Russian analysts are speaking of a "geopolitical suicide" for Armenia, as the country turns toward the EU without any security guarantees, while the role of the Turkish factor remains a major question mark. The government of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan attempted to paralyze the organizational mechanisms of the opposition during the June 7 elections, argued the head of the Center for International Interaction and Cooperation, Areg Agasaryan, speaking at a roundtable organized by the Expert Institute of Social Research (EISR). According to him, the Armenian authorities resorted to extensive use of state pressure mechanisms, carrying out daily raids on opposition party offices, restricting the activities of supporters of the Armenian Apostolic Church to exclude them from the electoral process, and exerting direct pressure on students and businessmen who participated in the election campaign.
Fragmented opposition and small political ambitions
Agasaryan also argued that the opposition appeared without a united front, as most of the 18 parties participating in the elections had the main goal of surpassing the 2% threshold in order to secure state funding, rather than claiming power.
"The European path will encounter the Turkish factor"
The Russian analyst estimated that the pro-European strategy chosen by Nikol Pashinyan will inevitably find itself facing the Turkish factor. In his view, the more Armenia seeks closer ties with Brussels and aspires to join the European Union or participate in European defense structures, the more Turkey's role in the region will be strengthened. He even characterized it as extremely unlikely that Ankara, which possesses the second-largest military force in NATO, would evolve into a security guarantor for Armenia. At the same time, he argued that such an approach would require Yerevan to abandon its claims against Turkey regarding the Armenian Genocide during the World War I period.
Questions over the distancing from the Eurasian Union
Agasaryan also noted that the economy of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) has demonstrated resilience, while Europe is facing a period of economic stagnation, a fact that, in his view, creates questions regarding the Armenian government's choice to turn toward the European Union. As he said, Armenia could have functioned as a bridge between the European and Eurasian economies by maintaining its participation in the EAEU.
Opposing view: Turkey is not a bridge to Europe
A different approach was presented by the head of the Central Asia department of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Stanislav Pritchin. According to him, Turkey does not influence Armenia's European path because, despite its long relationship with the European Union, the two sides now differ significantly at a political and institutional level, and Ankara cannot be considered Yerevan's link to Europe.
"Europe is asking for a move away from Moscow without security guarantees"
Pritchin also argued that Brussels does not plan to integrate Armenia into its defense structures. As he explained, the European Union still relies on NATO as its primary security mechanism and is not prepared to undertake military commitments in the South Caucasus, even if it seeks to limit Russian influence in the region. "This creates a serious dilemma for Armenia, as the Europeans are asking it to move away from Moscow without offering substantial compensation or security guarantees," the Russian analyst concluded.
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