The military and geopolitical confrontation between Russia, Ukraine and the West has entered a new, exceptionally dangerous phase.
Moscow is broadcasting the message that the margins for diplomatic maneuvers are narrowing and that everything will ultimately be resolved by the force of arms.
NATO, whose chiefs are convening on July 7 to 8 in Ankara, argues that the priority is to reinforce the nuclear dimension of its strategy.
At a time when the so called "spirit of Anchorage" seems to have collapsed before even acquiring institutional substance, Russian officials and analysts warn of impending developments that could fully reshape the front of the Ukrainian conflict.
Among these is also the scenario that wants Belarus to be involved. in one way or another in the conflict of Russia with Ukraine.
No signature in Alaska
On June 28, the President of Russia Vladimir Putin, after a meeting regarding the situation in the fuel sector, answered the questions of the journalist Pavel Zarubin.
Particular attention was given to the so called "spirit of Anchorage".
During the summit of the leaders of Russia and the United States, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, the possibilities of terminating the Ukrainian conflict were discussed.
The two politicians spoke of certain compromises.
However, they did not sign any document.
"The so called spirit of Anchorage was not captured in any official document; no one put any signature," stated Vladimir Putin.
Pressures
The American side was pressing the representatives of Moscow to proceed to concessions.
And the Russian delegation agreed to them.
Putin underlined that Russia is ready to continue to discuss with the United States all the details that had been set in Anchorage.
"It is known that the West seeks the strategic defeat of Russia.
No one officially has withdrawn this position from the agenda," noted Putin.
Now we have the firm conviction that neither Ukraine nor the West intended to implement the Minsk Agreements.
And this says it all.
"I think that it is an absolutely understandable and fully exhaustive interview, which does not need any kind of commentary.
The President of the Russian Federation expressed his position with absolute clarity, absolute precision and absolute persuasiveness," stated the Russian member of parliament Mikhail Delyagin.
NATO will invest in nuclear weapons, do Brussels know it?
Meanwhile, Poland estimated that NATO must radically change its strategy.
The new orientation that was proclaimed is that NATO will invest in nuclear weapons.
"I cannot but ask: Do the guys in Brussels know this?" wonders Delyagin.
The Minister of Defense of Poland, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, stated that at the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara, the decision of the Alliance to invest in nuclear deterrence capabilities will be officially confirmed.
According to him, this decision was taken during the recent meeting of the Ministers of Defense of the NATO countries and aims at reinforcing the nuclear deterrence capabilities of the Alliance.
The role of Poland
"We took the decision and made it clear that the Alliance will invest in nuclear deterrence capabilities.
This is very important and will be confirmed at the summit," the Polish minister assured.
However, he did not specify exactly which danger he intends to deter.
Mikhail Delyagin described what could happen if Poland acquired its own nuclear weapons, even within the framework of NATO.
Then the claims of Warsaw, with which it demands from Germany the payment of war reparations, would acquire an absolutely clear and substantial basis.
"Then it will no longer be about empty statements, but about a specific demand for absolutely reasonable sums of money.
Because to demand one trillion euros from Germany, under the current conditions, provided it is paid in installments, is an absolutely normal amount.
And Mr. Merz certainly will raise objections initially, but under the threat of use of nuclear weapons, of course he will pay them" underlines the Russian member of parliament.
Drama is coming
Apart from this, within the next days several serious, dramatic events are expected, Delyagin estimates.
"Trump, seeing among other things the weakness of the Russian bureaucracy, has for the time being abandoned the "spirit of Anchorage".
As it appears, in Ankara it will be assigned precisely to Trump to formulate the ultimatum of the collective western world toward our country.
We still have the capability, we still have time, so that we prevent this possibility" reports the Russian member of parliament, emphasizing "the duty of Russia is to demonstrate decisiveness and effectiveness. We do not need to become strong and scary.
We are already strong.
We simply hide our strength in such a way, so that no one, anywhere, fears us".
The ... real estate agent Trump
"We still have time to proceed to the necessary actions and become, in the eyes of the West, truly scary.
Then the situation will normalize" estimates Delyagin, reporting that in his view the real strategy of the West is in 2030, or, if they catch up despite their own bureaucracy, already from 2029, to attack Russia and simply seize its resources.
