If there is one factor connecting the dramatic unpopularity of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron, it is their political isolation. Neither of the two communicates freely with their dissatisfied voters, while neither possesses a close circle of advisors willing to deliver unpleasant news. Macron is a creation of the French elite and has never truly "mingled" with the common people, except in carefully orchestrated events. Merz, on the other hand, maintains the grand arrogance of private capital, yet without having cultivated a circle of experienced, trusted advisors to keep him politically grounded.
The example of Modi
Every leader needs partners willing to disagree with them and propose better policy alternatives. However, Merz and Macron prefer to remain isolated within the privileges of power, choosing to ignore the angry protests of ordinary citizens. Contrast them, for example, with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. After the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost its parliamentary majority in 2024, it returned triumphantly last week with a sweeping victory in the heart of West Bengal, a region previously dominated by the Trinamool Congress. How did Modi achieve this spectacular turnaround? According to the Financial Times, Modi possesses a "relentless focus on grassroots issues […] and a determination to stay close to the concerns of voters." Pramit Pal Chaudhuri of the Eurasia Group states: "Modi often brings in people with different views and lets them disagree […] He is fully committed to receiving contrary opinions and multiple sources of information." A brilliant innovation: responding to popular discontent by... listening to different views and staying close to the concerns of voters. Not exactly the political equivalent of splitting the atom, but apparently beyond the political capabilities of Macron or Merz.
Illegal migration is changing the landscape
The adoption of opposition issues is a timeless method of political survival. For instance, Angela Merkel dominated for sixteen years against the Social Democrats by adopting their key policies on social spending and the environment. Giorgia Meloni neutralized the opposition with a mild acceptance of the European Union. Instead of incorporating elements of the opposition, Macron and Merz prefer to label them "fascists," thereby excluding any cooperation and making any adoption of their policies impossible. Dismissing a critical issue like migration behind a political firewall simply strengthens the opposition and hands dissatisfied voters over to the National Rally and Alternative for Germany (AfD). Unlike their leaders, German and French taxpayers are not protected by the privileges of power and have perceived the steady degradation of their standard of living and personal safety. German cities face problems with young migrants living on social benefits, including free housing and a monthly allowance.
Instead of working and learning the new language, they prefer to spend their days idle in city centers, committing petty crimes and harassing young women. Despite his calls for the repatriation of those who do not wish to integrate, Chancellor Merz has failed to deport a significant number of individuals, even convicted criminals or failed asylum seekers. Every new piece of legislation to accelerate deportations is blocked by his difficult alliance with the Social Democrats, who show greater respect for the preferences of the out-of-power Greens than to those of their government partner. President Macron never recovered from his harsh clash with the working classes when they revolted over a proposed increase in fuel taxes. Forcing through pension reform by decree convinced French voters that Macron was more loyal to the dictates of the Eurozone than to the citizens who elected him, destroying any hope of restructuring the stagnant French economy. A large number of migrants from North Africa remain unintegrated and are more interested in hounding Jews than in finding work. Neither France nor Germany offers an attractive cultural ideal to new arrivals, who often prefer Islamist triumphalism and Sharia over constitutional governance.
"It's the economy, stupid"
Beyond the lack of "popular contact" or any unifying national vision, both Macron and Merz face grim economic prospects. Unlike Modi, they cannot distribute new social benefits to voters: existing social welfare obligations are already unsustainable, while new defense spending will displace any new vote-buying programs. Macron failed to revitalize the French economy through significant reforms and faces a deficit and debt crisis that threatens the integrity of the Eurozone. The German economy has stagnated and shows no signs of adjusting to a world of expensive energy and shrinking export markets. Neither leader appears capable of tackling the regulatory "monsters" that strangle growth and innovation.
Trapped in the technocratic labyrinth
Deeply trapped in their own labyrinths, Merz and Macron continue to believe in technocratic competence as an antidote to populism. However, neither has managed to design functional policies to revitalize their economies or to ensure that migrants either integrate or return to their homelands. Failed technocrats are always vulnerable to patriotic leaders, and thus we see the National Rally and the AfD soaring in the polls. Jordan Bardella leads in presidential polls, while the AfD is preparing to sweep a series of regional elections this year, with realistic hopes even for a future first-place finish in the Bundestag! Technocrats who have spent their entire professional lives within the dominant European center-left environment despise the spontaneous national and cultural sense of pride projected by patriots.
This contempt deprives them of the ability to combine their policies with a unifying patriotic vision that could convince a hesitant electorate to accept drastic reforms. Charles de Gaulle would never have made this mistake. His campaign to revise the Constitution and launch a comprehensive industrial renewal was embedded in his confident vision for the greatness of France. He proposed to make France great again, and France accepted his proposal! Merz and Macron are smaller men, more the descendants of senior bureaucrats than of great leaders. They are administrative elites: capable of governing decently in good times, but incapable of inspiring the strong national identity required in times of crisis. Disillusioned voters are looking for reasons to believe in their homeland again and a candidate who offers their country a place in the future. Policies without patriotism fail these tests. One suspects that the future patriotic successors of Macron and Merz will not fail!
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