Today we will focus on the plans of Aktor and Credia bank, concentrating on what is to come and future developments.
The value of Aktor will reach 4 billion in 12 months from today
Today, Aktor has a share price of 13.4 euros or a total market capitalization of 2.7 billion euros. It will implement a 650 million euro share capital increase and issue a 300 million euro bond, gathering 950 million euros in funds and liquidity. The major shareholders will support the increase, although the appearance of key new investors will contribute to them investing less, compared to their existing percentages. Obviously, the plans are numerous as it focuses on energy and the vertical axis, which has implementation weaknesses but is certainly a strong source of revenue if implemented. The main goal is for the Aktor stock to reach 20 euros or 4 billion euros in market value 12 months from today. In this scenario, the value of the shares held by major shareholders Bakos, Kaymenakis, and Exarchou will amount to almost 2 billion euros, and Exarchou's specifically to 600 million euros from Aktor alone.
National Bank will consider absorbing Credia if it is cheap
However, there will also be developments in the banking sector, as we have analyzed. The National Bank of Greece would consider absorbing Credia bank—following the Eurobank scenario with Hellenic Bank of Cyprus—provided that Credia is cheap. Today, the National Bank has a market value of 13.7 billion and tangible equity of 8.5 billion, so the price-to-book ratio is 1.62. Credia bank has a market value of 2.32 billion and tangible equity of 1.55 billion—after the integration of HSBC Malta—so the price-to-book ratio stands at 1.50. The condition of a cheap Credia bank is already met since the bank is cheaper in P/BV terms compared to the National Bank.
What will happen with the management of the future National Bank?
Pavlos Mylonas wants a new renewal of his term, meaning he wants to reach 2030 in the management of the National Bank. Let us recall that Mylonas, coming from the ND party, took over the National Bank during the SYRIZA government. However, a very interesting issue will arise in the future; the National Bank's committees are already preparing 3 bank executives as the successor state for Mylonas for 2030; and the question is whether the new Chief Executive Officer of the future will be a National Bank executive or Eleni Vrettou, who will come from the absorption of Credia bank by the National Bank? Eleni Vrettou is the CEO of Credia bank. It will certainly be a very interesting battle.
When will the major shareholders exit?
We believe that the major shareholders will exit, meaning they will sell, when they have reached a value of 8 to 10 billion euros for the bank and the construction company. The relations of the major shareholders Bakos, Kaymenakis, and Exarchou are tight and excellent… however, they seek at some point to reap the enormous surplus value they are generating, and this is a great success for Alexandros Exarchou. Credia and Aktor are Exarchou's plan and strategy.
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