"Trump, in Anchorage, was speaking in the style of a real estate agent from New York: "I control Ukraine, everything is fine.
Now I will force them to reach an agreement".
Our people answered: "Okay, if you are ready, you can force them. Let us agree. We accept your proposals; they are, in principle, logical. Go ahead then and act" reported the Russian analyst and member of parliament.
They are preparing an ultimatum to Russia
Subsequently, Trump realized what, as it is argued, he already suspected: that the regime in Kyiv does not constitute his own property, but property of England, and that he could do nothing about it.
Then, the Europeans, through a series of moves, convinced him that Russia is weak and that it is much more advantageous to plunder it rather than to trade with it.
"If everything continues to develop as it develops now, on July 7 - 8 an ultimatum will be served to us in Ankara, in front of which the Istanbul of December 1999 will look like a pitiful toy," estimates Mikhail Delyagin.
What must be done?
"But, if in the eyes of the West we become truly scary and unpredictable, if we show that we can defend ourselves with the same effectiveness as the leadership of North Korea (not to mention the Chinese leadership), then the situation will be different.
I do not mean to defend ourselves in practice, but to create this impression.
Then the weaponry that Europe has gathered will be used for the settlement of the timeless intra-European disputes.
For what reason does Poland possess two thirds of East Prussia?
To whom do Alsace and Lorraine truly belong?
For what absurd reason is South Tyrol Italian, while they speak German there?
And so on," underlined the Russian member of parliament, reporting that then Europe will sink into its own historical process of resolving its internal disputes.
"If however we continue the current policy, which reminds dangerously of the policy of appeasement of the aggressor, then we will not receive an ultimatum only on July 7 to 8," said Delyagin.
Terror ... with Belarus
At the same time, Russian media report that Ukraine continues its offensive actions and its leadership still examines what could be the reactions of Moscow in case of an attack against Belarus.
On the night toward Wednesday, July 1, on tracking channels information appeared that Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles had entered the airspace of Belarus.
Almost immediately after, information was published about retaliatory launches of "Iskander" missiles from Belarusian territory.
A little later, both news items were refuted by the channels themselves.
The Syrsky intervention
The incident constituted an interesting background for the statement of the chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, who left clear hints about the destruction of one of the repeaters that, according to him, are installed in Belarus and are used for the control of the Russian "Geran" unmanned aerial vehicles.
"They have not yet been dismantled.
Yesterday a repeater was activated.
I think that they will not activate them again," stated with visible satisfaction the chief of the Ukrainian armed forces.
"They will not be able to, because this will now be physically impossible," an Ukrainian journalist attempted to clarify.
"I cannot reveal everything to you.
I think that they will understand that it is not worth doing it, let us put it that way.
We possess many means.
We have experience, we have trained crews, we have prepared troops.
That is, we possess all that is needed so that we do not fear actions toward this direction and ensure, at least, that it will become impossible to use the unmanned aerial vehicles of the opponent, especially their flights along the borders," stated Syrsky.
The information of the tracking channels, which subsequently was refuted, in combination with the statements of Syrsky, allows to assume that the two sides may have exchanged strikes, but for the time being prefer not to publicize the situation.
In any case, it is apparent that from the Ukrainian side "the ground is being prepared" for a potential expansion of the conflict.
Will Russia answer with an attack?
In late June, the American newspaper The Wall Street Journal reported that Russia, through its ambassador to Belarus, is attempting to encourage the Belarusians to enter the war.
According to the publication, the territory of Belarus could be used both for the expansion of the front against Ukraine and for operations against Poland and the Baltic countries, with the goal of binding NATO forces and restricting the aid that the Ukrainian armed forces receive.
Scenarios of analysts
The possibility of an attack against Ukraine from the territory of Belarus was being discussed by Western analysts already before the start of the "Special Military Operation".
First, because it would allow the start of battles in Volhynia.
Russia would place under threat the strategically important transportation hub of Lviv.
Second, a threat of capturing the nuclear power plant of Rivne would be created and, under these conditions, Kyiv would have to seriously consider whether it desires to continue the attacks against the nuclear power plant of Zaporizhia or whether it would be preferable for the nuclear installations to remain outside the conflict.
