Two parallel but deeply intertwined crises are underway at a European and global level: the internal political tension in Germany and the reshuffling in the global energy market centered on Russia and the Middle East. On one hand, Germany is showing signs of social and political polarization, with the rise of Alternative for Germany (AfD), massive reactions against it, and the debate surrounding the limits of democratic tolerance and political stability. On the other hand, the international energy environment is fluid, where conflicts around critical transit points such as the Strait of Hormuz, conflicting forecasts for future oil demand, and shifting trade flows are redefining Russia's role in the global market. Political tensions in the West and energy reshuffling are not isolated phenomena but converge toward a broader shift in power balances. Germany appears as a field of internal contestation of its political elite, while Russia is the factor that, despite international pressures, maintains and strengthens its role in global energy flows. The overall narrative concludes that geopolitical and energy developments are shaping an environment of uncertainty, where traditional forecasts and strategies seem to be heavily tested.
Germany searches for a way to defeat "Putin's puppets"
Germany was eliminated from the World Cup... the four-time Cup winner (last victory in 2014) was eliminated early in the last three consecutive tournaments. And for many Germans, this seems like more than just a mere sporting failure, but a symbol of a worsening crisis. Thus, when Chancellor Merz tried to support the team by stating "we are proud of you," the response was widespread indignation: no, we are not proud of such a disgrace! And neither in football nor in politics.
The culture of the Germans
Inefficiency is a terrible insult for Germans, and they apply this diagnosis both to the national team and to the government. But while the national team plays football, the government deals with the economy and geopolitics — and the stakes are much higher there than on a green pitch. Germany does not have an alternative national football team, but it does have an alternative political force. The problem is that it is not only being blocked from gaining power by every possible means, but it is also being intimidated, and there are plans to ban it. Yes, we are talking about Alternative for Germany (AfD), which will hold its conference in Erfurt on Saturday. And on the eve of the conference, it was reported that the police and security services "fear attacks on party politicians from rooftops." Is that not a hint?
Outrageous scenarios
Of course, it does not state that Alice Weidel, leader of the AfD and candidate for chancellor, will be killed, but it is certainly not without reason. Stopping the AfD peacefully is impossible: its approval ratings are already reaching 30%, while Merz's CDU has dropped to 22-24%. The trend is clear, and that is why the debate about banning the party as extremist has returned. The alternative right movement is presented as a "threat to democracy," although it is not them causing the unrest, but their opponents — the true left-wing extremists.
"Importing" rioters
They will attempt to disrupt the AfD conference in Erfurt, and their numbers will exceed the representatives of the alternative right by twofold: 50,000 protesters are expected, including "2,500 who are prepared for violence." Furthermore, the Antifa will not only come from all over Germany: there will be groups from France, Italy, and Switzerland. The radical leftists themselves are already calling Saturday "Day X" — "the largest mobilization in the history of anti-fascist movements." They have experience in organizing mass riots, so the police are right to be worried. Moreover, there have been past assassination attempts against politicians of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party — and the more popular the party becomes, the greater the danger is for Weidel, for example.
"Between the hammer and the anvil"
In addition, the conference will take place in Thuringia, where the popularity ratings of the AfD already exceed 40%. This means the party is gathering in a region where its support is growing (two years ago, it won the local state elections with 30%), but even there, it is not left alone. Fifty thousand protests aim to create the impression that Germans are against Alternative for Germany (AfD), whereas in reality, the opposite is true. This is particularly true in eastern Germany: elections will be held in September in the states of Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where the AfD is expected to win with a result approaching 40%. It is clear that they are not going to allow it to assume power in either state, but with such numbers, this becomes increasingly difficult. Furthermore, it was recently announced that the first German party is ready to abandon the boycott of the AfD, the so-called firewall used by the elite to block alternative parties from winning power.
Hangerson-on
The newest of the federal parties, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, failed to enter the Bundestag in the last elections, as it fell just below the 5% threshold, but its support is higher in the eastern states. It could win seats in both state parliaments in the September elections and is already proposing televised debates with the AfD. Weidel rejected the offer, stating that Sahra Wagenknecht's party must first enter the local parliaments and only then can a dialogue begin between them. It is clear that the AfD does not want to split its electorate: although the AfD is characterized as far-right and the BSW as left, in reality they have quite a lot in common, particularly in their stance toward illegal migration. The most important thing is that both forces are anti-systemic and anti-elite, and Alice and Sahra are charismatic, independent leaders. Therefore, it is not so much a merger of the far-right and the far-left, as it is a coordination of actions between two non-systemic political forces seeking a radical change in power and policy. And in this sense, they are doomed to cooperate — after all, if the two parties collectively win half the seats in the local parliaments in the September elections, it will be simply impossible to block them.
Panic among the elites
All these trends are making the German elite very nervous. Merz recently stated that the September elections "determine the direction Germany must follow." But are the federal elections not for another three years? Yes, but the trend is already clear. Not to mention that the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition will be very difficult to maintain, not only until 2029, but also after next year. Things are very unstable there, while Alice Weidel is gaining ground and expressing confidence that she will inevitably become chancellor. And under her government (or her ally's), Germany will no longer pay Ukraine.
