Oil prices no longer depend on the production and export decisions of the countries participating in the OPEC+ agreement, but on developments in the Straits of Hormuz, Rossiyskaya Gazeta claims.
According to the analysis of the Russian newspaper, since the beginning of March the key factor shaping prices is the situation in the strategic passage of Hormuz, which is mainly influenced by two forces: Iran and the United States. However, Tehran appears to be reacting to developments, while Washington is the one determining the course of the crisis.
The new market control tool
In the assessment of the newspaper, the US has acquired an extremely effective tool to adjust the oil market to its advantage.
When the Straits of Hormuz close, the global oil supply decreases by at least 10%, causing prices to rise.
When they remain open, supply increases and prices fall.
Even statements by officials can affect the market.
According to the publication, Donald Trump has already learned to exploit this capability to the benefit of American interests.
Although the Straits do not directly affect Russia, the Russian budget still depends heavily on international oil prices and on the American sanctions targeting Russian energy exports.
"The US is building a new market management system"
The head of the Russian National Energy Security Fund, Konstantin Simonov, stated to Rossiyskaya Gazeta that the United States is creating a new management system for the global oil market.
According to him, this strategy is not limited only to the Persian Gulf but also extends to the sanctions against Russia.
When American interests are served, sanctions are relaxed. When they are not served, they return.
The ultimate goal, according to Simonov, is American dominance in all global energy markets.
He argued that the rise in oil prices in the spring was necessary to start a new cycle of investments in American oil and gas production.
Now, he added, Washington seeks lower prices so that the pressure on American fuel consumers is reduced.
The weakening of OPEC+
The managing director of DA Consulting, Daniil Tyun, estimates that the US is not attempting to institutionally replace OPEC+, but to shift the center of gravity from the question of "who produces how much" to the question of "who controls, guarantees and facilitates the flow of oil".
According to him, the departure of the United Arab Emirates from OPEC+ on May 1, 2026, combined with the long standing internal disagreements of the organization, weakens the cohesion of the alliance.
However, it does not necessarily lead to its dissolution. Instead, it accelerates the transformation of OPEC+ from a strictly disciplined cartel into a more flexible coordination mechanism, with Saudi Arabia retaining the central role and the remaining members gaining greater autonomy.
Hormuz remains in the hands of Iran
The head of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies for the Development of the Fuel and Energy Sector, Vyacheslav Mishchenko, argues that Iran still plays the leading role in controlling the Straits of Hormuz.
Nevertheless, he emphasizes that the overall situation in the region, combined with the sanctions and the way the US Department of the Treasury manages them, constitutes a real threat to the future of OPEC+.
Mishchenko also argued that several of the moves and statements of Donald Trump regarding the Straits and the oil market are linked to personal financial interests of himself and his close associates.
The next challenge for Russia
According to Daniil Tyun, as long as the Middle East remains unstable, Russian oil benefits from the geopolitical "risk premium" embedded in international prices.
However, if the United States manages to gain greater control over energy routes and at the same time fully restores oil flows from the Middle East to the market, then Russia will find itself faced with more intense competition.
In this case, the geopolitical premium will disappear and the discount at which Russian oil is sold will return as the primary tool for maintaining the exports of the country.
www.bankingnews.gr
Readers’ Comments