History shows that most major technology IPOs do not easily offer profits to investors who enter on the first day. On the contrary, several stocks record significant losses within their first year of trading. However, the upcoming listings of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are considered so massive that they may overturn everything we have known until today. The big question now preoccupying the market is simple: is it worth investing as soon as trading begins, or is it better to wait?
According to market executives, these colossal IPOs are expected to draw huge amounts of capital, affecting both major indices and the interest of retail investors. Despite the enthusiasm, historical data is not particularly encouraging. An analysis by Truist Wealth of 30 major technology IPOs over the last 15 years showed that stocks recorded, on average, a maximum decline of 55% within their first year on the stock market. Returns in the first six months were also often negative.
Frenzy for artificial intelligence
A key reason is that IPOs initially circulate a limited number of shares, while later, when lockup periods expire, early investors gain the ability to sell, significantly increasing the supply in the market. Nevertheless, these specific listings are considered a different case. SpaceX is rumored to be able to proceed with the largest IPO ever held, with a valuation reaching $1.8 trillion. At the same time, Anthropic and OpenAI have already attracted funding that values them in the hundreds of billions of dollars.
Estimates indicate that all three companies could reach or exceed the $1 trillion threshold in market value, something that few companies in the S&P 500 have achieved today. Artificial intelligence is at the center of this investment frenzy. Huge investments made by giants like Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft have created a strong wave of growth in many sectors, from semiconductors to energy and construction. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are already considered the protagonists of the next technological era. However, this does not mean that buying their shares on the very first day will prove to be the smartest move.
Similarities to the 1990s "bubble"
Many fund managers remind us that neither Google nor Facebook needed to be bought on the day of their IPO to yield impressive profits for long-term investors. Those who waited months or even a year were also able to benefit significantly. At the same time, several analysts see similarities with the era of the internet "bubble" in the late 1990s, when investors poured money into every company related to the internet. However, when mass sales by insiders and investors began after the expiration of lockups, the market turned sharply downward. The fear today is that a similar scenario could be repeated. Until then, however, several estimate that it is not excluded to see an explosive rise in prices before any serious correction.
What does history teach us?
Meta (Facebook): Its 2012 IPO started disappointingly, and the stock lost over 30% within the first year. However, those who held their position were rewarded with a rise that exceeded 1,400%.
Tesla: After its introduction in 2010, the stock went through long periods of uncertainty and intense fluctuations. Nevertheless, it evolved into one of the most profitable investments of all time, with a total rise of over 25,000%.
CoreWeave: Despite the spectacular rise after its IPO, the stock experienced great fluctuations, proving how unpredictable new listings can be even in sectors that are at the center of attention. The conclusion? The IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic may represent the greatest investment opportunities of the decade. History, however, shows that patience is often rewarded more than first-day enthusiasm.
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