An "earthquake" is coming to Bitcoin - The Fed and derivative "bets" decide the game - The 3 scenarios

The cryptocurrency market is walking a tightrope, with the price of Bitcoin searching for its footing around $63,000 following one of the most violent leverage flushes recorded in 2026. While BlackRock CEO Larry Fink attempts to reassure investors by clarifying that the recent plunge is due to excessive derivative bets rather than the asset's underlying fundamentals, the dust from the massive liquidation has not yet settled. Now, market attention turns to crucial contract expirations and upcoming signals expected from the Fed.

The assessment of Larry Fink

In more detail, the price of Bitcoin is fluctuating around the mid-$63,000 range following one of the sharpest leverage flushes of 2026, amid a climate of bearish forecasts. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink attributed Bitcoin's recent volatility to excessive derivative leverage rather than a weakening of its fundamental metrics. Liquidation data supports his view, as billions vanished during the selloff. Most of these losses stemmed from over-leveraged long positions rather than panic selling.

Now that the dust has settled, Bitcoin is trying to maintain its range between $62,000 and $65,000. This shifts focus toward the upcoming options expiration and new messages from the Fed. This time around, price action alone might not tell the whole story.

Instead, institutional demand is evolving into the market's favorite indicator. ETF flows and the positioning of large-scale investors could determine whether Bitcoin will regain its momentum or remain stuck below resistance levels. For now, traders seem content buying dips, but nobody is in a rush to ramp up leverage again.

Bitcoin price prediction

From a technical standpoint, the next test is whether Bitcoin can defend the lower $62,000 zone, which has repeatedly attracted buyers this month. The rebound from these levels demonstrated genuine demand; however, bulls still need to reclaim the $64,500 to $65,000 territory. Until that happens, any upward move risks looking like a dress rehearsal rather than the official premiere.

Three scenarios remain on the table:

The optimistic scenario (bullish): Leverage continues to decompress, institutional demand absorbs supply, ETF inflows remain healthy, and Bitcoin breaks past $65,000 before challenging $70,000. This would finally give buyers a reason to smile, beyond green candles that last for only five minutes.

The baseline scenario (base case): This is less dramatic. Bitcoin could continue chopping between $62,000 and $65,000 while traders await the next macroeconomic catalyst, whether that comes from the Federal Reserve or ETF flows. It is not exciting, but markets rarely provide fireworks every day.

The pessimistic scenario (bearish): This still requires caution. Another derivative-driven flush, following disappointing macroeconomic data, could drag Bitcoin below $62,000 and put the recent recovery under pressure. Larry Fink may remain optimistic, but market leverage did not vanish overnight. For the time being, holding above support matters far more than anyone's crystal ball.

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