In addition, the capability of advancing toward Kyiv and Zhytomyr from the north would theoretically be created.
The prospects of such a step are considered so obvious that the topic returns every year, particularly within the framework of joint military exercises.
Exceptionally difficult advance to Kyiv through Belarus
Syrsky estimates that, for the time being, neither of these two scenarios is timely.
The chief of the Ukrainian armed forces confirmed what has been analyzed already several times: that is, that an advance toward Kyiv through Belarus is exceptionally difficult due to the extensive swamps of the Pripyat Polesia region and the limited number of road axes.
In parallel, he stated that the Ukrainian intelligence services do not observe a concentration of Russian forces in Belarus.
More likely attack from Bryansk
According to him, a strike through the Chernobyl zone is equally unlikely, while on the contrary an attack from the Bryansk region toward the Chernihiv region constitutes a very realistic scenario.
According to his information, the Russian General Staff is planning such an operation with the goal of binding the reserves of the Ukrainian armed forces and achieving significant successes on other fronts.
The Russians are preparing 9 new divisions and another 9 brigades
Syrsky added that in the plans of the Russian command is included the formation of nine new divisions and nine new brigades.
According to the Ukrainian estimate, the number of the main axes of advance of the Russian army is reduced from thirteen to seven, with four of them being characterized as particularly important.
The Ukrainian chief presents this development as an indication of relative exhaustion of the Russian forces, however in reality, it looks more like the completion of the phase of prioritizing: the most advantageous directions have been identified and the activity in the rest is restricted.
Answer with all the power
Answering to the ultimatums of Zelensky, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Belarus had stated that, in case of an invasion, Minsk will answer "with the use of its entire potential".
The arsenal of Belarus includes, among others, the "Oreshnik" and "Iskander" systems, which can carry tactical nuclear warheads.
From his side, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Sergey Lavrov, recalled that between Moscow and Minsk an agreement of mutual security guarantees applies and that, if it is needed, Russia will take all the necessary measures for the protection of its ally.
On the opposite side of the front, these statements were taken as an indication that Russia is ready either to use nuclear weapons or to allow Minsk to launch such a strike.
In the second case, Belarus would be transformed into a nuclear proxy of Russia, assuming all the political consequences of such an action.
The Iskanders from Belarus reach all of Ukraine
Syrsky recognizes that theoretically this possibility exists, however he points out that the Ukrainian regime and its Western supporters face this risk already from the start of the war.
In total, he does not believe that neither Moscow nor Minsk will decide to use nuclear weapons, due to the serious political and economic consequences.
What the chief of the Ukrainian armed forces did not mention is that, in case of entry of Belarus into the war, the "Iskander" systems that are deployed on its territory could strike the entire territory of Ukraine.
Today, the range of the Russian operational-tactical missile systems is not sufficient so that they strike Lviv even from the Bryansk region.
The capability of using the Belarusian territory for the launches would fully eliminate this problem.
In addition, Minsk has not provided any security guarantee toward the Ukrainian leadership, a fact that means that targeted strikes could constitute a particularly unpleasant development for the political leadership of Kyiv.
They do not want involvement
Despite the capabilities that the realization of strikes in the Ukrainian rear would open, Russia has minimal interest to involve its ally in the conflict.
The Russian political scientist Ilya Ukhov mentioned characteristically that "all speak about the oil refinery of Mozyr, which increases the supplies of gasoline toward Russia and whose cessation of operation does not look advantageous to us".
"But Belarus is also a quite important hub of mechanical engineering industry.
They maintained a large part of their Soviet mechanical engineering base.
They possess a precision instrument industry, while Minsk was always one of the most important centers of electronics production.
All these enterprises will find themselves in the crosshairs of hostile unmanned aerial vehicles in case Belarus enters the war.
In addition, although the Belarusian economy is subject to sanctions, these are not as strict as the sanctions that have been imposed on Russia, a fact that renders it one of the routes of bypassing the Western restrictive measures" reports the Russian analyst, emphasizing that for this reason, the involvement of Minsk in the conflict is exceptionally disadvantageous for Russia and, despite the fact that the capability exists to answer to the aggressor, both Russia and Belarus itself would prefer that the territory of the republic does not become a field of military operations.
