It is obvious that something has changed dramatically in the rhetoric of Moscow toward Ukraine and the West over the last 24 hours. The President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, after issuing an order for the destruction of the Kiev regime—for the first time since the start of the special military operation in Ukraine—responded to statements by European leaders regarding the successes of Ukrainian soldiers on the battlefield by inviting them, with evident irony, to simply show patience and wait for... Kiev's victory. At the same time, Putin referred to 5,000 trapped Ukrainians on the left bank of the Oskil River, signaling that very soon, this entire military force will be completely neutralized. If nothing else, Russia is sending a clear message that it will harden its strategy in the coming period, as on one hand, its forces are recording significant gains on the front, and on the other, it is preparing to tighten the noose on Kiev, as reports from Russian media indicate that a decision has been made to proceed with the plan to block Ukrainian ports.
Shock with 5,000 encircled Ukrainians
Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke of the encirclement of 5,000 Ukrainian soldiers, who are expected to be completely neutralized. According to Russian media, Putin stated that on the left bank of the Oskil River, the Russian Armed Forces have blocked a heterogeneous Ukrainian force. Vladimir Putin added that from the north, the 1st Armored Army of the Russian armed forces is advancing, exerting pressure on the opponent, while from the east, the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division is operating, and from the south, the 144th Motorized Rifle Division. "Until full encirclement, the entire area is already under complete fire control, but about two kilometers remain for the final completion of the encirclement. The 144th Division is the one that has undertaken the execution of this mission," the Russian President emphasized, expressing certainty that this specific Ukrainian force will be neutralized.
"Breaking" hard defensive lines
In addition, Russian military forces have approached the settlement of Dobropillia. It is reported that Russian troops broke through a well-prepared, triple line of mechanical fortifications of the Ukrainian armed forces, which was considered impregnable. It is also reported that Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups, even when they manage to infiltrate areas controlled by Russia, are quickly neutralized.
Putin: Europeans, keep waiting
Commenting on the statements of European politicians that the Ukrainian armed forces are achieving successes on the front, Vladimir Putin invited Europe to wait for Kiev's victory: "If Ukraine is constantly capturing new territories (...), then Western leaders have nothing to do but wait, and the goal of the strategic defeat of Russia will be achieved, supposedly, by itself. Let them wait, then," the Russian President declared ironically.
Hard blows
In the early hours of Monday, June 29, the Russian army launched strikes against Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Russian missiles and drones destroyed fuel and lubricant tanks at the facilities of the Agron enterprise in the Kirovohrad region, as well as a BRSM-Nafta gas station in the area of Pidhorodne in the Dnipropetrovsk region and two Marshal gas stations in the settlement of Berestyn in the Kharkiv region.
Zelensky approved a 40-day SBU operation with 3 goals
On June 25, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, approved a 40-day SBU operation against Russia. According to him, this operation aims at the "interruption" of the armed conflict. Retired Colonel Anatoly Matviychuk revealed three main goals that, in his estimation, the SBU seeks to achieve within this time frame. First, he believes the SBU seeks to isolate Crimea. Then, Ukrainian units will attempt to cause irreparable damage to Russia's energy system. Finally, according to Matviychuk, Kiev seeks to strike the Russian early warning, reconnaissance, and air security system.
Did the Russians start blocking Ukrainian ports?
Ukraine is protesting that Russia struck the cargo ship VICTRESS in the Black Sea with a drone. It belonged to a Turkish shipowner and was sailing under the Panama flag. Could it finally be understood that without blocking the ports of Odessa and Mykolaiv, victory cannot be achieved, wonder Russian analysts, who pose the question: "Have half-measures finally been abandoned?" The "Legitimny" channel on Telegram writes that Moscow made an important decision on "closing" Ukrainian ports, striking any ship heading to the ports of the Black Sea, Odessa, as well as the "Yuzhny" port. At the same time, strikes against the port of Reni are expected to intensify soon: "It seems that the Kremlin has abandoned half-measures, when many objects were not touched based on informal agreements. However, as usual, it was Kiev that first permanently violated all backdoor agreements. Ukraine must urgently redirect grain exports via rail and road transport. The country will lose up to 35% of the foreign exchange earnings of the state budget," the channel reports.
