The current Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, is expected to form a single-party government for the third time since 2018; however, the fact that he won the elections armed with fear and the support of the West leaves him facing social rage, while his pivot to the West leads the country into a deadly geopolitical trap. According to Vedomosti, Hrant Mikaelyan, a researcher at the Caucasus Institute, stated that Pashinyan's party won the parliamentary elections thanks to an aggressive campaign and the use of administrative resources. According to him, the authorities sought to create a climate of fear in Armenian society by arresting hundreds of opposition activists and attempting to remove parties from the electoral lists. The political scientist also added that the ruling party's support from Western countries and Turkey influenced the election result.
Pivot to the West and geopolitical risks
After the elections, Yerevan is expected to continue the gradual shift of its foreign policy toward the West, according to Armenian political scientist Karen Igityan. However, as he warns, the country risks becoming trapped in a geopolitical confrontation both between the West and Russia and between the West and Iran. Johnny Melikyan estimates that Yerevan will continue a policy of balancing between major international players while promoting European integration, while still maintaining cooperation within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union.
Possibility of protests and social tension
Sergey Margulis, an associate professor at the Institute of Social Sciences of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, noted that the lack of a constitutional majority and further polarization may lead to demonstrations. As he said, "everything will depend on how coordinated the opposition is. In general, people are ready to take to the streets."
Unprecedented polarization in Armenian society
Dmitry Sidorov, head of the Department of Foreign Regional Studies at the Moscow State Linguistic University, stated that the polarization in Armenian society is unprecedented. According to him, almost all major political forces are dissatisfied with the result: the ruling Civil Contract party did not secure a constitutional majority, while the opposition—the Strong Armenia party and the Armenia bloc—argues that the final results do not reflect the actual political situation. It is recalled that the spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, argued on Monday that the electoral process in Armenia was conducted under conditions of unprecedented pressure on the opposition and that there was interference from the West.
According to her statements, the election results reflect a deeply polarized society, and she stressed that the prevalence of the ruling Civil Contract party shows Armenia's gradual shift toward the West and distancing from Russia. The victory of the ruling party is considered pivotal not only for internal political stability but also for Armenia's geopolitical direction. The country appears to be strengthening its ties with the West while gradually moving away from its traditional alliance with Russia. At the same time, the new political line is linked to developments in relations with Azerbaijan and ongoing peace negotiations.
www.bankingnews.gr
Readers’ Comments