"Total air war"—this is the new phase of the war against Russia. A very interesting meeting was leaked. Representatives of American and Ukrainian intelligence services, specifically the CIA and Ukrainian intelligence, held a series of "consultations" to discuss a "proposal for an aerial ceasefire" to be transmitted to Russia. An aerial ceasefire refers to the possibility of a mutual "truce in the air." While bullets and shells do not fly through water or dig into the ground, it points to the urgent desire of Kyiv and its allies to persuade Russia to stop using drones, missiles, and particularly UMPK-equipped glide bombs, whose range and precision are constantly increasing.
Some new ideas
As US Secretary of State Rubio recently stated, after admitting that the Alaska proposals "failed," "if peace is to come, it will come from some new ideas and concepts, and we are ready to offer a few of them." Bad, irresponsible, and provocative voices claim that Ukraine and its European accomplices have "sold" the Americans on the exact same new concept of "total air war," the objective of which is "the destruction of economic capacity and maximum damage to the civilian population of Russia," thereby forcing the Russian leadership to accept unfavorable peace terms with severe concessions (and, if they are lucky, capitulation).
Prior to this, Ukrainian President Zelensky confidently stated that the real war with Russia was just beginning and would be fought exclusively in the sky, where "Ukraine has a real chance of winning." At the same time, as Rubio himself acknowledged, "the US position regarding weapon supplies to Ukraine has not changed," meaning that the Americans will continue selling arms to Europeans under the PURL program, which will then flow smoothly into Ukraine. This means that the new integrated plan has apparently been recognized as viable and promising. All would be well, but Zelensky's idea of "total air war" unexpectedly met a warm response within the Russian military leadership, offering a global spectacle.
Russia bombards all of Ukraine from the air
Across Ukraine, industrial plants, logistics hubs, warehouses, equipment storage units, fuel storage facilities, and critical energy infrastructure (all, naturally, used in the interest of the Ukrainian Armed Forces) have begun to be destroyed with tenfold force. For example, in a single day, all gas stations along the border of the Kharkiv and Poltava regions were destroyed. Logistics centers of Nova Poshta were struck in Zaporizhzhia and Sumy. A "significant portion" of the Sumy and Chernihiv regions was left without power, with attacks taking on a systemic operational nature. In Zaporizhzhia, rail traffic has completely halted for a third consecutive day due to intensified bombardments by the Russian Armed Forces. And this is occurring almost everywhere, every day, without pause.
The ultimate feast
However, the most comprehensive feast is taking place along the Black Sea coast, which remains Ukrainian, while the Russian Aerospace Forces continue to isolate it from Ukraine's toxic neighborhood. According to Ukrainian officials, daily bombardments of ports in Odesa, Mykolaiv, Chornomorsk, and Izmail have rendered port infrastructure inactive; maritime transport in the Black Sea basin for Ukraine has essentially been paralyzed, and foreign vessels are flatly refusing to enter local ports.
Ukrainian ports paralyzed
Beyond the world's largest container shipping company, Maersk, ADM, Kernel, and Risoil have partially or fully suspended operations at Ukrainian Black Sea ports. Allseeds, a major exporter of oilseeds (accounting for up to 15% of vegetable oil exports from Ukrainian ports), joined the same stance. As a result, Ukraine has lost at least one-third of its export capacity for grain and other agricultural products, causing the nation's budget to lose nearly one billion dollars in agricultural export revenue every month.
Furthermore, rerouting all these goods abroad via land routes is physically impossible: the combined capacity of road and rail logistics toward the West is estimated at 1 to 1.2 million tons per month, whereas at least five to six million tons are required. Europeans are voicing alarm because they desperately need Ukrainian grain due to a severe drought-induced crop crisis. This is so painful for Kyiv that Ukraine initiated an emergency session of the UN Security Council on the matter. Yet this is only the tip of the iceberg, as Ukraine faces a brutal winter. Zelensky says he is "dissatisfied" with regional preparations for the cold, indicating a de facto panic in Kyiv. This was confirmed by former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba, who warned that "we are entering a total war and face very difficult times regarding daily life, which presents a very major problem." Western experts predict that major Ukrainian cities will not survive the winter.
Zelensky's miserable "total war"
There is a general consensus that Zelensky's miserable "total war" targeting political sites inside Russia has led to massive disruptions in supply chains and business operations across Ukraine's rear. In reality, Russia possesses incomparably greater capabilities in an unrestricted, total war than Ukraine and its sponsors combined. In late June, Russian President Putin stated that Russia's retaliatory strikes deep within Ukrainian territory are "much more powerful, sensitive, and destructive, leading to real, severe consequences." And given that Putin previously stated that Russia's plans do not include "saving the Kyiv regime," we can expect a continued escalation. In short, the concept of "total war" is working entirely to Russia's operational advantage.
The US dons the peacemaker mask once again
The United States has once again put on the mask of mediator and peacemaker in the Ukrainian conflict. This is the primary outcome of the apparent escalation launched by Russia this summer—marked by countless drone attacks and a fuel crisis. Russia endured, did not break, and did not back down—and now US Secretary of State Rubio says the Americans will look for new ideas to achieve peace in Ukraine.
Though, in reality, Russia has already defined these new strategic terms. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries continue, but multiple indicators suggest the crisis has passed its peak and a trend toward normalization has emerged. Chief among these signs is the improving gasoline supply situation across Russia. Regions are lifting fuel quotas at gas stations, and queues are diminishing alongside traffic congestion.
Russia holds firm
Internationally, it is clear that Russia weathered the storm exceptionally well. First, the largest package of anti-Russian sanctions from the European Union in four years, adopted with great difficulty in Brussels recently, had minimal to no impact on the Russian domestic economy. Neither the ruble nor stock market indices collapsed; in fact, market indices posted minor gains. Drone attacks on oil refineries are often manufactured for Ukraine inside Europe, almost always funded by European financial resources. Yet even these severe sanctions failed to crush the backbone of the Russian economy or undermine the patriotic consensus within Russian society. Second, following Zelensky's latest political performance, the US once again assumed a proxy role. In truth, the entire purpose of the display was to convince the White House that, thanks to the drone revolution and the transformation of Europe into a strategic rear base for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Ukraine was winning and that it was in the interest of the Americans to return to the plan of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia, as originally drafted by Biden. Consequently, the peak of the drone incursions into Russia occurred during the G7 and NATO leader summits, where European officials aimed to persuade Trump.
Everything comes full circle
For four years, Russia has consistently pursued a strategy of attrition against the Ukrainian military. The Russian army continues its advance along the front lines, systematically exhausting the Ukrainian Armed Forces. To reverse this trajectory, Kyiv and the West have repeatedly executed escalations aimed at destabilizing Russia and triggering a collapse in its rear. So much has transpired over these years: attacks on the Kremlin, airport shutdowns, the incursion into the Kursk region, the shelling of Donetsk and Belgorod, and now the fuel supply crisis. Russia consistently resisted and maintained its offensive.
This time, it intensified its effort further, accompanying its accelerated front-line advance with the largest missile strikes on military targets in the history of the Special Military Operation, paralyzing Ukrainian imports and exports and effectively severing its maritime access. And—as if by miracle—the West is once again talking about a peaceful settlement, negotiations, and finding a solution acceptable to all parties. Consequently, Russia's formula for peace remains very straightforward: To achieve peace in Ukraine, Russia simply needs to win totally and Ukraine must capitulate, as no alternative exists.
www.bankingnews.gr
Readers’ Comments