The European Union is intensifying its diplomatic and economic presence in the South Caucasus, seeking to consolidate its cooperation with Azerbaijan and Armenia in the sectors of energy, transport, and trade. Behind the official agenda, however, analysts estimate that Brussels simultaneously seeks to restrict Russian influence in the region, capitalizing on the geopolitical realignments and the progress in the peace process between Baku and Yerevan.
Ursula von der Leyen in Azerbaijan
Within the framework of a two day tour in the South Caucasus, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, arrived on July 1 in Baku for talks with the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev.
This constitutes the second visit of the head of the European Commission to the capital of Azerbaijan since she assumed her duties in 2019.
During the visit, the cooperation between the European Union and the countries of the region in the energy sector, the development of trade, transport infrastructure, and the supply chain, as well as the support for the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, were discussed.
The EU seeks a stronger presence in the South Caucasus
According to analysts who spoke to Vedomosti, the European Union seeks to deepen economic and transport cooperation with Armenia and Azerbaijan, simultaneously capitalizing on its closer involvement in the region for the advancement of its broader strategic interests and the restriction of Russian influence in the South Caucasus.
The interest turns to Armenia and Azerbaijan
The political scientist and expert on security issues of the South Caucasus, Niyazi Niyazov, stated to Vedomosti that Europe seeks to reinforce its relations with the countries of the region, as the relations of the European Union with Georgia present a decline.
In contrast to Tbilisi, both Baku and Yerevan appear today willing to expand their cooperation with the European partners, particularly in the economic sector.
In the spotlight the new trade corridors
According to Niyazi Niyazov, the talks will focus primarily on the development of the international transport corridors that pass through the South Caucasus toward Europe.
As progress is noted in the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Armenia is expected to assume the role of a transit country for commodities toward Europe through the Middle Corridor, the transport corridor that connects China with Europe through Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
He added that the leadership of the European Union does not follow today a confrontational policy either toward Baku or toward Yerevan, a fact that could favor the development of mutually beneficial economic relations.
Goal also the reduction of Russian influence
The political analyst Artur Ataev estimated that, by reinforcing its relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan, the European Union simultaneously seeks to serve its broader strategic interests against Russia.
As he mentioned, Azerbaijan constitutes an important supplier of hydrocarbons for the European Union.
Regarding Armenia, he argued that Brussels likely will attempt to convince the Armenian leadership to remove the Russian military base from Gyumri, to terminate the mission of the Russian border guards on its borders, and to reduce the economic dependence of the country on the Eurasian Economic Union.
Access to the European market with doubtful prospects
According to Artur Ataev, as the Russian market has essentially closed for many Armenian exporters, the Europeans are likely to offer Armenia greater access to the markets of the European Union.
However, as he pointed out, the question remains open as to whether the Armenian products will be able to find buyers in the European market, given the particularly high level of competition.
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