The developments around the Straits of Hormuz have converted into the most important geoeconomic issue for the global energy market.
Despite the fact that the passage of the most important oil corridor of the planet remains problematic, the financial markets show remarkable coolness.
JPMorgan still considers as its basic scenario the reopening of the Straits within June, despite the fact that there is not yet a visible political agreement leading to a de-escalation of the crisis.
The American bank estimates that the global oil reserves remain for the time being sufficient, however it recognizes that the prolonged disruption of flows has already significantly changed the picture of the market.
According to its new predictions, the available commercial inventories are expected to enter a zone of intense pressure at the end of June, while by September they may approach the minimum operational levels of safety.
Despite the risks, the oil markets still appear remarkably calm.
The volatility has receded noticeably, while the premium of physical Brent against future contracts has collapsed from the 36 dollars per barrel that it had reached in April to just 2 dollars today.
Why do markets not panic?
The explanation lies in a series of factors that until now absorb the shock.
1) Part of the transports continues to take place through alternative routes and non conventional networks of cargo distribution.
2) Countries such as Brazil and Venezuela increased their production more than the markets expected.
3) Most important, a significant demand destruction has already appeared, mainly from China.
According to the estimations that the analysts invoke, the Chinese oil imports decreased by approximately 3.8 million barrels daily, contributing decisively to the balancing of the market.
However, this balance remains fragile.
The warning of JPMorgan
JPMorgan estimates that each additional month during which the Straits remain out of full operation will have significant impacts on prices.
In the basic adverse scenario, the prices of Brent could increase by approximately 5 dollars per barrel during the third quarter of 2026 and up to 15 dollars per barrel during the fourth quarter, as the global inventories will be decreasing at an ever faster pace.
The bank considers that until now the market has relied on temporary mechanisms of absorption of shocks, which though cannot operate indefinitely.
The inventories are being exhausted
According to the available estimations:
1) China reduced oil imports nearly by 40% in May, offsetting approximately one fifth of the lost quantities from the Middle East.
2) The United States increased oil and fuel exports by more than 2 million barrels daily compared to the average of the previous year.
3) The Trump administration released approximately 172 million barrels from the strategic oil reserves with unprecedented speed.
4) The countries of the Persian Gulf redirected millions of barrels daily through pipelines toward the Red Sea and the port of Fujairah.
Despite these measures, the analysts estimate that the global inventories are decreasing today at a rate of 70 to 80 million barrels weekly.
The American crude inventories are at the lowest levels of recent decades, while the storage facilities in Cushing of Oklahoma are approaching critical operational limits.
Certain analysts calculate that the market has already lost quantities corresponding to nearly one billion barrels of oil without a sufficient replacement of supply having appeared yet.
OIL'S $200 NIGHTMARE DELAYED: BLOOMBERG WARNS THE REAL SHOCK IS STILL COMING
— Mark (@Mark4XX) June 6, 2026
For more than three months the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked, removing over 10 million barrels a day in the largest supply shock of the modern era. Oil never reached the $200 or $300 levels that… pic.twitter.com/MqPh0nKlPz
The big question is not Iran but the US
According to an alternative school of thought that gains ground in the circles of energy investors, the basic question is not when Iran will back down, but how much political and economic cost the United States are willing to endure.
This view argues that Iran has historically proven greater resilience in periods of economic pressure, while Washington faces domestic political pressures, stock market risks, and the midterm elections of November 2026.
Consequently, a part of the market considers a political compromise more likely than a large scale military escalation.
Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and the disagreements of analysts
The market remains deeply divided.
Certain houses consider that the demand destruction caused by the high prices will ultimately limit consumption and will lead again to a supply surplus by the end of the year.
Others estimate that the available inventories are much lower than believed and that any new disruption in production or transports could cause a sharp rise in prices.
Fitch, for example, predicts a return to conditions of oversupply from September 2026.
However, the specific scenario presupposes at the same time a de-escalation of the crisis, limited damages to energy infrastructure, rapid reopening of Hormuz, increase of production from Venezuela, relaxation of sanctions on Iran, and steady global demand.
This is essentially a scenario where nearly everything evolves favorably for the market.
The spike of uncertainty
In the present phase safe answers to the critical questions do not exist:
1) Will there be a new military escalation?
2) What is the real level of global inventories?
3) Will there be an agreement between Washington and Tehran before the inventories reach critical levels?
4) Can the global economy avoid deceleration if prices remain high?
Until answers are given, the oil market will continue to move between two extreme scenarios: a political de-escalation that will lead to oversupply and lower prices or a new supply crisis that could skyrocket Brent above 120 dollars per barrel.
The only certain thing is that the... battle between geopolitical developments and market fundamentals has not yet been decided.
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