan, experts believe it is significantly cheaper than the interceptors used by the US, such as the Patriot, THAAD, and the SM-6 interceptors of the US Navy.
For example, an SM-6 interceptor missile can cost around 4, 5 million dollars, while a PAC-3 MSE missile for the Patriot system costs about 4, 6 million dollars per unit.
The significantly lower price of the Kheibar Shekan creates the problem of "air defense cost exhaustion", as even a successful interception would harm the US more due to the higher replacement cost of its interceptor ammunition.
Furthermore, according to some reports, the satellite guided missile now uses the Chinese BeiDou satellite navigation system (BNSS), a fact that increases its accuracy.
Mobility, rapid deployment, accuracy, terminal stage flexibility, and cost of the Kheibar Shekan make it a lethal missile.
Combining the Kheibar Shekan with drones
However, the Iranian strategy of launching them alongside dozens of high speed drones and other ballistic missiles makes their interception even harder.
According to defense and security expert Patricia Marins, Iran possessed a stockpile of around 2,000, 2,200 Kheibar Shekan before the 12 day war, while today, after the conflict with the US, it still possesses around 1,700 missiles in its arsenal.
She further estimates that almost one third of the Kheibar Shekan missiles have been upgraded with the BeiDou satellite navigation system.
"I think what this shows us is that Iran is paying attention, learning and looking for ways in which it can hit us," retired Army General Joseph Votel, former head of US Central Command (CENTCOM), told the WSJ.
Iran "has seen what types of maneuvers are most effective for overcoming missile defense," said Fabian Hinz, an independent expert on missile systems. "Every single operational use gives you some kind of data, so this is very useful for the Iranians."
Meanwhile, another headache for the US is the diminishing interceptor stockpiles.
US stockpiles are shrinking
In April, in a detailed study, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimated that up to that point, the US had already spent almost half of its SM-3 missiles, nearly a quarter of its SM-6 missiles, two thirds of its THAAD interceptors, and over half of its pre war stockpile of Patriot interceptors.
This diminishing stockpile of interceptors means that the US is forced to prioritize which incoming projectiles to intercept, intentionally allowing certain Iranian projectiles to pass through its air defense.
US military commanders select which Iranian missiles and drones loaded with explosives to intercept, allowing certain attacks to pass through defense lines, in an effort to maintain the shrinking supply of Pentagon weapons that block projectiles before they reach their targets, two senior US officials told NBC News.
US officials also stated that in some cases the military intentionally allowed Iranian missiles and drones to strike US bases if no personnel were stationed there.
Certain defense experts estimate that this diminishing stockpile of interceptors was the key factor for the US to pause its air strikes in Iran on July 27.
According to the New York Times, US President Donald Trump backed down from escalating the war against Iran after his advisors warned him about the risks of depleting the missile stockpiles of America.
According to officials, Washington believes that Russia and China are closely monitoring the rate of depletion of US military stockpiles and could take it into account in their planning for military actions.
However, the depleted interceptor stockpiles of the US and open admissions by US officials that the new Iranian strategy, combined with improved missiles like the Kheibar Shekan, makes interception even harder, mean that Tehran will negotiate hard for concessions in its talks with Washington.
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