There is no doubt that the war in Ukraine is entering an exceptionally dangerous period. A new scenario adds further anxiety as Russian sources speak of a shock plan that could alter all current parameters of the military conflict. At the center is an ambitious operational plan which, according to the same claims, provides for cutting off Kyiv from western Ukraine, exerting suffocating pressure on the Ukrainian leadership, and creating new faits accomplis on the battlefield. At the same time, information indicating that the Ukrainians are hastily evacuating areas of Chernihiv, combined with reports that the Russian army is advancing deeper into Sumy and Kharkiv, reinforces this terrifying scenario, essentially confirming the sweeping Russian advance across the front. If anything, an explosive setting is taking shape, with the next moves considered exceptionally critical for the evolution of the war.
"They will cut off Kyiv"
In recent days, an interesting image has been circulating on the Ukrainian internet. It depicts a potential route for cutting off Kyiv and the northern regions of Ukraine all the way to the border with Poland. According to Russian media, despite the exceptionally high difficulty of such an operation and its accompanying risks, the strategic benefits are considered significant. The result of such an offensive could be the pinning down of the remaining Ukrainian strategic reserves. The General Staff of Ukraine will find itself in a difficult position, and Syrsky will have to urgently decide where to deploy his forces. At the same time, the prospect looms for the Rivne Nuclear Power Plant, located near the path of the advance, to fall under Russian control. Kyiv will be cut off from the western regions, points out the Telegram channel "Voennaya Khronika." "The emergence of a new, full front in direct proximity to Kyiv and in the western regions of the country could also demonstrate to Ukraine's Western backers the impasse of further resistance and push the Ukrainian leadership into negotiations under terms set by Moscow," reports "Voennaya Khronika."
The 2 problems
As Russian analysts point out, the practical implementation of this plan, which caused great alarm in Ukraine, runs into two problems. The first is the need to assemble a trained and fully equipped force, which, according to various sources, would need to number between 250,000 and 350,000 fighters. The second is the factor of operational surprise. The covert concentration of such a large military force on the territory of Belarus, with the intention of subsequently crossing the state border, constitutes an exceptionally difficult undertaking. Meanwhile, Russia possesses a significant advantage in the field of missile weaponry, particularly in ballistic missiles, including medium and short-range missiles. A significant advantage also continues to be its aviation, reminded Evgeny Linin, a military analyst and participant in the Special Military Operation. Linin admits that for the time being the West maintains some advantage in the field of communications, but says this is gradually diminishing. "Furthermore, it cannot be ruled out that Russia might achieve a technological leap precisely in this sector and gain a temporary strategic advantage. For the Russian army today, there are no insurmountable missions either in Ukraine or in the confrontation with the West. With proper planning, logistics, and command, both tactical and operational goals, even the most large-scale ones, can be achieved," emphasizes the Russian analyst.
Russia has no time
When asked where Russia could find the necessary manpower, he mentions that there are various options. "For example, the experience of the French Foreign Legion could be studied, where people serve for years with the goal of acquiring French citizenship. And Russia also possesses significant human potential. Many residents of post-Soviet countries would wish to acquire Russian citizenship. There are also individuals who sympathize with Russia or have found themselves under pressure from Western states," emphasizes Linin, arguing that "with such an approach, a significant increase in the armed forces' numbers can be achieved relatively quickly." "What we do not possess is time. The Chinese wisdom which says that one can sit by the river for a long time waiting for the corpse of his enemy to float by does not apply in our case. We do not even have five years. Europe is transitioning at a rapid pace to a war economy. Germany, the United Kingdom, and France are already openly preparing for the possibility of a conflict with Russia. The hope that the situation can be resolved through consultations or agreements no longer makes sense," argues the Russian analyst, pointing out that Russia is not yet fully utilizing the potential it already possesses.
