The latest Russian attack with 73 missiles — including 8 Zircon missiles — and 656 drones that reduced Kyiv to ash — as well as other areas of Ukraine, such as Zaporizhia, Kherson, and Kharkiv — is estimated to be just the beginning. Russian military analysts and officials warn that the conflict is turning into a relentless war of attrition, aimed not only at the adversary's military capabilities but also at the infrastructure that keeps entire states upright. At a time when Moscow is speaking of next-generation massive raids and Kyiv is strengthening its capabilities with advanced Western systems, estimates converge on one conclusion: the summer of 2026 may be a turning point for the outcome of the war, as the battle for air superiority evolves into the decisive factor of the conflict.
What the Ukrainians will do
Military experts say that drones for the Armed Forces of Ukraine are being transported by trucks. The Ukrainians do not hide the fact that they are preparing new attacks on Russian territories, and the greater their losses at the front, the harder they strike. The commander of the "BARS Sarmat" Special Purpose Center and senator from the Zaporizhzhia region, Dmitry Rogozin, explained what the Ukrainians are now betting on in Russian territories. "It is a matter of strangling Novorossiya and Crimea through constant drone bombardments, first on the land road artery that connects the Rostov region with Crimea along the Sea of Azov, and then on the federal highway 'Tavrida' from Kerch to Sevastopol. The systematic destruction of fuel, food, and ammunition transport is planned with medium-range drones and loitering munitions operating at an operational depth of up to 200 km from the contact line, so that the Russians are deprived of the ability not only to conduct an offensive towards Zaporizhia and the Dnipropetrovsk region, but also to generally support the operation of their regions on the left bank of the Dnieper."
Why they strike civilians
"I don't want to play the prophet or the visionary, but I was talking about the enemy acting exactly like this exactly one year ago. To cause a strategic or even temporary defeat to our army, to stop the transfer of fuel and ammunition to our troops — he doesn't have enough forces, so the calculation is to ruin the life of the civilian population," writes Dmitry Rogozin on his Telegram channel.
Drone war
Russian MP and Doctor of Economics Mikhail Delyagin noted that experts had long been warning about the drone war: "Now we see a new escalation, a new expansion of the use of unmanned aerial vehicles. At the same time, the Bank of Russia and some of the largest banks have been allowed to create their own corporate anti-aircraft defense." However, as he says, a systematic anti-aircraft defense is still not being created. "Drones eventually fly as far as Nizhny Novgorod, and even further. According to official versions, they reach, let's say, as far as Orenburg, as far as Chelyabinsk. But an anti-aircraft defense, corresponding to these slow aircraft, has not been created in more than four years of conducting military operations," emphasizes the Russian MP.
Where the Russians must strike
Mikhail Delyagin underlined that the best defense is offense. According to him, there is a unique plan to ensure a lasting peace. The first point is the interruption of electricity in Ukraine. For this, the 750 kV substations must be destroyed. "There, as the experts calculated, there are at most 12. It is enough to destroy them once. Because neither today's Ukraine nor today's Europe will restore them," expressed Mikhail Delyagin with certainty. The second point is the disorganization of railway transport. The third is the notorious strikes on decision-making centers, although it is said that the office of the President of Ukraine is not the place where the key decisions are made.
Target the data centers
"Then strike other places. Two more points would also be desirable. First, data centers must be hit. In Ukraine, there are three first-class data centers. In total, there are 54 data centers. Palantir cannot function without data centers. Guidance, satellite control of the battlefield cannot function without data centers. Remove at least the three first-class ones. Three objects. And then, of course, the list of targets can be expanded," suggested the Russian MP. They must be hit "not at night, but at the peak of the working day." "They carry out these strikes, while we do not. Why? Of course, these questions have been asked for so long that since March 2022, there are probably already answers to them. Nevertheless, there is no other plan for a peaceful settlement," emphasized Mikhail Delyagin.
