US President Donald Trump may have celebrated his 80th birthday with a party at the White House that included martial arts matches—a setting ideal for announcing the agreement with Iran—but the power and dominance the American president and the US wanted to project are likely challenged by the content of the memorandum. This is a memorandum of understanding that promises to end a war that shook the Middle East, sent energy prices soaring, and tested the limits of American power more intensely than ever before.
It is obvious that the US did not achieve the knockout it desired. Conversely, Iran not only endured but emerged stronger, to the point where it is now considered a global power. It is characteristic that regarding the Iranian nuclear issue—the "hottest" topic and primary cause of the war—Trump himself reportedly argues that Tehran will be able to enrich uranium at low levels, which implies yet another major retreat by the American president, who appears to have accepted that even enriched uranium will not leave Iranian territory. All this comes at a time when the memorandum provides for Iranians to receive $300 billion for the country's reconstruction, while Tehran declares that it will first receive another $24 billion from frozen assets before the 60-day talks begin. Different interpretations of what has been agreed upon are already being formulated.
Unknown details
The memorandum provides for a 60-day cessation of hostilities, the lifting of Iranian control over oil sea lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, and the termination of the US naval blockade. It is scheduled to take effect after a signing ceremony in Switzerland next Friday, June 19. Vice President JD Vance told Fox News that the agreement includes assurance that Iran will never produce, acquire, or purchase a nuclear weapon. Any agreement that ends a conflict—especially one that shook the global economy, cost the lives of 13 US military personnel, an unknown number of Iranian civilians, and returned Lebanon to the sad position of being a field for foreign wars—is a positive development.
The three questions
However, the lack of details and the terms that have become known leave Trump facing three immediate questions that will determine the future strategic balance in the Middle East, the place of the war in history, and how all this will influence his presidential legacy:
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Do the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the blockade merely signal a return to the pre-war status quo, given that the critical issue of the nuclear program remains unresolved?
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Is Trump closer to a nuclear agreement superior to the one negotiated by the Obama administration, which was internationally supported and monitored, and with which Iran was complying until Trump canceled it in his first term?
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And, most importantly, beyond weakening Iran's conventional military capabilities, did the war—which the majority of Americans did not want and which caused enormous global difficulties—achieve results that justify its cost?
US in decline
The failure of the US and Israel, following the death of the previous Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, to overthrow the Iranian regime—which is defined by its hostility toward the US and seeks the elimination of the Jewish state—also portends future tensions that could lead to a new conflagration. Inside Iran, once war conditions subside, the focus will turn to whether the regime has been critically weakened by the war and the American blockade, or if, conversely, it has been strengthened by its survival and is ready for a new period of repression. More generally, the consequences of the war will show whether Trump's attempt to impose US military power was effective or if it led to yet another American humiliation in the Middle East, reinforcing the perception—especially in China—that American power is in decline.
Heavy claim
It was significant that, after weeks during which Trump heralded imminent peace agreements, Sunday's memorandum was also acknowledged by the Islamic Republic of Iran. "Many presidents have tried to achieve peace with Iran and all failed before me," Trump stated on social media, in an obvious attempt to strengthen the narrative of a triumphant success that matched the festive atmosphere of his birthday. JD Vance added: "What the president essentially achieved is to eliminate Iran's nuclear threat. This has now been completed." This is a particularly heavy claim. However, if the optimism of the president and vice president is confirmed by future negotiations and a final agreement, Trump will be entitled to claim credit for settling a confrontation with Iran that has troubled American presidents for almost 50 years. Such historic vindication, however, is still a long way off.
Trump to the New York Times: Iran will be able to proceed with low-level uranium enrichment
It is characteristic that Trump mentioned in statements to the New York Times that Iran would be permitted to proceed with uranium enrichment at low levels. Trump, who until recently insisted on the need to destroy all of Iran's nuclear facilities and implement a "zero enrichment" policy, stated to the New York Times that Tehran could maintain enrichment at low levels. The report points out that the memorandum of understanding signed does not yet include an agreement on the nuclear issue. However, Trump's new position is seen by the Iranian side as a retreat from some of his previous demands.
