"I ended the war": Trump talks about a historic deal, but victory and the final word remain with Iran – The "14 points" of the agreement

In just 24 hours, Donald Trump shifted from threats of striking Iran's strategic oil hub to announcing that he "ended the war." This spectacular diplomatic reversal caused confusion among allies and adversaries alike, while the actual terms of the alleged agreement remain unknown. With Iran keeping its cards close to its chest and experts questioning the substance of the announcements, Washington is faced with a critical question: is this a historic diplomatic success or a political narrative that is running ahead of the facts? Analysts argue that while Trump speaks of a historic success, it is Iran that holds the key to victory and has the final word on whether a deal will ultimately materialize or not.

The 14 points of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding

The final stage of negotiations between the United States and Iran is expected to focus on nuclear and economic issues, reports the Iranian news agency Mehr. Mehr revealed the latest details of the 14-point draft memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Washington and Tehran, stating that the potential agreement includes the lifting of US sanctions, the withdrawal of troops from areas controlled by Iran, the lifting of the naval blockade, the release of frozen Iranian funds, and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, Mehr reported that Iran's missile program is not part of the negotiations, adding that the draft still needs final approval from the relevant institutions. Specifically, Mehr states, citing a source in the Iranian negotiating team, that the key points of the draft are as follows:

1. Permanent and immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon.

2. Commitment of the United States to non-interference in the internal affairs of Iran and respect for the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

3. Complete lifting of the maritime blockade within thirty days.

4. Commitment of the United States to withdraw its forces from Iran.

5. Opening of the Strait of Hormuz within thirty days, with arrangements to be determined by Iran.

6. Suspension of sanctions on sales of oil, petrochemical products, and their derivatives, as well as full access for Iran to its financial resources.

7. Obligation of the United States and its allies to present a plan for the reconstruction of Iran worth at least 300 billion dollars.

8. Sixty days of negotiations to reach a final agreement regarding the nuclear program and the complete lifting of primary and secondary US sanctions, as well as the relevant decisions of the UN Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

9. Reaffirmation of Iran's commitment to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) that it will not seek to produce nuclear weapons.

10. During the negotiations, the United States commits that it will not reinforce its military forces in the region and will not impose new sanctions.

11. Release of 24 billion dollars of frozen Iranian funds during the sixty-day period of final negotiations. Half of this amount should be made available to Iran before the start of the negotiations.

12. Creation of a monitoring mechanism for the implementation of the agreement.

13. The final agreement will be approved through a UN Security Council resolution.

14. The final negotiations will not begin before the release of half of the amount of frozen Iranian funds, the suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil, and the lifting of the maritime blockade. The definitive agreement will concern exclusively the issue of the future of enriched nuclear materials and uranium enrichment, the lifting of sanctions, and the reconstruction of the Iranian economy, while the discussion about Iran's missile program and support for "resistance" organizations has been permanently removed from the agenda. As announced by the spokesperson of the Foreign Ministry, the text still needs examination and finalization by the relevant institutions in Iran.

War over

The world was suddenly shaken in recent days between a seemingly imminent and dangerous escalation of the war with Iran and a claim that peace had been achieved. At least, that is what President Donald Trump claims. A few hours earlier, the head of the US armed forces was threatening to invade Iran's Kharg Island, the country's key oil export hub—an operation that would have put many American soldiers' lives at risk. A few hours later, however, he proclaimed that he had achieved a "great" deal to end the war, which will ensure that the Islamic Republic will never acquire a nuclear weapon. Trump argued that his threats—and the latest airstrikes against Iran—essentially forced Tehran to retreat to the negotiating table. "I don't know if you heard, but today we ended the war with Iran," Trump said in a conference call supporting the Georgia governor's election campaign.

What is the truth

The truth, however, may be more complex. A verifiable agreement to end Iran's nuclear ambitions, which would ensure Tehran's compliance, would be a historic development. It would end a war that has shaken the Middle East and triggered an energy crisis, rocking the global economy and driving up fuel prices and inflation in the United States. It would also offer Trump a way out of a war that was supposed to last a few weeks when he started it in February, but has dragged on until summer and has severely damaged his political standing at home. Most importantly, such an agreement could save the lives of American military personnel, Iranian and Israeli civilians, and many others caught in the crossfire of the regional conflict.

No credibility

To put it mildly, however, Trump has not proven to be a particularly credible narrator of the war. He has announced nearly 40 times that a deal is imminent. He has repeatedly claimed that Iran succumbed to his demands, while the Islamic Republic's stance showed exactly the opposite. Thus, the world will wait for more details on the agreement with due caution—even if Trump predicts that a signing ceremony could soon take place in Europe. "At this moment there is no credible evidence that we have a deal and, even if there is, it is not clear if it will hold," said Seth Jones, chair of the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, to CNN. In the absence of such evidence, many will conclude that the president, an expert in political marketing, is overhyping the deal.