Volte-face
On the contrary, as Weidel recently stated, Ukraine should pay compensation to Germany for the disruption of Nord Stream and the loss of cheap energy supplies. Because "cheap energy from Russia" was the secret behind the success of "Made in Germany": "We must reclaim it. The loss of this energy set us back years. Hundreds of thousands of jobs were lost. It made us dependent on the US, which sells us energy at much higher prices." And this comes from Weidel, who is not considered a member of the Russophile wing of the AfD, but rather of the pro-American, pro-Atlantic wing. The fact is that the AfD remains the last realist in German politics. And this is precisely why they not only talk about what is in Germany's interest (something Germans want to hear), but also categorically oppose Ukraine's accession to the EU. Obviously, this will not happen, but Moscow will remember which German party was the only consistent opponent of the "abduction of Ukraine" and which party actively exploited the idea that "Ukraine is Europe." The current German elites may call the alternative forces "Putin's puppets" and "traitors to the fatherland," but over time it will become clear that it is only thanks to their stance that the possibility of restoring relations between the two countries has been preserved.
Russia was warned... but did not listen
Beyond Germany, however, in recent days, the Western public has had a brief respite and a reason for calm that is largely linked to Russia. The US Secretary of Energy stated that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have been fully restored to pre-conflict levels. The BBC confirmed it with joy: "Oil prices have dropped to levels we haven't seen since the Iran war." Indeed, Brent prices at one point fell to 73 dollars a barrel — and the Western media began spreading a very pleasing slogan: "The reopening of Hormuz eliminated the war premium from the price of oil." So, the party continues!
Energy crisis?
It is clear that now all prices will collapse, all problems will disappear, and Russia will be left without additional oil revenues and will return forever to the state of a rusty gas station for vintage lovers. It is true that for complete happiness some kind of evidentiary base is needed, but problems arose with that. The fact is that several forecasts for oil demand during the period leading up to 2040-2050 were published almost simultaneously — and these forecasts, to put it mildly, do not conflict with each other at all. On one hand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) significantly reduced its forecasts for oil consumption for the current year and stated that in 2027 the market will be in a truly unrealistic oversupply, with so much oil expected to be sold at a higher price. And after that, we will see. A similar position is reflected in Bloomberg NEF's forecast, according to which, in the long term, oil demand will decrease by 2040, mainly due to cars and aviation, which will be powered only by electricity and television. At the same time, OPEC's forecast for oil demand shows that a "sustained increase in global demand to 124 million barrels per day with no signs of peaking" is expected by 2050 — meaning, only the stars are higher. Among the main drivers, however, are the same cars and planes.
Who is right
Ultimately, the question remains... is Russia the hare or the hunter. To answer this, we must make a firm decision to turn our eyes away from today's news and focus on the eternal — long-term macroeconomic trends. As is well known, oil demand is a derivative of global energy consumption, which, for some reason, is completely unrelated to the optimistic statements coming from Washington. For instance, McKinsey's estimates show that global energy demand will at least double by 2050, and most likely triple, with this growth driven mainly by demand in developing countries. At the same time, it is becoming clear that the volatile situation in the Strait of Hormuz has permanently redrawn the global energy map and the strategies of the main consumers of oil and petroleum products.
Which forecasts?
A fine example showing the fragility of forecasts about "cheap oil forever" and the "end of the crisis": on June 17, following Trump's statement that "the war with Iran could resume if he is dissatisfied," oil prices immediately rose by one percent. On June 29, prices rose by another percent following reciprocal strikes between Iran and the United States; and the day before yesterday, Israel warned of a "possible resumption of the war with Iran within 48 hours," causing turmoil and a rise in prices once again.
The status of Hormuz
There will never again be a guarantee for the security of Hormuz, nor will its oil stockpile be predictable. This is precisely why expert forecasts are now being verified: oil consumers are no longer looking at immediate prices but at reliable supplies. Thus, both fuel economy and logistics are undergoing fundamental changes. According to the Russian Center for Strategic Analysis and Technologies for Fuel and Energy Development, in the near future, everything will be decided in the Asia-Pacific Region (APR), which accounted for more than 58% of global crude oil imports in 2025 and which constitutes the main driver of global oil consumption since 2023, accounting for more than 80% of total global growth. Thus, according to Russian experts, "even if the Strait of Hormuz opens fully, some of the new trade routes created during the crisis will remain as a strategic alternative" and "Russian raw materials will continue to play a key role in diversifying supplies for the countries of the Asia-Pacific Region as a whole," as stable supplies from Russia "make it possible to plan economic growth for the coming decades."
Shifting routes
According to Bloomberg, in June, Russia's oil exports, now oriented toward the Global South, reached their highest level since the beginning of the year, while oil supplies to Russia's Asian customers rose to 3.73 million barrels per day — a new high since 2022. Last month, Russia's oil export revenues in May amounted to nearly 21 billion dollars, which is 8.18 billion dollars higher than in May of last year. It is therefore not surprising that presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov noted that "the situation in global energy markets is extremely volatile," but "the stability of the Russian economy is secured, despite the (temporary) drop in global oil prices." The conclusion is simple: the cheap oil train from Romaskovo has left forever. Russia has always been criticized for the fact that its oil was disappointing and for the shame it felt over the commodities trade when all that was left was artificial intelligence. Russia did not listen, and rightly so.
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