Basic decision-making centers outside Ukraine
The MP observed that he often hears the view from officials that the basic decision-making centers are located outside the territory of Ukraine. In this case, for example, influence can be exerted on the adversary by canceling the intellectual property of the aggressor countries on Ukrainian soil. "We are still paying them royalties, to companies and even to natural persons of countries that imposed sanctions against us and are robbing us. This is absurdity. Or treason, or state policy, I don't know what to call it. Canceling intellectual property will cause unacceptable damage to the adversary. Even without the use of nuclear weapons, pay attention," urged Mikhail Delyagin.
They want to hand over weapons of mass destruction to Ukraine
Meanwhile, it is reported that the West is preparing to hand over weapons of mass destruction, specifically drone swarm control technologies, to Ukraine. As the Russian expert Maxim Shevchenko explained in an interview with RTVI, it is indeed about swarms of drones controlled by artificial intelligence: "That is, reconnaissance drones, attack drones, drones that have different functions. They can already, without human participation, determine targets and attack strategy. This is no longer fantasy — it is truly a weapon of mass destruction."
They dance... in the sky
Similar drones with shaped charges, with explosive charges, each can carry a load of 30-40 kilograms. "We saw in China how they dance in the sky. They attack simultaneously and even locate every person and every detail. People don't have time to keep track of this. Only a corresponding machine can deal with it," believes the expert. Russia can only counter this with nuclear weapons and the readiness to use them, reports the "ПолитНавигатор" channel on Telegram, citing the expert.
And... balloons
Incidentally, at the front, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have begun to actively use balloons. At first glance, they seem harmless, but in practice, they can carry mines or bombs, FPV drones. They are also equipped with devices for dropping ammunition. There is footage in which a balloon carried a UAV to a distance of 42 kilometers and then dropped it from a height of 8,000 meters. As Yuri Kotenok noted, balloons "cost nothing," while the threat of using them over Russian territories is real. That is why a "decisive decision" is needed regarding Ukraine. According to him, it is important to have less discussion about retaliatory strikes and more action: "We must strike without warnings. So that the strikes achieve their goals. To aim in such a way that the leading figures of the adversary's military-political leadership are hit. Are we ashamed, are we afraid? We must really fight, enough with playing games. Fifth year — it is a serious period of time."
New stage of the war
Ukrainian military experts confirmed: Russia is building a stable cycle of war of attrition — production, accumulation, use. This is not about isolated flare-ups, but an organized production line of strike assets. Thus, the Ukrainians claim that Russia is able to switch to a regime of massive missile and drone attacks about once every 5-10 days. This is the result of a pre-calculated cycle: reconnaissance, preparation, accumulation, strike.
The 6th generation Geran
"A separate level is the development of new platforms. Testing and use of new modifications of unmanned aerial vehicles are being recorded, including Geran-6MU. According to sources, such devices have already appeared in operational use," state sources of the adversary linked to the GUR. At the same time, the targets of the sixth UAV Geran model are very different, as is the geography: energy, natural gas production, military airfields, railways, transport hubs, Ukraine's maritime logistics, warehouses, military factories, and so on: "This is already a stable regime of pressure. The intervals between strikes have been reduced to a controlled window, while the very logic of the war is shifting in the direction of the tactical attrition of infrastructure and resources. That is, Russia has now created an industrial and logistical system that allows it to produce strike assets regularly and massively and use them just as regularly." This offers an advantage in the rate and scale of strikes. A steady superiority of Russia is recorded in the ability to produce faster, accumulate faster, and use weapon systems faster.
"The red lines, finally, are over"
Russian military expert Alexander Khrolenko revealed in detail the targets of the Oreshnik strike on May 24, while also predicting a new, much more massive raid: "Moscow has advised foreign diplomats and residents of Kyiv to leave the city. A storm will soon break out": "The central bunker of the state military command is located at a depth of 100 meters under the building of the Presidential Office, at 11 Bankova Street. Two autonomous sections are connected by tunnels between them and with the cabinet, the Arsenal factory, the SBU, and the Ministry of Defense shelters."