Negotiations
The most critical issue—the one that led to the war—is the future of Iran's nuclear program and its stocks of highly enriched uranium. This question is referred by the memorandum to future negotiations, which are expected to be particularly complex and tense. Iran has repeatedly stated that it does not seek the acquisition of nuclear weapons, so a new assurance in this direction does not add much. There have been minimal reports from the US side regarding limiting Iranian support for allied armed organizations, such as Hezbollah, or limiting Iran's missile programs. Both issues are major topics for Israel, and if left unresolved, could blow the agreement apart.
Different interpretations
Different perceptions of what the memorandum actually means are already beginning to form. The US insists that any release of Iranian assets or lifting of sanctions will be strictly tied to Iran's compliance. Tehran, conversely, argues that the 60-day period will only begin when Washington starts disbursing billions of dollars from its frozen assets. The distrust between the US and Iran is so deep that it will be a major achievement if the agreement is maintained until a final accord is signed. "This is essentially a temporary pause in a hot war between America and Iran. And we will return to a state of Cold War with Iran," stated CNN international affairs analyst Karim Sadjadpour.
It will take months
The memorandum strengthens market optimism that a period of intense economic turbulence will begin to subside, particularly if dozens of oil tankers that have remained trapped in the Persian Gulf for months can move again. The energy shock caused by the war sent fuel prices soaring globally and fueled inflation. However, analysts warn that even if oil prices begin to fall, it will take months for supply chains to be restored. Moreover, Iran has stated that it intends to impose transit fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Needs quick results
Politically, Trump needs quick results. If oil prices fall, fuel prices may follow, reducing some inflationary pressures. His failure to fulfill his 2024 campaign promise to reduce food and housing prices has hurt his popularity among critical electoral groups. It remains doubtful whether Trump will reap a significant political benefit from ending a war that, according to polls, the majority of Americans did not support.
The US achieved nothing
Tehran has shown throughout the conflict—which began in February—that it understands the political pressures Trump faces within the US and has a long history of delays and stalling tactics in negotiations. Democrats are expected to link Trump's often contradictory public messages about Iran and his retreat from the promise not to start new wars abroad with the economic insecurity experienced by many American families.
The US-Iran agreement constitutes a "personal defeat for Netanyahu"
Israeli political analyst Gideon Levy stated that the announcement of the agreement between the US and Iran is perceived in Israel as "Israel's defeat and a personal defeat for Benjamin Netanyahu." Speaking to Al Jazeera, Gideon Levy argued that Iran was Netanyahu's "life's work" and that Israel has now been "completely excluded from the negotiations," with the only option being to resort to actions to obstruct the process.
i24 News: Trump failed to separate the Iran and Lebanon fronts
The Israeli media outlet i24NEWS admits that US President Donald Trump failed to disconnect the Lebanon front from that of Iran. According to a report citing the Iranian Mehr agency, Israeli government ministers estimate that developments on both fronts remain directly connected.
What the draft memorandum provides
According to the Iranian Mehr news agency, the 14-point draft memorandum between Iran and the US provides for:
• Immediate and permanent ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon.
• US commitment not to interfere in Iran's internal affairs.
• Termination of the naval blockade and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.
• Withdrawal of US military forces from areas surrounding Iran.
• Suspension of oil-related sanctions and restoration of Iran's access to its revenue.
• $300 billion in reconstruction plans/funding from the US and its allies.
• 60-day negotiations aimed at a final agreement focused on Iran's nuclear program and broad lifting of sanctions.
• Iran reaffirms it will not develop nuclear weapons under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
• No new US troop deployments and no new sanctions during negotiations.
• Release of $24 billion of frozen Iranian assets during the negotiation period.
• Creation of a monitoring mechanism and validation of the final agreement by the UN Security Council.
• Iran's missile programs and its support for regional allied organizations will be excluded from the talks.
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