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SpaceX phenomenon: $1.75 trillion or the bubble of the century - Absolute control by Elon Musk, fair value at half

SpaceX phenomenon: $1.75 trillion or the bubble of the century - Absolute control by Elon Musk, fair value at half

Elon Musk is one step away from becoming the world's first trillionaire.

The largest initial public offering (IPO) in history is now a reality. SpaceX has officially announced its share price at $135, completing an IPO worth $75 billion, which propels the company into the top ranks of the world's largest publicly traded firms and brings its founder, Elon Musk, one step away from becoming the world's first trillionaire.

Record-breaking IPO with a $1.77 trillion valuation

Although there were few doubts about the final price, since the unique structure of the public offering had essentially discounted that it would be set at $135 per share, SpaceX officially confirmed the pricing with the filing of the relevant prospectus (Free Writing Prospectus). The company offered 555.6 million shares at $135 each, raising a total of $75 billion, excluding the potential additional share offering via the greenshoe option. This is the largest IPO of all time, more than double the size of the 2019 Saudi Aramco listing, which raised $29.4 billion.

SpaceX surpasses even Tesla

With a price of $135 per share, SpaceX's market capitalization stands at $1.77 trillion. Including employee stock options and restricted stock, the fully diluted valuation reaches approximately $1.8 trillion. Thus, SpaceX enters the top ten largest publicly traded companies globally, surpassing even Elon Musk's Tesla. According to the prediction platform Polymarket, there is an 84% probability that the stock will close its first day of trading above the entry price, while the probability of it recording gains of over 20% is estimated at 46%.

Three business lines, but losses of nearly $5 billion

SpaceX reported net losses of $4.9 billion in 2025 and operates in three core sectors. The first concerns space exploration via the Falcon and Starship rockets. The second is telecommunications, with the Starlink satellite network providing broadband internet access. The third is artificial intelligence, via the subsidiary xAI.

Musk's retail investors support the issue

Elon Musk's strong base of supporters proved decisive for the success of the public offering. According to Bloomberg, retail investors submitted buy orders exceeding $100 billion, an amount much larger than the 20% of shares that had been allocated to them. This retail enthusiasm was the key driver for the deal's final pricing.

Skeptics warn of excessive expectations

Despite the excitement, several analysts remain highly cautious. Noted short-seller James Chanos described the IPO as an "introduction based on hopes and dreams," arguing that the valuation is based more on Elon Musk's popularity and optimism surrounding Artificial Intelligence than on the company's actual financials, which have yet to show profitability. As he stated at the iConnections Global Alts conference in New York: "The total potential market of space is infinite. One can create any narrative they wish—colonies on Mars, factories on the Moon, or data centers in space—to justify such a high valuation."

Morningstar: The real value is almost half

Morningstar estimates that SpaceX's fair value is only $63 per share, which is less than half the IPO price. The company's chief equity strategist, Michael Field, advises investors to avoid the IPO and wait for a more attractive entry point. As he notes: "We believe the company has some truly strong advantages, particularly through Starlink. However, much of the valuation is based on unknown and untested technologies, especially in the field of AI, making the valuation extremely speculative."

AI fuels the new wave of listings

Despite the reservations, many acknowledge that Elon Musk has transformed both Tesla and SpaceX into business giants that have generated significant returns for investors. Furthermore, potential regulatory changes could accelerate the stock's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index, increasing demand from passive investment funds. SpaceX is the first of three major AI company IPOs expected in the coming period. Anthropic and OpenAI are also estimated to potentially go public within the year, seeking valuations that could exceed $1 trillion.

The trillionaire's dream

A successful stock performance could make Elon Musk the first person with a personal fortune of $1 trillion. His wealth could increase even further if he achieves the goals linked to additional Class B stock awards. To obtain all these rights, SpaceX must reach a market capitalization of $7.5 trillion, complete off-Earth data centers with a computing power of 100 terawatts annually, and establish a permanent human colony on Mars with at least one million inhabitants.

Absolute control by Elon Musk

Elon Musk will not be able to sell shares for one year after the start of trading; however, after the IPO, he is expected to control 84% of the voting rights. This specific structure provides him with essentially total control over corporate governance and the composition of the board, which means that only he can effectively decide his removal from the CEO position. Now, the market turns its gaze to the first day of stock trading to see if the limited float combined with the massive retail investor participation will lead to another historic market rally.

www.bankingnews.gr

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