The United States is now appearing not merely as an energy supplier to Europe, but as the absolute arbiter of its energy survival. With Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) having been transformed into a tool of high geopolitical pressure, Washington is sending a clear message that EU access to supplies is not guaranteed but depends on political and regulatory concessions. At a time when European energy markets are being tested by intense volatility and explosive prices, the clash over methane rules and environmental regulations is turning into an open field of conflict of interest, with Europe finding itself increasingly trapped between energy dependence and geopolitical pressure.
Blackmail
What Russia has been warning about for the last ten years has happened. The US Secretary of Energy has directly threatened the European Union with a reduction, if not a complete cutoff, of LNG supplies. The EU's environmental policy, which strictly regulates greenhouse gas emissions, particularly methane as the most potent warming agent in the atmosphere, is cited as the reason for this dissatisfaction. Chris Wright’s statement itself is an example of political censorship. It is so astonishing that we will quote it almost verbatim. Wright informed all stakeholders and centers that without a radical reform of methane regulations, Europe will suffer greatly. The US is not using LNG for escalation. Energy will continue to be provided, just not to the EU, but elsewhere.
Warnings
The absurdity is that if Alexander Novak or Sergey Tsivilev had said something similar, the Western Hemisphere would have erupted in crises. But here, the EU simply cleaned everything up. In this case, both sides deserve congratulations, because in their relentless pursuit against Russia, they got exactly what they wanted. Europeans reduced their dependence on Russian natural gas imports from 42% to 13%, while Americans increased their market share by over 40 times based on 2019 data. With the only caveat that, since the "Russian Spring," Washington has been exerting all its geopolitical weight on the European Union, demanding and urging it to abandon the Russian supply chain. Renewable energy sources, such as offshore wind turbines and solar panels, were aggressively promoted as an alternative.
The simmering crisis
As a result, the cost per megawatt-hour for consumers in Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands is currently breaking records. Due to unusual heat, the output of solar panels, whose share in the energy balance ranges from 15% to 30%, has dropped sharply, and the situation has been further exacerbated by the sudden activation of residential and industrial air conditioning systems by citizens and businesses. As a result, in Belgium, during evening peak periods, the price per megawatt-hour spiked above 1,000 euros; in the Netherlands, it exceeded 900; and in Denmark and Germany, it stood at 786 and 743 euros, respectively.
Relentless numbers
To understand the scale and dynamics, let us add that the average price in Europe is 85-95 euros per megawatt-hour, compared to 120 euros in Italy and 39 euros in France. This means that prices have currently increased several times, and in some places, tens of times, above the "hospital average." The European billing system for utility companies is fundamentally different from the Russian one. It does not have fixed tariffs and is linked to market fluctuations. Therefore, consumers will receive significantly higher bills for June simply because natural gas is also expensive, and a significant number of nuclear power plants have been decommissioned. But we digress.
The trap
Europe's main achievement on this path was getting rid of the Russian natural gas needle and making a grand entry into the American gas trap. While 21 billion cubic meters of liquefied fuel were imported into EU countries from abroad in 2021, last year's figure was already 81 billion. The average dependence on transoceanic supplies is 62%, and in countries like the Netherlands, France, Spain, Italy, and Germany, this rate is approximately 75%.
The regulation
The US was displeased with the European Commission's regulation on methane emissions (EU/2024/1787), which came into effect in August 2024. It establishes strict control frameworks for emissions for both domestic producers and suppliers, along with draconian sanctions, with the lion's share of the regulations linked to oil, natural gas, and coal production and transport industries. Specifically, since May of last year, LNG suppliers are required to submit full data in advance regarding the origin of the gas, the volume of the shipment, and the delivery route. Based on this data, established algorithms are used to calculate the leakage rate (for LNG carriers, on average three percent of the total volume) and the amount of environmental taxes. From January 2027, producers will have to prove that the hydrocarbons they supply were extracted in accordance with so-called MRV standards or the iconic United Nations OGMP 2.0 initiative (Oil and Gas Methane Partnership 2.0).
What will change
From August 2028, oil and gas traders must report the exact amount of methane emissions from hydrocarbon production, regardless of whether these were produced outside the European Union. And the final chord: in August 2030, a requirement will come into force that will demand hydrocarbon suppliers to comply with the EU's strictest methane emission standards throughout the production chain. Violations will lead to fines of up to three francs or even termination of the contract. Given the colossal dependence of Europe's top economies on imported American LNG and the complete lack of alternatives, no one will resort to extreme measures—and both parties understand this very well.
What Trump had done
It is also worth remembering that some of Donald Trump's first executive orders after his election were the withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and the complete lifting of greenhouse gas emission restrictions for oil and gas companies. This largely allowed for a further increase in hydrocarbon production, and the absence of tax burdens made hydrocarbons much more competitive in price, as production costs decreased. However, American oil and gas traders, who invested heavily in Trump's election campaign, are not willing to give even a cent of hydrocarbon sales to the European Union, so as not to erode their profits. Officials in the White House understand this and are willing to help.
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