"This is not a final agreement ending the war"

The White House has not yet released the detailed text of the proposed memorandum of understanding. One possible scenario is that negotiators have reached an agreement in principle with Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, in exchange for the suspension of the American naval blockade. In this case, the most critical and difficult issue—the future of its nuclear program—will be referred to future talks. Frank Kendall, who served as Air Force Secretary during the Biden administration, said Trump's claims should be treated "with caution." Kendall added: "It is very important to understand that this is not a final agreement ending this war. It is an extension of the ceasefire, likely for about 60 days, while negotiations continue on Iran's nuclear program, which is—at least theoretically—the reason why we got into this conflict."

Reservations from Republicans

Skepticism is also expressed by some conservative Republicans, including Fox News commentator Mark Levin. "It is difficult to comment on a memorandum of understanding that is not public and whose exact terms we do not know," Levin wrote on X. "If it is finished and is to be signed within the next 48-72 hours, let us see it." Even if such a memorandum is confirmed and signed, it will raise a new series of questions. First, Trump will be judged in comparison to the detailed, exhaustively negotiated, and internationally validated agreement to control Iran's nuclear program that Barack Obama's team had negotiated. Trump canceled that agreement in 2018, even though his own administration had certified that Tehran was fulfilling its obligations. And ultimately he will have to answer the following question: Has his war—which cost the lives of 13 American military personnel, destroyed US military equipment worth millions of dollars, and plunged the global economy into crisis—made Americans safer or in a better position?

Evaluation criteria

Although Trump is particularly skilled at shaping political narratives, the real conditions of the war and Iran's immovable stance mean that the true nature of the proposed agreement will soon be revealed. When all the details are made public, Trump will be faced with a series of questions and criteria that will show if this is a substantial and viable agreement. Is it just an agreement to reopen the Strait and lift the blockade, or does it address the substance of the nuclear issue? Trump caused concern when he described the proposed memorandum of understanding in the Oval Office as "somewhat conceptual." This phrasing suggests that the agreement may be superficial and very far from finalization. The scope of the agreement also matters. Opening the Strait would be a huge relief for governments in the region, oil producers, and consumers worldwide. Lifting the American blockade could alleviate some of the severe difficulties Iranian citizens face because of their regime. However, such an agreement would simply amount to a return to the status quo before the start of the war. And it would not undo a major strategic achievement of Iran: its now-proven ability to close the Strait and strangle the global economy at any time.

What about nuclear weapons

An agreement just to discuss Iran's nuclear program could hardly be described as a "great deal." History shows that such negotiations are likely to last weeks or even months, with no guarantee of success. They will involve complex negotiations for the verification of any Iranian commitment not to enrich uranium. The issue of removing the stocks of highly enriched uranium that Tehran produced after Trump's cancellation of the Obama deal could derail the talks at any time. Iran has argued for years that it does not seek to build a nuclear weapon. Therefore, the simple signing of a document repeating this position would not mean much, regardless of how Trump might attempt to present it. The lack of clear details from the White House is already causing skepticism on Capitol Hill.

No trust

"I want to read it," said Louisiana Senator John Kennedy when asked by CNN to comment on Trump's announcement. "I trust the political leadership of Iran about as much as I trust a toilet in a highway rest stop." The reaction of Republicans to the final details of the memorandum will be decisive. In fact, a previous negative reaction from GOP officials appears to have led Trump to return an earlier plan to Iran with corrections.

How much money or how much lifting of sanctions will Iran receive?

The Iranian economy was already in a dire state before Trump imposed a blockade on the country's ships and ports. Years of sanctions had crushed its economy. For this reason, Tehran has demanded significant economic incentives to participate in diplomatic negotiations. CNN reported in May that Iran is demanding the immediate unfreezing of billions of dollars located in foreign banks. Any impression that Iran is "buying off" Trump would be politically catastrophic for the president. After all, he has incessantly criticized the economic concessions that, in his view, Iran had extracted from Obama in exchange for freezing its nuclear program. It would also be a reason for the rejection of the agreement by Republican senators, whose support the president would need for the lifting of certain sanctions so that a final agreement can be solidified. "I also want to know how much money we are releasing to Iran," Kennedy said.

Will Israel agree?

Trump started the war in cooperation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. However, their interests have diverged in recent weeks. Trump forced Israel to limit its attacks on Hezbollah in Beirut, as these threatened the prospects of a deal. The two leaders spoke again on Thursday, and the Israeli side's announcement carefully avoided criticizing Trump, but hinted that the initial agreement does not cover Israel's most critical interests. Netanyahu "expressed his appreciation" to Trump for his commitment that a final agreement will provide for the removal of Tehran's enriched uranium, the dismantling of its nuclear infrastructure, the limitation of missile production, and the end of support for regional armed organizations. Israel's view that Hezbollah forces in Lebanon and Iran's insistence on reconstructing the organization as a key tool of its regional power almost blew up the US-Iran talks last week. And they could do so again at any time.