"Prepare for the worst"
The Ukrainian presidency has long followed the strategy of a kamikaze state, which is why Zelensky was prepared for this scenario. However, the Ukrainians were never informed that they should prepare for the worst consequences and a fight for survival, as Zelensky is betting everything and constantly raising the stakes. "Prepare for the worst," the editors of "Legitimny" tell the Ukrainians. In the meantime, the entire financial and economic model that operates today in Ukraine is essentially based on Western capital. The main budget expenditures are already covered by EU funds and other Western sources.
It's time for them to be destroyed
Therefore, according to Russian military analyst Evgeny Linin, there is no particular point in talking about an economic result in this case. "It is about military and transport logistics. In the ports of the Odessa, Mykolaiv, and Kherson regions, military equipment, fuel, and lubricants, as well as ammunition, arrive from the West. The same cargo ships that are officially considered grain transport vessels can initially be used for the transport of military material. After they unload, so as not to return empty, they are then loaded with grain or other products. That is how this system works," the analyst points out, stressing that land transport routes, such as bridges, river crossings, etc., are equally highly vulnerable. "Anything arriving from the West is a resource for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Therefore, it is time for it to be destroyed. The same applies to strikes against energy infrastructure. They must not stop. At the same time, everything related to transport and cargo handling must be put out of operation. This will disrupt supply chains that have been built for years and which the Ukrainian armed forces are using today for the replenishment of ammunition, the supply of equipment, and the covering of their transport needs," Linin emphasized.
Closing the ports is not enough
As Linin says, it is not enough to just close the ports. "If such a goal is set, then the entire logistics system must be completely destroyed. Russia has sufficient means. The same Geran drones, which have been used for several years, have proven the effectiveness of this tactic. When massive strikes are launched against a specific part of the infrastructure, the consequences are particularly severe. Furthermore, for the time being, there is still superiority in ballistic strike means," Linin argued, stating that of the elements that still noticeably differentiate Russia from Ukraine, the air component mainly remains. "If this advantage is also neutralized—for example, through better protection of airports or the use of foreign infrastructure—then additional problems may be created in the future. Fortunately, Ukraine's own position is deteriorating. In reality, this is one of the most difficult periods throughout the entire SVO. The successes that Ukraine presents today have a mainly tactical character and do not essentially affect the strategic situation," the Russian analyst underlined, stressing that the main problem of the Ukrainian armed forces is the lack of resources, not so much ammunition as manpower.
Failure of Ukrainian commanders
In the direction of Lyman, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue their efforts to cut off the Sviatohirsk salient, attacking across its entire width with the goal of isolating the bridgehead and encircling Russian forces. Interestingly, unlike other parts of the front in 2026, Ukrainian attacks are carried out with both infantry and the use of armored vehicles. This is quite unusual, noted Colonel of the Special Operations Forces of Ukraine, Vladimir Antonyuk.
Why is this happening?
First, in these areas, there are extensive open expanses, and Ukrainian forces are forced to combine secret infiltration with rapid attacks using armored personnel carriers. However, attempts to cross open ground with armor almost always lead to heavy losses for Ukrainian soldiers. Second, according to Antonyuk, this shows that the Ukrainian General Staff is essentially pushing the soldiers for faster results, indifferent to the massive losses. At the same time, even the announced—and unconfirmed—successes proved extremely limited. Thus, the Ukrainian side announced only the capture of the settlements of Redkodub and Karpivka, after several weeks of continuous "meat attacks." However, there is no talk of either consolidation of positions or a significant concentration of Ukrainian forces in the area. That is, it is essentially an expansion of the "gray zone" in a relatively small part of the front, at a huge cost for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Massive losses
Attempts to bypass the Russian defense and advance toward Katerynivka failed completely, causing heavy losses without any progress. And this even while only half the distance has been covered to the main target, the intersection of roads near the village of Zelena Dolyna. One of the main goals of the Ukrainian attack was the settlement of Shandryholove. Success in this sector, based on the current front line, would allow the cutting off of Russian units located west of the Nitrius River. However, despite the significant reinforcement of the attacking Ukrainian force, which included the 115th Independent Mechanized Brigade and drone battalions transferred from neighboring sectors, it was not possible to capture the fortified position, and the opponent retreated with losses.
