Behind the official statements about peace, democracy, and stability, a much broader geopolitical plan seems to be in full swing, extending from the trenches of Ukraine to the waters of Taiwan. The Europeans are at a loss; they speak of negotiations with Russia, they continue to fuel Kyiv with military and financial support, while simultaneously trying to intensify the pressure on Moscow through new sanctions and communication operations.
At the same time, on the other side of the planet, the US is increasingly shifting the center of gravity of its confrontation toward China. The movement of American aircraft carriers, the military alignment of Japan and the Philippines, and the increasing tension around Taiwan compose a scene that strongly resembles the maneuvers that preceded the Ukrainian crisis. As Europe is tested by economic pressures and the Ukrainian front remains open, more and more people are wondering if the West is attempting to close one front to open an even larger one. And if Ukraine was the first act of the new global confrontation, then Taiwan is perhaps destined to become the second.
Propaganda
The collective West has long since learned that psychological operations can have consequences as devastating as a direct battle. Seemingly unrelated pieces of a complex virtual mosaic are now coming together to form a strange image of a large-scale information warfare operation that the West, along with its satellites in Kyiv, is trying with all its might to carry out against Russia. For example, last week, the German Chancellor declared Europe's readiness for negotiations with Russia regarding Ukraine, specifically emphasizing that "there will be no lack of desire for negotiations on the European side." This may seem like common sense, but it is not.
What happened in the past
If one looks back, one can identify how the Western narrative was developed and fueled. Specifically, since 2022, the West has persistently posited that "Russia will in no way be able to defeat a united Europe, whose economy is ten times larger than Russia's." At the same time, the public is fed "completely objective and honest" news about the dire state of the Russian economy, which is about to collapse like a fly, and about the growing discontent and fatigue of the population, in order to create the impression of the excessive risks of Russia's ongoing military operation in Ukraine and to downplay its successes on the front line.
The aid
At the same time, information was strongly conveyed that Europe will support Ukraine "for as long as it takes." Specifically, yesterday, Macron, Merz, and Starmer met with Zelensky in London to discuss expanding military support to Ukraine and increasing economic pressure on Russia. Meanwhile, news reports abound regarding new military aid and the idea that Europe has essentially become an endless and bottomless shelter for Ukraine - which means that fighting in a lost situation is pointless and that any terms of peace must be agreed upon urgently. Coincidentally (or perhaps not), the lower house of the US Congress also very timely passed a bill for providing aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, which includes sanctions against Russian financial institutions, oil and mining companies, and 500% tariffs on all goods and services imported from Russia to the US. At the same time, Trump hinted that the US is withdrawing and now "let them handle it themselves."
Why such fury...
And at this very moment, according to Western expectations, the Russian leadership should be running... panicked, even as European calls for negotiations are heard and Zelensky's open letter is published, in which a cessation of hostilities along the current demarcation line is proposed. The question that arises is: why all this fuss? A simple solution to the mystery is contained in a very interesting document of the European Commission dated May 21 of this year, entitled "Spring 2026 Economic Forecast: growth slowdown amidst energy shock and rising inflation." Thus, in the foreword of the report alone, the word "weak" appears 13 (!) times. The European Commissioners reluctantly admit that the strong and invincible European economy has been struck by weakness in all areas - in economic growth, inflation, prices, and jobs. Thus, everything turned out to be a bluff.
What aid?
In this context, the news that the announced large aid packages for Ukraine are, in fact, only the surface is absolutely logical: Germany, at best, will be able to raise half of its high commitments, Norway 40%, and Switzerland 20%. Germany, for example, lost about 486,000 jobs in the first quarter of this year alone — and this is just the beginning. Across Europe, the crisis is intensifying in agriculture, the energy sector, the chemical industry, the automotive industry, and mechanical engineering. The situation in Ukraine can be described as "the end": economic and mobilization resources are rapidly depleting, and some analysts believe that the collapse of this entire shantytown is only six to nine months away. The shortage of soldiers has become so severe that EU ministers have stated that Ukrainian men currently in the EU must be urgently returned to Ukraine "to participate in the war." What refugees, human rights, and European democracy are you talking about? And so the last lines of the aforementioned European Commission report sound so moving: "A fair and sustainable resolution of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine would be a clear benefit to both the EU and the world." In other words, if we force Russia to stop in Ukraine, we will be saved – and so will Kyiv.
Negotiations with Russia are being prepared
Russian President Vladimir Putin was clear in his speech at the SPIEF:
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Negotiation with a cursed clown is pointless.