Logistics is everything
In the region of the northern outskirts of Konstantinovka, offensive equipment of the Ukrainian armed forces was struck.
The successful strike against the convoy shows that the Russian forces maintain this specific route under continuous fire and strike directly every located vehicle, writes the channel "Donbass Partisan" on Telegram.
A similar situation is being formed also on the supply axis through Alekseevo-Druzhkovka and Druzhkovka.
In this specific section, a Russian FPV unit acts actively, systematically hindering for the opponent the transportation of ammunition, the evacuation of injured and the realization of rotations of personnel.
In the direction of Dobropillya, during fierce battles, the Russian troops broke definitively the counteroffensive momentum of the Ukrainians, restored control in a series of areas and are advancing further, write the authors of "Donbass Partisan" adding: "The enemy resisted for a long time, counterattacked east of Dobropillya, in the region of Novyi Donbas, but finally not only was driven out from there, but was also forced to retreat within the boundaries of Dobropillya itself".
Fierce battles in Dobropillya
Northeast of Dobropillya, the Russian soldiers advanced in the ravine between Kutuzovka, or Stepy, and Annovka, reached the "Oblachny" platform and are conducting battles for Kutuzovka and the tree lines in the direction of Rubizhne, Zolotyi Kolodiaz and Kucheriv Yar.
Further south, battles are being conducted in the northern part of Bilytske.
West of Bilytske, the Russian assault sections advanced through the tree lines in the direction of Svitloe.
The artillerymen of the 385th Brigade of the Group of Forces "Center" execute missions near Dobropillya.
Secret operation and elimination of the counteroffensive
In the direction of Huliaipole, the Ukrainian armed forces are conducting here for more than two months a series of offensive operations, transferring not only all kinds of units from other sections, but, according to military analysts, even utilizing strategic reserve.
According to the colonel of the Special Operations Forces of the Ukrainian armed forces, Volodymyr Antoniuk, the goal of the continuous attacks of the fighters on the Russian positions is the restoration of the defensive line along the Haichur river: "Significant successes were achieved only in a section near the settlement of Verkhnia Tersa, where the Ukrainian armed forces advanced by several kilometers. The Ukrainian command was calculating on more visible results, especially taking into account the length of the front line in the region of Liubytske.
However, in the settlements of Kosovtsevo, Rizdvianka and Vozdvyzhenka no advance became possible".
According to the estimate of the officer of the Ukrainian army, at that moment "the position of the Russian units in this region remained threateningly dangerous".
However, the situation changed quickly and radically.
The Russian command carried out a secret operation, the details, even the start of which, constituted a great surprise for the Ukrainians: "In response, the Russian command planned and carried out counterattacks on the flanks of the advancing Ukrainian brigades in the regions of the settlements of Lisne and Rivne.
The choice of the moment and the points for the counterattacks proved exceptionally successful".
Under siege blockade
The Ukrainian armed forces had been exhausted by the continuous attacks, which the Russian troops were repelling, while their routes of advance from the nearest points of concentration toward the Russian positions were very extended and passed through sparse tree lines, a fact that rendered them exceptionally vulnerable.
As a result of these simultaneous strikes, the Russian assault sections not only placed under control two strategically important settlements, but caused also a new encirclement of a unit of the 5th Independent Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian armed forces in the region of Vozdvyzhenka.
Noteworthy is that, according to the Ukrainian resource DS, which is connected with the GUR, on June 29, 2026 the front line passes much further east, while the villages Rizdvianka and Vozdvyzhenka are allegedly located deep in the rear of the Ukrainian armed forces.
At the same time, the Ukrainian military recognizes the start of battles already beyond the specific settlements, "drawing" thus on the maps not simply a breach, but a "leap" of 16–17 kilometers within one day.
"In all the reports of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense it is mentioned that the clashes in these settlements continue for several weeks, something that does not match with the map in the neighboring direction, in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
In reality, the picture that the Ukrainian media present deviates radically," confirms Antoniuk.
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