It remains to choose the tools
Everything is in the crosshairs of the Armed Forces of Russia. It only remains to choose the tools for... opening the facilities. "In Bila Tserkva, on May 24, the Command Center of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and NATO was hit with 36 units of Oreshnik. In the Google satellite image, we see that the area of the airbase west of the runway has been covered with frames."
The warning from Belarus
In response to the threats, the "terrible" warning of the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, was also heard: "The Armed Forces of Ukraine may have identified 500 targets. We have one target, very serious, with precise coordinates, and indeed not at all far from Belarus. They themselves understand this." The secretary of the Security Council of Belarus, Alexander Volfovich, confirmed: the West is openly preparing for war. All strategic documents provide for the start of a war in Europe by 2030. This is what all their military budgets are aimed at. This is an aggressive militaristic policy of the West, which today aims precisely at undermining peace and security.
"Summer" can end the war
The summer campaign will have an aerial character, argues former Belarusian MP and journalist Alexander Zimovsky: "The sides in the summer campaign of 2026 will focus on gaining superiority and dominance in the air." At a tactical level, the expert believes, the task will be the complete zeroing of the possibility of any infantry movement within the range of the drones. As aircraft are modernized, this zone will continue to expand. At an operational level, the war will focus on gaining full control over the adversary's communications. At a strategic level, "the sides will reach parity in medium-range strike assets," estimates Zimovsky.
Kyiv to ash
In the zone of the special military operation, the expert notes, a sharp increase in the scale of drone and missile use is recorded, which is transforming the character of military operations in the air. The occasion for the current analysis was the unprecedented, in intensity, wave of raids on June 2, 2026. The key factor in changing the tactics of the sides was the saturation of the raids with false targets to overload the radars. The use of Russian UAV Parodiya allows the simulation of heavy missile signatures, forcing the anti-aircraft defense to consume its limited ammunition stocks.
Terrifying attack with 73 missiles and 656 drones
The Russian attack — according to data released by the Ukrainians — was carried out with 73 missiles and 656 drones. As announced by the Air Force of Ukraine, 642 of the 729 aerial targets were shot down during the night attack. According to the service, of the 73 missiles launched, it was possible to intercept 40. Specifically, 11 of the 33 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, 26 of the 27 Kh-101 cruise missiles, and 3 of the 5 Kalibr missiles were shot down. All eight Zircon missiles, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, were not intercepted. Furthermore, Ukrainian military forces stated that 602 of the 656 attack drones were hit. Strikes from 30 ballistic missiles and 3 cruise missiles, as well as from 33 attack drones, were recorded in 38 locations. Debris from unmanned aerial vehicles fell in another 15 spots.
Russian Ministry of Defense: All targets achieved, response to the Ukrainians' terrorism
Russian forces launched a massive strike with high-precision, long-range weapons early on June 2 against facilities of Ukraine's defense-industrial complex, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation announced. "Tonight, in response to the terrorist actions of the Kyiv regime, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation launched a massive strike with high-precision long-range air, land, and sea-based weapons, including hypersonic aero-ballistic missiles and attack unmanned aerial vehicles, against enterprises of the defense-industrial complex in Kyiv, Zaporizhia, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk, as well as in the Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, and Sumy regions, against fuel storage facilities and transport infrastructure of Ukraine used for the benefit of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as against military airfields," the statement reads. In addition, military airfields were hit, as well as fuel and transport infrastructure facilities of Ukraine that are used for the benefit of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, all targets were achieved and the designated facilities were hit.
End... the nightmare - In Ukraine, they foresee residents of Kyiv fleeing the city
Zelensky will not be able to stop the massive Russian attacks, estimated his former spokesperson Yulia Mendel. "Desperate voices are begging for an end to this nightmare. But every appeal to stop this bloodshed is stigmatized as unpatriotic, dangerous, or even 'pro-Russian'," she said. In her view, this situation will continue until something truly unthinkable happens, while more and more families will silently prepare their things and plan their flight. During the night, power outages were reported in part of the right bank of Kyiv and in the suburbs.
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