A series of humiliating setbacks are hitting US President Donald Trump regarding the Iranian issue. Following his visit to China, where he left empty-handed from meetings with Xi Jinping—who made no commitment to assist in resolving the Iranian crisis or opening the Strait of Hormuz—Trump is seeing his latest move, the blockade of Iranian ports by powerful US naval forces, prove essentially useless.
Iran, in a strategic pivot toward Asia, is activating new overland trade routes through Pakistan to bypass the US maritime blockade. In a development with broader geopolitical and energy implications, Iran is attempting to keep its trade and supply flows to Central Asia and China alive, utilizing a transport network that had remained inactive for nearly two decades.
New land routes via Pakistan
As American naval pressure disrupts Iran's access to the Persian Gulf, Tehran is turning East.
New overland trade routes through Pakistan now allow goods destined for the Islamic Republic to bypass the US blockade, which is already entering its fifth week, maintaining Iran's access to regional markets and potentially opening a new trade corridor to Central Asia. Last month, Pakistan's Ministry of Commerce issued a technical and relatively unnoticed regulatory decision, known as SRO 691, which established six transit routes for cargo reaching Iran from third countries via Pakistani territory.
A 20-year-old plan revived
Reviving a plan that had been dormant for nearly two decades, the Pakistani government announced that the six corridors will connect the ports of Karachi, Port Qasim, and Gwadar with the Iranian border crossings of Gabd and Taftanthrough the Balochistan region. The shortest route, connecting Gwadar to Gabd, brings the Iranian border within a two-to-three-hour drive, compared to up to 18 hours from Karachi.
The announcement, which offered a significant breathing space to both Pakistan and Iran, came just days after the collapse of the second round of US–Iran talks and while American naval pressure on Iranian ports had severely disrupted maritime trade.
Economic lifeline for Iran
Reports indicated that thousands of containers destined for Iran remained stranded at the port of Karachi, while war risk insurance premiums near the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf skyrocketed, leading many shipping companies to suspend cargo transport to Iran.
In statements, Fatemeh Aman, an independent analyst specializing in Iran and South Asia, said that "Iran can benefit from these corridors. The Islamic Republic can reduce some of its reliance on vulnerable maritime routes and maintain limited regional trade under conditions of sanctions and regional tensions."
A plan no longer dormant
The legal basis for the corridor dates back to a bilateral road transport agreement between Iran and Pakistan in 2008, which, however, remained inactive for years. According to Pakistani media, one reason for the delay was Tehran's concern that activating the Pakistani route would strengthen the port of Gwadar at the expense of Chabahar, the Iranian port in the Gulf of Oman developed with Indian support.
For his part, Mostafa Modabber, an analyst for South Asia, estimates that "routes through Pakistan may not fundamentally change Iran's economy, but they can help Tehran maintain trade flows, retain indirect access to regional markets, and reduce some of the pressure caused by sanctions and maritime restrictions." However, these calculations changed after the US–Israel war and the subsequent blockade.
Corridor to Central Asia
Since Chabahar was also affected by the instability linked to the conflict, Iranian officials reportedly gave discreet support to the reactivation of the land corridor. The timing of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's visit to Islamabad—where he met with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir just as the corridor was being announced—underscored the urgent importance of the project.
The significance of the corridor, however, extends beyond access to Iran itself. Once cargo enters Iran via Gabd-Rimdan, it can move north through the Iranian road network toward Central Asia. Pakistani customs officials reported that trial shipments, including refrigerated meat cargo destined for Uzbekistan, have already used the route.
Bypassing naval pressure
This corridor highlights the limits of a naval blockade. The American naval blockade imposed on April 13 targeted ships attempting to approach Iranian ports. However, goods arriving at Pakistani ports from China and other countries can be unloaded outside Iranian jurisdiction and transported by truck into Iran, avoiding both Iranian maritime routes and the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian officials have acknowledged that Tehran is increasingly relying on land routes through Pakistan, Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, as well as via the Caspian Sea, to maintain its imports.