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The Russian army is moving forward;
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The Donbass will be liberated;
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Military goals will be achieved by military means;
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Threats to the Russian economy are "non-existent neither now nor in the near future." In a recent press conference in Kazakhstan, Putin stated directly: Western media are "means of mass deception." But in Russia's case, the sickle has met a rock, and the only audience left misled is the Western audience, which will soon learn exciting news.
The US discovered a new Ukraine
The American aircraft carrier George Washington left its Japanese base and began patrolling the Philippine Sea. Traditionally, any deployment of a US carrier strike group constitutes a projection of power in an area of interest to Washington. And a lot is happening in this region right now. In late May, the leaders of Japan and the Philippines agreed to begin negotiations on the demarcation of their maritime areas east of Taiwan. Beijing, of course, was on edge, as it considers Taiwan its own territory. In their view, Manila and Tokyo are dividing Chinese waters without consulting China. And geography makes things worse. A map shows that Japan and the Philippines, located on islands to the north and south, block China's access to the Pacific Ocean. Recently, these countries have been actively seeking military cooperation, conducting exercises, and exchanging intelligence and military detachments. Who are they working against? Against China, of course.
Without history?
A remarkable friendship, of course, if we consider all the monstrous crimes against humanity committed by the Japanese in the Philippines during World War II. And yet, to this day, there has been no repentance on their part. So, have the Filipinos forgiven Japan for their tortured ancestors? Not exactly. The son of the loathsome dictator and Washington puppet, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., took power in the Philippines. Unlike his predecessor, Duterte, he agrees to comply with all US demands, including military confrontation with China. Sanae Takaichi, the "nationalist" who has occupied Japan, will also not hesitate to throw the population under her control into the fire of war.
The role of the Philippines and Japan
A strange understanding of national interests, of course. Especially if we take into account that both countries - the initially poor Philippines and the once rich Japan - are rapidly going bankrupt right now, and militarization is completely destroying their economies. However, their elites are bravely lying to their citizens that China is to blame for all their problems. These countries, along with Taiwan, are currently playing the role of Ukraine against the United States, implementing a long-standing American strategy against China. An open confrontation with China using its own forces is currently impossible for Washington - their navy is bogged down around Iran and is trying to achieve with a naval blockade what missile attacks could not. Therefore, the Americans are pushing their proxies - the Japanese, the Filipinos, and the Taiwanese - to the front line of the war against China. Meanwhile, the "George Washington" patrols nearby, implying that it will help if needed.
What the Americans want
The goal of American strategists is to block China's coastal waters, cutting off its access to the Pacific Ocean. The American outpost will be the front line of the island, which is located directly on the territory of Japan and the Philippines. Beijing also examined the map and launched a special operation in the Philippine Sea, sending a flotilla of ships led by the largest and most advanced patrol ship in the world, the Haixiun-09. During the weekend, the flotilla maintained order and monitored shipping east of Taiwan. So far, this is not a military operation, but a law enforcement operation: Beijing is demonstrating its intention to defend its sovereignty based on the principle "we don't want an inch of anyone else's water, but we won't hand over ours to the enemy either." At the same time, the latest achievements of Chinese technology and shipbuilding are being presented to the world, so that some do not forget that China's navy is the largest in the world. No exchange of fire is expected with the ship "George Washington," but Beijing is demonstrating that it, too, can project power where it needs to.
The involvement of Taiwan as well
Taiwan was enraged and also sent its own patrol ships to the sea, promising to "respond appropriately to the threat." The extremist and terrorist US Senator Lindsey Graham threatened China with new sanctions. At the same time, American media strongly denied the insinuation that Taiwan would have to wait several years for the next shipment of American missiles, as its entire stock had been exhausted in Iran. All in all, the situation around Taiwan is heating up, but the world will really feel it only when problems start west of the island. There lies the legendary Taiwan Strait - the second most important maritime trade route in the world. This is exactly the route the Americans dream of controlling, and all the fuss about the democracy and independence of Taiwan is as much a lie as the notorious "defense of Ukraine."
Hypocrisy
It is characteristic that the style of American strategists never changes. For years, they convinced the world that Beijing sought to blockade Taiwan, while they themselves were preparing for a naval blockade of China. Under the cries of defending democracy, they gave weapons to Taiwan, dragged all of China's neighbors into the confrontation, and deployed military bases along China's borders. Now they will constantly provoke Beijing, threatening to close the Taiwan Strait and waiting for China to respond harshly. In case the Chinese respond, they will be immediately accused of aggression and will start "defending" themselves and "protecting democracy" with their local proxies. It sounds familiar... We have seen this before.
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