Although Russia and Ukraine may suggest that they are ready for peace negotiations – even though they put forward terms that make the endeavor unlikely – everything indicates that we are probably heading toward a major escalation. In Donbass, the Russian army is "sweeping" Ukrainian positions and approaching the fortress cities of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, which in turn means that an increasing number of Ukrainian soldiers are under stifling siege, facing... certain death. At the same time, due to the ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Crimea and the breach of promises by the Americans, Russia is "breaking" what was agreed upon between Putin and Trump in Alaska last August and is beginning attacks on bridges over the Dnieper and Dniester rivers. And while Russian officials warn that there are no rules anymore, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is reportedly ready to implement a truly nightmarish plan in the coming weeks.
Preparing for war
Russian President Vladimir Putin said it clearly yesterday: Europe is preparing for war with Russia by "inventing" a non-existent Russian threat. Preparation for war with Russia by 2030 is now considered an axiom by many in Germany. Military analysts report that government circles are in favor of accelerating the integration of the Ukrainian defense industry into the European military-industrial complex, as well as utilizing the experience of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to prepare for a war with Russia.
The $80 billion
"80 billion were spent to pay for weapons that the Americans are supplying to Ukraine. Not a single loaf of bread, not a piece of meat, not a liter of water was produced from this money. And that is why, believe me, such an approach to stimulating the economy neither had nor is going to have a future," claims Waldemar Gerdt, a former Bundestag member and president of the executive office of the International Movement of Russophiles, who also speaks of an "alleged threat from the east" to Europe. According to him, the best army in the world is not defined by technology but by spirit. And the spirit of patriotism in Germany, he said, has been destroyed for years: "And I think they will attempt to revive it, perhaps in the form of nationalism. But I would not like to believe that, as I still consider that a healthy way of thinking still prevails among the population."
Dirty plan for Belarus
Now the West has turned its attention to Belarus. Russian military analyst Colonel Andrey Bogodel estimates that the West has tasked Zelensky with dragging a friend and partner of Russia into an armed conflict. Various steps at a "diplomatic level" in this direction have already taken place. At their core is the creation of preconditions for war, with a hint of even breaking diplomatic relations between Moscow and Minsk.
Examining reactions
"The opponent is interested in geopolitical goals. It is about 'cutting off the Belarusian balcony.' This measure primarily concerns the Kaliningrad region and Russia's outlet to Europe. Of course, the loss of such an ally would be an extremely strong blow to Russia. They are watching very carefully how Moscow will react to such a situation," explained Andrey Bogodel. The analyst also pointed out the economic dimension of the issue: "Look, when Macron called Lukashenko, the question was whether you have extra potash fertilizers. That is, there is a mild implication of the type: shall we finally take over your economy?". In any case, both the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, and the Foreign Minister of Russia, Sergey Lavrov, have warned that in the event that Ukraine attacks Belarus, the response will be... nuclear.
Oreshnik in Belarus
At the same time, Belarusian political analyst Yuri Voskresensky stated that the country is reportedly not shooting down Ukrainian drones that pass through its territory. As an argument, he cited 116 border violations within one month. However, there is simultaneously evidence that in 90 cases, Belarus's air defense system was activated to shoot down these drones – it is obvious that it is difficult to "catch" them all. Russian journalist Elena Afonina pointed out: "To avoid ambiguous interpretations and the desire of some to wedge a rift between Russia and Belarus, let's remind you that the 'Oreshnik' is also in Belarus, as well as many other interesting things. The bond between our two countries is such that let someone try to drive a wedge." Here, perhaps, the "red button" will work more effectively.
Unified air defense system
"The most important thing is for everyone to understand, both in Russia and in Belarus, that we have a unified anti-aircraft defense system. This is the most basic thing. There is something else, too. They say that Minsk is watching how Moscow reacts to the current situation. How Russia reacts, Belarus already knows. We are watching how Western countries observe Russia's reaction, so that they can subsequently influence, among others, Belarus. Especially in light of the shifted... 'red lines'," underscored Andrey Bogodel.
"As long as London faces no problems, Moscow will face them"
The military analyst also answered the question occupying the residents of Russia: what exactly is Kyiv, which is losing on the battlefield, betting on when it turns against Belarus? Its resources, after all, are already limited. Is Zelensky hoping for NATO? "When we talk about infrastructure war, for some reason we start talking exclusively only about Ukraine. But, for example, neither in London nor in Paris are there problems with gasoline. And as long as there are no such problems there — with gasoline and with everything else — these problems will exist in Russia. Do you understand? And then, perhaps in time, God forbid, the same thing will happen in Belarus," noted Andrey Bogodel. He underscored that it is necessary to make it absolutely clear with whom and at what level this armed confrontation is being conducted.
Dark development
The analyst added that a "defeat of Russia in the war," assuming such a scenario, would be a dark development for many and everyone should realize it: "Neither Kazakhstan, nor Armenia, much less Belarus will have a good time." "It is no coincidence that today what we see with Zelensky is starting. He is supported by a 'trio' – and it is primarily the Ljubljana Triangle. The United States has lost its interest in the European part. Yes, for them, Russia is a living threat. The only country that can destroy America. But it is a manageable threat. And I am not saying this; the National Defense Strategy of the United States of America says it," said Bogodel.
Zelensky's ultimatum is no bluff
According to him, Trump can very easily transfer this conflict to Europe and let it manage it alone. And all this, today, is guided by London – the main traitor of Russia. "Exactly Albion created all the necessary structures and all the necessary approaches, on which France also relied," the analyst assesses. He re-underscored that it must be understood that the ultimatum Zelensky issued to Belarus is not a bluff – it is a methodical evolution of events. "I believe that preemptive strikes and sabotage, in all likelihood, will begin after July 4. It is necessary to take measures jointly with Russia... in relation to the infrastructure of European countries," the Russian analyst pointed out.