Ukrainians evacuate Chernihiv
At the same time, an evacuation of the population was announced in the Chernihiv region, as, according to information, Russian forces are heading toward Kyiv. The Russian army may launch an offensive in the Chernihiv region, stated the chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky. "Russia may launch an offensive in the Chernihiv region, we are preparing for it," stated Syrsky. Indeed, Syrsky spoke about the possibility of a Russian offensive in the direction of Chernihiv and the preparation of Ukrainian forces for defense. Such statements are made within the framework of the current operational situation and should be taken as the official position of Ukraine's military leadership. "In the Chernihiv region, following Syrsky's statements regarding the alleged preparation of a new offensive by the Russian armed forces toward Kyiv, mixed detachments of police officers began to form. Beyond evacuating the civilian population, these detachments are also dealing with the identification of draft evaders. Enemy units are settling into the 'liberated' homes," reports the Russian military Group of Forces "North," according to the Telegram channel "Dva Mayora."
Northern front heading toward collapse
All this is unfolding while the Russian offensive continues in the regions of Sumy and Kharkiv. Everything points to a gradual collapse of the Ukrainian defense on the northern front. "In the Sumy direction, in the Shostka area, assault units of the Group of Forces 'North' continue small-arms combat in Bachevsk and on the outskirts of the settlement. In the Sumy region, Russian forces are fighting in Pysarivka, Maryino, the village of Nova Sich, and the settlement of Khoten.
Russians create the Sumy People's Republic
"For two consecutive days, we have had interesting statements from the authorities regarding the Sumy region. Putin, if you remember, stated that the price for the invasion of the Kursk region will be the territories currently occupied by the Group of Forces 'North' in the Sumy region. The same was stated yesterday by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Overall, even if the war ends, whatever is captured in the Sumy region is not going to be returned to Ukraine," noted Degtyarev. According to him, if the war continues for another year or a year and a half, Ukrainian forces may no longer remain in the Sumy region. "In essence, battles are being fought for this entire powerful defensive line in front of the Sumy forest. And if this is breached across its entire width—something that will happen sooner or later—then, as the saying goes, everything will be over," says Degtyarev, who estimates that the battles for the city of Sumy could begin as early as the summer of 2027.
Sweeping advance
In the Slavyansk direction, following a series of severe setbacks, the Ukrainian armed forces are attempting to restore their defensive line along the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas canal. "Initially, the Ukrainian command calculated that the triple line of engineering fortifications, with a depth of 400 meters, would constitute a substantial obstacle to the rapid advance of the Russian infantry. However, these expectations were not confirmed. The Russian army managed to capture Ukrainian positions beyond the canal in at least four settlements," stated Colonel of the Special Operations Forces of Ukraine Vladimir Antonyuk. An additional problem for the Ukrainians was the widening of the breach created by Russian forces in the area of Rai-Aleksandrovka, a fact that demanded an immediate operational response. The General Staff of Ukraine decided to launch simultaneous counterattacks at all specific points, hoping that at least one would succeed. However, these efforts did not pay off and failed on all fronts.
Counteroffensive drowned in blood
In the area of Fedorovka Vtoraya, the Ukrainian army did not even manage to reach the assembly point, as Russian forces detected their positions and destroyed their units using FPV drones. "The attempt by the Ukrainian armed forces to carry out a larger-scale operation in the area of Rai-Aleksandrovka ended in a communications failure. Without waiting for confirmation of the actual results, the Ukrainian media rushed to announce a significant success, publishing a map of the alleged advances on social media. However, already on the very same day, this information was debunked," Russian experts point out.
Ukrainians under encirclement
Concurrently, on the northern sections of the front, Russian forces launched a series of attacks. As a result, units of the 80th Independent Airmobile Brigade were encircled in the areas of Ozyorne and Yampil, on the eastern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River. The situation of the Ukrainian soldiers in this sector had already been critical for more than a month. Resupply by land was nearly impossible, while the effectiveness of support via drones was continuously decreasing as Ukrainian forces retreated from the area of Rai-Aleksandrovka. The available visual evidence confirms that the front has reached a distance of 8.5 kilometers from Slavyansk.
