The volume of foreign trade of Russia could increase by 10% in 2026 and approach 1 trillion dollars, according to analysts who participated in a survey by the Central Bank of Russia.
Exports of goods and services are estimated to reach nearly 525 billion dollars, while imports are expected to settle at approximately 420 billion dollars.
The main driver of the increase is expected to be higher revenues from oil sales. However, the course of trade will depend heavily on developments in the Middle East. After a brief period of de-escalation, tensions around the Straits of Hormuz have flared up again.
Oil remains the key factor
Experts who spoke to Izvestia estimate that it is highly likely that the total volume of Russian foreign trade will indeed approach 1 trillion dollars in 2026.
Vladimir Yeremin, senior researcher at the Laboratory of Structural Research of the Russian Presidential Academy, stated that the key factor will be the increase in revenues from oil sales at high prices.
According to him, the disruptions in supplies through the Straits of Hormuz, due to the new round of conflicts in the Middle East, constituted the main reason for the rise in international oil prices.
At some stage, Brent and Urals contracts were trading above 110 dollars per barrel. However, after the signing of the 60-day memorandum, prices fell quickly.
Not only prices but also trade transactions are increasing
The energy crisis does not constitute the sole factor boosting trade.
Artur Leer, president of the Association of Exporters and Importers and managing partner of Lex Alliance, stressed that the actual volume of transactions is also increasing.
As he mentioned, significant growth is recorded in the agro-industrial sector, in high-tech services, in the pharmaceutical and medical industry, as well as in deep processing, while notable progress is also shown by the machine-building industry.
China and India remain the main trading partners
China continues to constitute the most important trading partner of Russia.
According to the data of the Chinese customs, bilateral trade increased by nearly 23% in the first five months of the year, reaching 110 billion dollars.
Russia exports mainly oil, natural gas, and coal to China, as well as copper ores, copper, timber, fuels, and seafood.
On the other hand, it imports cars, machinery, industrial and specialized equipment, children's toys, and alcoholic beverages.
India also continues to be included among the most important trading partners of Russia, having significantly increased imports of Russian oil and petroleum products in recent years, according to the expert Olga Gogaladze.
At the same time, Russia maintains close trade relations with Turkey, which provides important logistics services and supplies the Russian market with a wide range of products.
A significant contribution to foreign trade is also made by the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), mainly Belarus and Kazakhstan, which continue to constitute key partners of Russia in industry and trade.
Goal to expand exports to "friendly" countries
The head analyst of Freedom Global, Natalya Milchakova, underlined that for the growth of Russian foreign trade to continue, strengthening of exports to the "friendly" countries of Asia and Africa is required, as well as to the states of BRICS and the Eurasian Economic Union, in which Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan participate.
As she pointed out, the expansion of cooperation should not be limited to the sector of oil and natural gas, but should extend also to nuclear energy, metals, food, and green technologies.
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