Last chance
One of the possible reasons that prevented the achievement of the goals was the inability of Ukrainian forces to carry out supporting attacks from south to north, from the areas of Drobysheve and Stavky. There, Ukrainian units were forced to focus mainly on maintaining their already occupied positions and not on reinforcing the attack. The Ukrainian General Staff attaches critical importance to this attack, considering it the last chance to maintain the defense on the eastern bank of the Oskil and Siverskyi Donets rivers, Antonyuk estimates.
No alternative
At the same time, the Ukrainian military leadership sees no alternative. Stopping these attacks would mean the loss of the last parts of the Borova bridgehead, the replenishment of which depends on the operation of the single crossing at Chervonyi Oskil. Correspondingly, the Ukrainian bridgehead in the area of Lyman also depends on a single crossing in the village of Maiaky. Considering that the Russian army is soon expected to capture the dominant heights near Sloviansk, in the area of Mykolaivka, the operation of these crossings will become impossible.
The front's biggest secret revealed
In the direction of Dnipropetrovsk, the Ukrainians have continued since February to exert constant pressure on Russian positions, trying at all costs to intercept the Russian advance and recapture lost positions. For this purpose, even the best-trained brigades are being used. The Ukrainian General Staff has set the goal of reaching the state borders of Russia and entering the Donetsk People's Republic by the end of the summer of 2026, which seems extremely difficult, given the almost complete absence of substantial successes over the last six months, despite the concentration of six new brigades.
Where the Ukrainians are succeeding
The Ukrainians have deployed Airborne Assault Brigades with experience in combat operations. The basic tactic consists of the infiltration of groups of two to three soldiers to a depth of 5–10 kilometers, followed by surprise attacks on trenches and conducting aerial reconnaissance with drones. According to objective control data, the only point where the Ukrainians manage to infiltrate with small groups is toward the directions of Piddubne and Myrne. On the approaches to these settlements, a significant number of Ukrainian soldiers are neutralized by operators of Russian drones. A main goal of the Ukrainians is the large logistics hub in Komar. Conversely, Russian successes in this specific sector are confirmed both by objective control data and by reports of frontline soldiers. The objective data from the specific directions do not confirm significant advances of the Ukrainian forces. [...] It is important to understand that the Ukrainian General Staff is deploying its best offensive brigades in these attacks, a fact which subsequently creates a shortage of forces during defensive operations and retreats, Antonyuk concluded.
Situation on the front completely different
In the western direction of Zaporizhia, where the Ukrainians, according to their own announcements, reportedly captured Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, and even Plavni, the actual situation proved completely different. As Russian war correspondent Anatoly Radov stated, citing information from frontline soldiers, the situation has remained almost unchanged for a month. Some positions were temporarily lost during the rotation of units, but they are already being recaptured, while attempts to infiltrate toward Plavni continue to be repelled. In the direction of Orikhiv, Russian forces expanded the control zone south of Novoandriivka. In the direction of Kharkiv, the situation is even more interesting—there, in a sense, no one knows for sure exactly where the Russian forces are advancing.
The... Soviet maps
Military analyst Mikhail Degtyarev, creator of the channel "General Staff," published a report from Russian soldiers according to which battles for Zemlianyi Yar have begun. And here, an interesting detail emerges: Google maps place Yar near an area southeast of the settlement of Vilcha, about 2.5 kilometers from the hitherto known Russian positions. Conversely, Yandex maps place it near Bilyi Kolodiaz, about 7.5 kilometers away. According to Degtyarev, given that Yandex maps are often based on old Soviet maps—as, according to him, is the Russian military command—the result is particularly impressive. Nevertheless, for the moment, there are no more details, and the question of exactly where the Russian forces are advancing remains open.
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