Konstantinovka is ending
During the last 24 hours, OSINT analysts have recorded "modest" numbers for the Russian army's advance. However, first, this is explained by the fact that in some sectors, Russian troops have reached the largest defensive and logistical hubs, and second, the importance of these advances cannot be overstated. The outcome of the battles for Konstantinovka is approaching ever closer. The Russian Armed Forces are advancing at an aggressive pace, while the critical situation of the remnants of the Ukrainian garrison is recognized on the other side of the front as well. Within 24 hours, the Russians advanced 900 meters into the urban fabric toward the northern part of the city, created, and immediately closed a third encirclement (the southern one has already been cleared, while in the central one, operations are still continuing).
Certain death
The Ukrainians have a small "narrow bottleneck" for an exit, but this is rather theoretical. First, because it is only 600 meters wide, which can easily be fired upon even with an AK, and second, because part of it ends in a river, where, under these conditions, attempting to cross is equivalent to certain death. Thus, a passage 100 meters wide remains along the highway, through an open field. Therefore, the exit means in any case certain death.
The siege ring tightens
The Russians, having blocked the Ukrainian forces in the blocks with high-rise apartment buildings and in the industrial zone, are already conducting an assault in the northern part of Konstantinovka. In fact, on both banks of the river. In the western part of the city, battles are taking place in the Novosyolovka area, while in the eastern part, the assault on the Chervony district is underway. As soon as the fighters complete the clearing of the private residential sectors in the north, only the handling of the two encirclements will remain.
There will be no prisoners
"If you think there will be many prisoners – no, there won't be. Now the attitude toward this, let's put it this way, is somewhat different. In reality, now everything is simply being crushed and cleared. A fighter who is here, in Konstantinovka, tells me that the Ukrainian forces want to get out of the encirclements. They want to. But they do not have this possibility, no one allows them to," points out Russian military commentator Mikhail Degtyaryov from the "Генеральный Штаб" channel on Telegram.
Advance in Liman as well
Progress was also noted in the southern part of Liman – the Russians advanced by 350 meters, occupying multi-story urban construction. There, as in Konstantinovka, there is no talk of any organized defense by the Ukrainians; there is only focal resistance from fragmented groups of Ukrainian forces, which do not have supplies, ammunition, and, in some cases, not even UAVs. In the Kurilovka area, in the direction of Kupyansk, the Russians have also formed an encirclement, which is being gradually cleared. However, according to monitoring maps, there is still a large "passage" that allows for the exit of Ukrainian forces.
Rifts in the South as well
From the Southern front, there were reports of rifts caused by the Russian Group of Forces "East," as well as successes of the "Dnepr" group, specifically from the Stepnogorsk and Primorskoye areas – the Ukrainians claimed that they had supposedly completely occupied the settlements, but in reality, as military analysts reported, the Ukrainian forces simply widened the "grey zone," which the Russians are gradually reducing again.
The US is changing... rhetoric
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov delivered an extensive speech on the subject of settling the situation around Ukraine. Among other things, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that the United States is changing rhetoric and demanding an immediate ceasefire from Russia. Trump's statements, which had been made immediately after Anchorage, have now been forgotten: "I do not want to believe that the summit in Alaska was designed to gain time so that Ukraine could rearm. But, in practice, things turned out as they did. Europe not only ignores every possibility of equal negotiations for Ukraine but openly pursues historical revanchism."
Russia "breaks" the secrets of Alaska
Many statements were made, however, it is worth paying attention especially to the Anchorage agreements. The retired Russian Colonel Aslan Nakhushev presented a series of "secret points." There is no official confirmation for these, however, the hypothesis seems quite interesting. Among other things, according to Nakhushev, Russia committed, beyond what is already known, "not to use nuclear weapons, not to strike nuclear power plants, hydroelectric dam stations, bridges over the Dnieper, the Dniester and the Southern Bug, government buildings and high-ranking state officials."
US promises
The United States undertook the obligation "not to supply Kyiv directly and to forbid its allies from the transfer of American strike weapons with a range of over 150 kilometers. To prevent Kyiv from using the 40 remaining ATACMS missiles it possesses, to force it not to use a 'dirty bomb' and poisonous chemical substances, as well as not to carry out attacks on government institutions and not to attempt the assassination of high-ranking officials of Russia": "Taking into account all the political and military-technical changes that have occurred in the last year, it appears that the overwhelming majority of mutual obligations have lost their significance or directly weaken Russia's position. And if the main compromise is not implemented, then everything else loses its meaning," says Nakhushev.
Attacks on bridges
A positive warning sign was the strike on one of the bridges over the Dnieper, as well as the bombardment of bridges over the Dniester, which significantly limits the military potential of the opponent.
There are no rules
Also, as a signal, one can interpret the statement of the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, on June 20: "Taking into account the massive terrorist attacks of the opponent against our cities, the intensity of which is increasing and obviously will continue to increase, it is time to declare openly that there are no longer and cannot be any rules in relation to Kyiv. Only one thing must remain beyond what is acceptable for us: the deliberate extermination of civilians. I underscore: deliberate, that is, intentionally. Everything else is absolutely permissible..." underscored Medvedev. At the same time, the advisor to the President of Russia, Yuri Ushakov, noted: "Russia is not waiting for the implementation of the Anchorage agreements, but for Victory. One of the two sides proved unable to fulfill the agreements reached in Anchorage." "I truly hope that these statements are not just words, but a message to the Americans that the Kremlin now refuses to continue to keep the obligations it undertook in Anchorage, due to the changing conditions and the non-observance by the US of its main promise," pointed out Nakhushev.
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