JPMorgan focuses its attention on Kinexys, the bank's private blockchain formerly known as Onyx.
JPMorgan estimates that the recent sales of Bitcoin by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) do not constitute the primary threat to the cryptocurrency market. Instead, it considers that the greatest risk to Bitcoin and public blockchains comes from the rapid growth of private banking blockchain networks, which are gaining ground in financial transactions.
The sales of Strategy do not worry JPMorgan
Strategy sold 3,588 Bitcoin worth approximately 216 million dollars in the last week, causing concern in the market, as it still holds about 4.2% of the total circulating supply of Bitcoin.
However, the analysts of JPMorgan, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, argue that this move is linked to technical needs, such as the payment of dividends, and not to a change in the accumulation strategy of Bitcoin. According to the bank, it is a temporary selling pressure that can easily be absorbed by market liquidity.
Kinexys and the rise of private blockchains
JPMorgan focuses its attention on Kinexys, the bank's private blockchain formerly known as Onyx.
According to the analysis, Kinexys has already managed transactions exceeding 4 trillion dollars since its launch, proving that large banks and institutional investors increasingly prefer closed blockchain networks instead of public networks such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The reasons are mainly regulatory and operational:
1) Strict user identification control.
2) Greater data protection.
3) Clear legal framework in case of disputes.
4) Compliance with regulatory requirements.
Risk of marginalization for public blockchains
JPMorgan warns that if large banks and sovereign wealth funds transfer more and more transactions to private blockchains, public networks could lose a significant part of their activity and liquidity.
In such a scenario, Bitcoin may remain primarily as an investment asset or "digital gold", instead of evolving into a core infrastructure of the global financial system.
Why the scenario is not a given
Despite the warning of JPMorgan, the analysis of Cointribune recognizes that there are significant factors that could overturn this picture.
The development of interoperability technologies already allows the connection of private and public blockchains, while historically open networks have proven more innovative and more resilient thanks to the participation of global developer communities.
Furthermore, the core value of Bitcoin is not limited to payments, but to its scarcity, decentralization, and the absence of counterparty risk, characteristics that private banking networks cannot offer.
What it means for the market
JPMorgan does not predict a collapse of Bitcoin, but argues that the biggest battle of the coming years will not concern inflows or outflows of capital, but the competition between public and private blockchains.
The most likely scenario, according to the analysis, is the coexistence of the two models: banks will use private networks for institutional transactions, while public blockchains will continue to operate as open, decentralized infrastructures for investments, tokenization, and digital assets.
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