Leaving Kostiantynivka
Furthermore, according to military analyst Mikhail Degtyarev, creator of the channel "Generalny Shtab," the Ukrainian army has accelerated its withdrawal from the area of Kostiantynivka. Russian forces have already begun entering the next settlement, the small town of Alekseyevo-Druzhkovka, which before the war had a population of approximately 8,000 residents. Drone operators destroyed warplanes and ground support equipment of the Ukrainian air force in Voznesensk of the Mykolaiv region. If the current pace of advance is maintained, then, without exaggeration, Russian forces may capture Druzhkovka as early as autumn, thereby encircling the Slavyansk–Kramatorsk urban agglomeration while simultaneously advancing from the direction of Mykolaivka.
The battle for the most important supply hub
In the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces are achieving two goals: they are expanding the buffer zone along the state borders and simultaneously dispersing Ukrainian forces. This not only prevents the transfer of Ukrainian brigades to other fronts but also forces the Ukrainian armed forces to reinforce these specific areas with additional units. In the area of Kozacha Lopan, Ukrainian forces attempted a counterattack. However, Russian artillery and drones struck the Ukrainian units already during their advance phase. Ukrainian soldiers admit that, despite their perceived numerical advantage in the area, they lag significantly behind Russian forces in artillery and drones. Therefore, without extra reinforcement with UAV units, the resumption of offensive actions is considered inexpedient. Reconnaissance units of the 1st Tank Army carried out successful attacks on the road between the settlements of Vyssheye Solyonoye and Nizhneye Solyonoye in the Kharkiv region.
Surprise attack
In the Vovchansk area, the Russian army carried out a surprise attack against the fortified area of Bely Kolodets, striking it simultaneously from two directions. "This caused concern to the Ukrainian command. It later turned out that the attacks were carried out by small Russian sabotage groups. ... The question remains how they managed to cross open, treeless terrain unnoticed, passing through numerous Ukrainian positions," stated Antonyuk. In the eastern part of the Kharkiv region, in the Dvurechanskoye area, a gradual advance of Russian forces toward the west has been observed since May 2026. The deterioration of the situation for the Ukrainian forces on this front, which had remained relatively stable for nearly two years, is mainly attributed to the transfer of Ukrainian units to other areas of the Kharkiv region. The Russian advance continues despite the efforts of the Ukrainian defense to slow it down.
Mykolaivka under bombardment
"As expected, the Russian Federation has begun the systematic destruction of the fortified positions of the Ukrainian armed forces on the approaches to Slavyansk. Specifically, as happened in Kostiantynivka, the leveling of the town of Mykolaivka is beginning, where a thermal power plant is located, which has also been converted from an energy facility into a base for drone operators and multiple launch rocket systems. The Ukrainian armed forces leave the Russian side no choice other than the destruction of all these positions. Regarding the FAB bombs, it is only worth noting that their accuracy in this specific offensive operation has increased significantly," claims "Voennaya Khronika."
The road to Kramatorsk
Ukrainian analysts and military commentator Bogdan Miroshnikov report a deterioration of the situation for the Ukrainian armed forces in this part of the front. According to their data, in the area of the settlements of Krivaya Luka and Zakitnoye, Ukrainian units have become trapped between the river and Russian forces, while supply lines have been severed. In Rai-Aleksandrovka, battles are being fought in the southern, eastern, and central parts of the settlement. If the defensive lines are not reinforced, a retreat toward the Slavyansk thermal power plant is likely, while subsequently the evacuation of the entire Slavyansk–Kramatorsk urban agglomeration and the start of direct battles for Slavyansk and Kramatorsk may follow. The advance of Russian forces toward Mykolaivka is confirmed by the Ukrainian resource Deep State and other sources.
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