"Direct contact with the Turkish military at sea could happen as early as tomorrow morning." This dramatic warning from an Israeli minister captures the explosive climate forming in the Eastern Mediterranean. Confronted with the superiority and modernization of Turkish submarines, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) are considering the procurement of the high-cost P-8 Poseidon, while Greece already serves as Israel's partner in regional planning, along with all the risks that may entail...
The P-8 Poseidon acquisition
According to reports, Israel is considering the acquisition of the US maritime patrol and anti-submarine warfare aircraft P-8 Poseidon, amid concerns regarding regional naval threats, particularly from Turkey. The P-8 is a militarized derivative of the Boeing 737-800, primarily utilized for maritime patrol, anti-submarine warfare (ASW), surface warfare, as well as Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) missions, among other roles. Officials contend that the IDF already possesses high-level anti-submarine warfare capabilities and operates a unique, advanced strategic intelligence and surveillance aircraft named Oron, which is capable of supporting multi-branch missions involving the Air Force, Military Intelligence, the Navy, and the Ministry of Defense. Adding the P-8 aircraft to the IDF's arsenal would allow Israel to deploy specialized sensors or long-range submarine detection weapons across vast maritime expanses that current platforms cover less optimally.
Extremely high price tag
However, according to the same information, the IDF would have to pay a particularly steep price for the aircraft. Indeed, it is estimated that even purchasing a small number of P-8 Poseidon aircraft is considered exceptionally expensive for the IDF due to high unit costs and an Israeli defense budget already strained by war. Recent Foreign Military Sales (FMS) packages and US Navy budget figures indicate that the actual price is much higher than in past deals. It is noted that the P-8 carries a flyaway cost of approximately $328.5 million per aircraft, according to the US Navy's FY2027 budget request. Based on reports from Israel, the only realistic path forward would likely require the purchase to be integrated into a broader diplomatic or strategic agreement with the United States. If Israel proceeds with the purchase—which appears unlikely at this stage due to the elevated cost—it will become the 12th operator of the P-8, following the US, United Kingdom, Australia, India, Norway, New Zealand, South Korea, Germany, Canada, Singapore, and Denmark.
Scenario for a hot episode between Israel and Turkey in the Mediterranean
The procurement of the P-8 is being evaluated due to concerns over Turkey's expanding naval and submarine capabilities in the Eastern Mediterranean. While Israel continues to view Iran and its regional proxies—Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis—as its primary adversaries, relations with Turkey stand at their lowest point in decades, marked by mutual accusations, trade suspensions, and intensifying strategic rivalry. Turkey has condemned Israel's military campaign in Gaza and has even issued arrest warrants for war crimes against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu, for his part, has hardened his rhetoric toward Turkey while deepening ties with Greece and Cyprus, both of which hold long-standing disputes with Ankara.
Israeli officials have expressed concern that Turkey's increasingly aggressive rhetoric against Israel could escalate into a direct confrontation. Earlier this year, friction manifested in a standoff-like scenario when Turkey threatened to escort a humanitarian aid fleet bound for Gaza with missile boats—a plan abandoned only after intense diplomatic pressure from Israel and the United States.
Turkey's military buildup
Israel is closely monitoring Turkey's military expansion and remains fully aware that the Turkish Navy is one of the largest and most powerful in the Middle East. Furthermore, it has been modernized through foreign acquisitions (such as from Germany) and domestic defense programs. The Turkish Navy operates more than 10 active diesel-electric submarines. It is constructing new submarines featuring Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) systems, which extend the duration a submarine can remain submerged without snorkeling, while utilizing older vessels for training before gradually retiring them. Additionally, it possesses numerous frigates, corvettes, missile boats, fast patrol craft, amphibious forces, and the TCG drone carrier with TB3 aircraft on board.
In contrast, Israel's navy is much smaller and focuses primarily on coastal defense, submarine operations, and safeguarding offshore natural gas fields. This creates a power imbalance in the maritime domain that could be addressed through additional acquisitions like the P-8 Poseidon, which would maintain a watchful eye on Turkish naval movements. "There could be direct contact with the Turkish military at sea," warned Minister of Diaspora Affairs Amichai Chikli during a press conference. "This is not an unthinkable scenario; it could happen as early as tomorrow morning."
A watchful eye on the Turkish Navy
Derived from the Boeing 737-800 commercial airliner, the P-8 is a versatile maritime patrol aircraft capable of executing roles such as anti-submarine warfare, surface warfare, intelligence gathering, surveillance, reconnaissance, and search and rescue missions. "The P-8 has the proven capability to effectively conduct overland ISR and command/control (C2) of land forces using its advanced mission system, data link, and electro-optical/infrared sensor suite," notes the manufacturer, Boeing. The P-8 is designed precisely for the missions that concern Israel. It features a maximum range of approximately 7,500 kilometers and an endurance of 10 hours, enabling long-range patrols that could be extended with aerial refueling support. This capability would allow it to monitor strategic maritime chokepoints and patrol routes for extended periods, proving useful if Israel seeks to oversee access to the Eastern Mediterranean.
The aircraft carries a long-range X-band radar capable of detecting maritime targets at distances of hundreds of kilometers, advanced electronic warfare systems, and high-resolution electro-optical and infrared sensors. The AN/APY-10 multi-mission radar provides Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and Inverse SAR (ISAR) modes for surface search, periscope detection, and imaging. Even more importantly, the P-8 is equipped with a magnetic anomaly detector and an acoustic system that can deploy and process a large volume of active and passive sonobuoys—capabilities particularly vital against Turkey's growing fleet of quiet submarines. Regarding armament, the P-8A is equipped with air-to-surface missiles for precision targeting of maritime threats and torpedoes for anti-submarine operations. Featuring High Altitude Anti-Submarine Warfare (HAAWC) capability, the P-8A can engage submarines rapidly and accurately without descending to low altitudes, deploying MK-54 torpedoes as glide bombs from altitudes up to 30,000 feet.
Greece's involvement
Crucially, the P-8 Poseidon features secure data links and functions as a networked sensor platform capable of sharing real-time data with Israeli ships, aircraft, and command centers. This would enable the IDF to facilitate joint force coordination and, if required, broaden cooperation with regional partners such as Greece and Cyprus.
Against submarine threats, the P-8 would expand Israel's capability to detect, locate, and quietly track diesel-electric and AIP-equipped submarines across vast areas—a task difficult to sustain continuously using only surface vessels or shorter-range aircraft. Meanwhile, against surface forces, its radar, optical, and electronic sensors would enhance the tracking of warships and amphibious formations, providing early warning and targeting data simultaneously. This platform would raise the risks and costs of adversary naval activities in Israeli waters or near Israeli energy infrastructure, functioning both as a practical operational tool and a deterrent. In practice, it would complement rather than replace Israel's existing capabilities. Furthermore, it would allow Israel to enhance interoperability with other nations operating the aircraft and strengthen defense cooperation with the US in the West Asia region.
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