The US stance
The agreement also operates in a legally gray area. Pakistan does not officially implement US sanctions against Iran, while parts of the sanctions framework still allow certain non-US trade transactions with Iran, provided sanctioned entities are avoided.
Washington has so far not expressed public objection to the corridor. Asked about it, Trump stated only that "he knows everything about it," without further clarification. Modabber estimated that the corridor reflects an adjustment to wartime conditions rather than a permanent economic transformation.
Strategic importance
"Iran is under severe economic and trade pressure, and in such conditions, any official or unofficial trade corridor can acquire strategic importance," he said. "These land routes are more of a tool for economic 'breathing' under pressure than a major economic transformation."
At the same time, however, he warned of serious obstacles. "Pakistan itself faces weak transport infrastructure, corruption in parts of the customs system, insecurity in border areas, and the influence of unofficial smuggling networks," he noted. "Furthermore, Pakistan will hardly risk an open confrontation with Washington if the US decides to intensify pressure on Iran-related trade."
Iran's broader regional ambitions
Iranian officials are increasingly promoting the country as a regional transit hub connecting the Persian Gulf with Central Asia and Russia. On April 26, Reza Akbari, head of Iran's Road Maintenance and Transportation Organization, stated that over 16.6 million tons of goods were moved through Iran's land borders during the previous Iranian calendar year.
The corridor through Pakistan could strengthen this strategy by more directly connecting Iran with two major regional trade networks: the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which connects Iran with Russia and India. For China, which remains one of Iran's key trading partners, the route offers a way to maintain supply chains without full dependence on maritime routes vulnerable to US naval pressure.
Do not overstate
Fatemeh Aman emphasized, however, that the importance of the corridor should not be overstated. "These routes are more of an adjustment tool than a solution to Iran's broader economic problems," she said.
"For Iran, these routes are primarily about economic resilience and diversification. They can support cross-border trade, regional trade, and alternative transport routes in times of pressure in the Persian Gulf." She added: "Land routes cannot compete with the scale, speed, or profitability of maritime trade. They may reduce vulnerability to some extent, but they will hardly fundamentally change Iran's economic problems under sanctions and conflict." Aman also noted that Pakistan's balancing act creates uncertainty as to how much the corridor can grow. "Islamabad faces its own economic constraints and must balance its relations with Iran, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, and the United States," she noted.
Pakistan's delicate balance
For Pakistan, the corridor is simultaneously an economic opportunity and a political risk. Islamabad has long sought to become a transit hub connecting South with Central Asia, but instability in Afghanistan and repeated border closures undermined these ambitions. The corridor to Iran could enhance the importance of the port of Gwadar and support broader Chinese infrastructure projects linked to CPEC.
Economic risks
However, deeper trade ties with Iran also involve economic risks. Pakistani banks and logistics companies involved in cargo to Iran may face secondary US sanctions if Washington deems that the corridor facilitates sanctions evasion.
Even after the formal creation of the route, many containers stranded in Karachi continued to move slowly, as banks and transport companies acted with great caution. Meanwhile, Pakistan's infrastructure in Balochistan remains underdeveloped, customs coordination limited, and the potential for more intense US economic pressure persists.
Iran seeks alternatives
Nevertheless, the corridor reflects a broader regional shift already underway. As pressure increases in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is seeking alternatives to its traditional maritime routes. Pakistan, despite its own economic and political constraints, increasingly sees Iran as an important western trade route.
China, for its part, is monitoring the formation of a corridor that could reduce dependence on the vulnerable maritime routes of the Gulf. The thousands of containers remaining stranded in Karachi may seem like a small detail in the general conflict. However, they are also an indication of how quickly regional trade routes can adapt when traditional paths become contested.
www.bankingnews.gr
Readers’ Comments