Does Iran share Trump's optimism?

Trump claimed on Thursday that Iran's new supreme leader has approved the deal. However, there is little evidence to support his claim that he is negotiating with more "rational" leaders after the death of many top officials in US and Israeli strikes. So far, American attacks tend to strengthen the regime's resistance, despite Trump's claims that the latest airstrikes forced Iran to offer concessions. There is no indication that this has changed. In the first reaction to Trump's optimistic predictions that a deal is close, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei told the state news agency IRNA that reports to that effect are "merely speculation." He added: "So far, Iran has not made a final decision regarding any agreement." Ultimately, what will matter is not what Trump says the agreement will include, but whether Iran signs it and honors its commitments. Despite the American president's optimism, this moment still seems very far away.

What Axios reports

A mediating diplomat told the Axios agency that "the United States and Iran have agreed on the text of an agreement." The draft that is alleged to have been agreed upon provides for: • Immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz without transit fees. • Restoration of commercial shipping to pre-war levels within 30 days. • Lifting of the American naval blockade. • Extension of the ceasefire for 60 days, including Lebanon.

What the Islamabad Agreement provides

Based on the Axios report, the agreement is now alleged to have a name, a place of signing, and a finalized text. According to Axios, the United States and Iran reached the so-called Islamabad Agreement, which provides for the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz without transit fees, the lifting of the blockade, the extension of the ceasefire for 60 days—including Lebanon—as well as a gradual lifting of sanctions conditioned on the parties' compliance. According to the same information, issues concerning the nuclear program will not be resolved immediately through the initial memorandum of understanding (MoU). Instead, the memorandum will set the general framework, and specific nuclear commitments will be the subject of a second, more detailed agreement. Specifically:

According to information attributed to Axios, the draft agreement includes the following:

Nuclear program

• Iran commits that it will never acquire a nuclear weapon.

• Iran appears willing to proceed with the "down-blending" of highly enriched uranium stocks within the country, under the supervision of UN inspectors.

• Any specific measures for the nuclear program will be implemented only if a second, more analytical agreement is reached at a later stage.

Strait of Hormuz

• The United States will end the naval blockade.

• The Strait of Hormuz will open immediately without transit fees.

• Commercial shipping will return to pre-war levels within 30 days.

Lebanon and regional de-escalation

• The ceasefire will be extended to the entire Middle East, including Lebanon.

Sanctions

• Sanctions concerning Iranian oil exports will be suspended for a period of 60 days.

• Further lifting of sanctions will depend on the implementation of the agreement and on whether Iran demonstrates "good faith" in the next negotiations.

Frozen funds

• Tehran is asking for the release of part of its frozen assets immediately after the signing of the initial agreement.

• The American side is allegedly proposing a gradual disbursement of the amounts in tranches.

Ceasefire details

• Extension of the ceasefire for 60 days.

• The agreement is alleged to have been mediated by Qatar and Pakistan.

• A signing ceremony in Geneva is being considered with the participation of US Vice President JD Vance.

• The agreement is alleged to be named the "Islamabad Agreement." According to the same information, the last step that remains is final approval from Mojtaba Khamenei, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is alleged not to have been informed in advance of the details of the negotiations and was seeking information through contacts in Washington.

What remains uncertain

Despite this information, Iranian officials have repeatedly stated that:

• Final approval has not yet been given by the relevant bodies in the country.

• The text is still being examined at the highest level.

• Reports about a finalized agreement remain, according to Tehran, premature and largely journalistic speculation. Therefore, the above describes the content of the alleged draft agreement as presented by sources cited by Axios and not an officially ratified agreement.

Mohammad Eslami (Iranian analyst): Trump wants to send positive messages to the markets

The United States is talking about a possible memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Iran that is nearing completion, while simultaneously continuing to modify the text of the agreement, said Mohammad Eslami from the University of Tehran, commenting on the American president's statements that the agreement is "close." "Donald Trump is trying to send some kind of positive messages to the markets and the global economy. Donald Trump and American negotiators are trying to create a problem with the existing memorandum of understanding," said Eslami speaking to Al Jazeera. "It is very important to find a solution so that the Iranians receive their money from the moment of signing the memorandum of understanding. At this moment, the Iranians are working with their Qatari counterparts to find a solution that will allow them to gain access to the money," the analyst emphasized, stressing that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and his advisors have the final word in forming the final wording of any agreement. According to Eslami, the Iranians do not wish to offer Donald Trump "a kind of victory" regarding the memorandum of understanding.

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