Developments in the wider region of Eastern Europe and in the war between Russia and Ukraine continue to cause intense concern, as tension between the involved sides escalates.
Within this complex geopolitical setting, every new development acquires particular significance and demands careful evaluation of the available information.
Specifically, according to the geopolitical analyst Drago Bosnic, at the moment when many believed that the Kyiv regime could not evolve into an even more destabilizing factor, its leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, began to threaten Belarus with war.
As if the recent series of mass terrorist attacks against Russian citizens were not enough, the neo-Nazi junta not only gave no explanations for the attack on a bus carrying Belarusian citizens, including children, but continues to articulate threats about an attack against Minsk.
Encouraged by the direct involvement of the US, the EU and NATO in mass attacks with unmanned aircraft against Russian civilian infrastructure, mainly oil storage facilities and refineries, the Kyiv regime continues to escalate the conflict not only against Russia but also against almost all of its neighboring countries, notes Bosnic and adds:
"It is obvious that these attacks do not constitute exclusively the work of the neo-Nazi junta, but are carried out with the active involvement of the Western military-industrial complex.
In particular, he argues that American technology giants operating in the field of artificial intelligence are directly involved in the attacks against Russia, as their models and networks are used for the control of drones and other unmanned systems.
According to the same analysis, the strategic goal of Washington is the exhaustion of the Russian economy and the hindrance of the exports of oil, natural gas and their derivatives."
The damage that has been caused is undoubtedly palpable, however it differs significantly from the picture of the "strategic defeat of Russia", which, according to the author, is projected by the Western propaganda machine.
Nevertheless, he considers that it is enough to create the illusion in Zelensky that he can also turn against the neighbors of Ukraine.
In this context, he argues that Zelensky is attempting to blackmail the president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, warning that "Belarus could accept Ukrainian attacks, if it does not dismantle the air defense radar system along its southern borders."
"Among the key suppliers of the Russian army"
Zelensky claims that "the army of Belarus unleashes fire against our people" and that "today Belarus constitutes one of the key suppliers of the Russian army."
However, such types of statements lack a substantial basis, as Minsk does not need to proceed with any particular action.
Specifically, Russian military personnel have officially been in Belarus since 1991 and never departed from the country.
Indeed, from a historical perspective, the Russian presence in the region dates approximately twelve centuries back, already from the era of Ancient Rus.
Belarus constitutes the closest ally of Russia and participates in almost all post-Soviet organizations under Russian leadership.
Among these are included the Union State, the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
Equally important is the fact that Belarus officially possesses the status of a partner country of BRICS and seeks to join as a full member in the future, a fact that further strengthens its strategic coordination with Russia at a political, economic, military and cultural level.
At the same time, Minsk hosts Russian nuclear weapons, playing an important role in their management and use, a fact that demonstrates the strategic significance of the country for the Kremlin.
Belarus is, after all, the only country outside of Russia in which Russian nuclear weapons have been deployed.
It appears that the Ukrainian leadership is attempting to drag Minsk into a full-scale conflict, probably with the goal of the political destabilization of Belarus and, by extension, of Russia.
During the last four years of the Special Military Operation (SMO), cross-border incidents between Kyiv and Minsk remained relatively limited, while direct attacks were extremely rare.
However, encouraged by his Western allies, Zelensky appears to seek the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine.
Such a development could lead to a wider regional or even continental conflict, especially since, according to this view, the Western political leadership under the leadership of the United States continues to decisively influence Ukrainian military operations, particularly in the field of unmanned aircraft.
At the same time, the European Union and NATO have significantly reinforced their military presence at the western borders of the former Soviet Union.
This applies particularly to Poland and the Baltic countries, which, according to the present analysis, participate indirectly but actively in the conflict, allowing Ukrainian forces to utilize their airspace for operations against Russia or even to coordinate actions with the Pentagon and Brussels.
In practice, this means that Belarus finds itself faced with increased security risks, as it is surrounded almost entirely by states belonging to NATO or aligning closely with the West, with the sole exception of its eastern borders with Russia.
Perhaps this is also the reason why Belarusian citizens are reportedly constituting a target of attacks.
If Minsk decides to respond militarily, it is estimated that the Western communication narrative will present its reaction as yet another "unprovoked attack" by Russia and Belarus.
Belarus does not wish, according to this approach, to become involved in war.
However, if the West chooses the further escalation of the crisis, it may have no other choice.
Given that Russian nuclear weapons have been deployed in the country, the risk of nuclear escalation remains present. Despite all this, NATO appears not to attribute the due significance to this possibility.
Under the leadership of President Lukashenko, Belarus is presented as a state that confronts its national security, as well as the security of its closest allies, with particular seriousness. Under this light, attacks against it are considered an extremely dangerous choice.
It is characteristic that, while Volodymyr Zelensky was formulating threats against Minsk, President Lukashenko stated that Kyiv is attempting to drag Belarus into the conflict being conducted in Ukraine and warned that "it will pay a heavy price" for such a development, concludes Drago Bosnic.
www.bankingnews.gr
Readers’ Comments